The 4000 comes from the SEAS earnings report. Others have suggested the actual number is closer to 3000 for Busch, potentially, but we technically have no idea what KD is doing based on what’s opening there.
COVID-19’s Impacts on BGW
- Thread starter WDWRLD
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The 4000 comes from the SEAS earnings report. Others have suggested the actual number is closer to 3000 for Busch, potentially, but we technically have no idea what KD is doing based on what’s opening there.
The 4000 comes from what BGW said was their capacity for CC. It's just the highest that we know so thanks to some poor reporting they assume that's the max a theme park can have.
The 3000 number people mention is from the last weekend of Halloween Harvest when the park had a smaller footprint.
Maybe this has already been discussed, but it seems unlikely that the pandemic will slow down by the start of the 2021 season. And it seems unlikely many people will have the vaccine by then. What do you think the impact will be on BGW? I can't imagine the state will allow them to have a higher attendance than 2020. Can SeaWorld withstand another bad year like 2020?
You might not be wrong, but I wouldn't be so sure that things will be exactly as they are now. "Regular season" opening day is still almost three months away. According to this article, vaccinations for priority groups (frontline workers, elderly, and immunocompromised Americans) are projected to be done by March or April, and vaccinations of young, healthy people may become widely available as early as May.
Those projections may change, but depending on how the vaccination rollout continues, I think it's entirely possible that we may see some sort of easing of restrictions on the parks by opening day. Things almost certainly won't resemble normal operations, but with much of the at-risk population vaccinated by the time opening day rolls around, I wonder if we might see capacity restrictions raised at least slightly.
On the other hand, if things in Virginia continue at the current rate (understanding this is probably holiday-driven), the government might not be able to ease restrictions for a while. I think the question is how long will it take to address the current numbers (if people are even willing to change their behaviors) and whether there will be enough vaccines by March.
I think it's important to note that the current guidelines actually would allow the park to have more than the 4000 they are currently allowing for CC. The park is choosing to not open everything and keeping portions of the park closed which limits their overall attendance possibility. It's not unreasonable to think that if they fully opened every country and ride they could be looking at 8-10,000 as their max capacity under the current guidelines.
Yeah, if the current restrictions remain the guidelines, I think they’ll ”open” in March as planned. I think there’s a breaking point at which the “keep paying and you’ll get free months eventually” situation becomes untenable, and March is probably about that time. It will still be capacity limited, but to the levels they were willing to accept to open last summer.
But as Nicole notes, there’s a decent chance that we might see some additional restrictions in place in the instance that the current trajectory becomes a burden on the system that even vaccinations can’t keep in check. But provided we don’t see a reversal in the guidance, I think they’ll pull off the bandaid in March.
But as Nicole notes, there’s a decent chance that we might see some additional restrictions in place in the instance that the current trajectory becomes a burden on the system that even vaccinations can’t keep in check. But provided we don’t see a reversal in the guidance, I think they’ll pull off the bandaid in March.
This past Saturday marked the one year mark since we were at BGW. I'm 69 and wife is close. She has autoimmune disease and I almost lost her a few years ago. For those who know BP hers dropped to 30/20. Today was the first day we have left the house since the first week of December and we only leave to go to the grocery store. I envy the people who could go to the special events and enjoy your time there. Just not worth it to us until things greatly improve. Before you get too excited about a vaccine I'll tell you what we have experienced. Wife's doctor says by all means she should get vaccine as soon as possible. That same doctor said they had no idea of how, when or where she could get the vaccine. Personally, this whole vaccine distribution is so screwed up that we don't hold out any hope for a vaccine until mid summer at the earliest. What is so frustrating is states like Florida are already vaccinating their at risk citizens and general population. I just don't see the tunnel entrance. Much less the light at the end of it. I guess at some point BGW will have to let the clock start ticking on membership dates, stein club memberships and dining plans again. I'm sad that we will be watching those days tick away but I understand the position the BGW is in.
Not to get to off track on this but to speak a little to the vaccine situation. I read an interesting article about 3 weeks ago that I have not been able to refine that talked in depth about the vaccine role out plans and was rather critical of the guidelines for use as they were laid out at the time. It was written by the man that had been head of the Army's Medical Research under Carter, Reagan and Bush so presumable a fairly reliable source for information. As he explained during the Cold War a WMD caused pandemic was a concern so he and his staff were involved in crafting what the response to a pandemic would be. He described two types of vaccination responses Triage Response where you look for those who have a higher likely hood of getting seriously sick and passing from the disease and Vector Vaccination where you only look at two factors how likely are you to get it and how many people are you likely to give it to if you get it. Basically he went on to say Triage response is both significantly slower and less effective at slowing and stopping the virus. The example he gave if you have 200 does you can either go to a nursing home and vaccinate 200 residents who are high risk but also largely are isolated to self contact inside the facility or you can go out to 2 grocery and vaccinate the staff there. Seems like an easy choice save those 200 lives right? Here is the other side to that travelling through that grocery store each day are thousands of people who are coming into contact with that staff in the course of 3 to 5 days that someone might be spreading it without knowing they may come into contact with several thousand people. For the sake of this example Say 3,000 10-15 percent get it from that contact That means that 300-450 get it. There is a good chance that about 25 percent of those may be high risk meaning that possibly as many as 110 high risk just caught it and that is only in the first carrier spread. Would that shows is how quickly the 200 saved by vaccinating that nursing home are erased by loses other places. He further went on to say that as hard as it is we need to use the vaccine where it has the most impact right now and use other methods such as isolating to try to protect those with higher risk. I know that is not easy to hear but I hope that helps to explain some of what is going on and why.
Wow!! So I guess it's okay to let the older population just die off. Why not?! We take resources away with our Medicare and SS. So yeah, that seems like a good plan! I think the way several people "Liked" the post they feel the same way.
Sorry, can't say I agree with that statement.
Sorry, can't say I agree with that statement.
Using the hypothetical 200 in a nursing home environment example, the caregivers that regularly leave should be immediately vaccinated but then also continue wearing masks, distancing where possible, etc.
Residents would take the same distancing and mask wearing precautions where possible, and get vaccinated as soon as possible after the caregivers.
Visitors would be limited and forced to follow all precautions as possible if any are even allowed on property.
There is no intent to leave the residents to die, no malice, no 'saving on healthcare costs', etc; however with the residents being isolated away from the majority of folks whom can spread the virus, and those that are in contact are vaccinated and following precautions to further mitigate the risk.
The front-line retail worker example plays into how complex the decision making is - theoretically the caregivers are also vaccinated as critical workers, but that doesn't mean any contractor (maintenance), cook, visitors (if any are allowed) or delivery people (mail, bulk items, etc) also could be vaccinated first. Assuming they're all following the necessary precautions, a further mitigation point would be to vaccinate their more regular points of contact such as the front-line retail workers whom could easily contract the virus and then spread it while being asymptomatic until they're either tested or they fall ill and start receiving treatment (assuming they're financially comfortable enough and their employer doesn't make it hell to get the time off - most low-level retail employees can't really afford to lose the income from what I can tell).
Obviously, full vaccinations for everyone as part of a well-organized swift rollout would be preferred, but since we aren't even close to that yet this is the kind of thing we have to deal with.
Residents would take the same distancing and mask wearing precautions where possible, and get vaccinated as soon as possible after the caregivers.
Visitors would be limited and forced to follow all precautions as possible if any are even allowed on property.
There is no intent to leave the residents to die, no malice, no 'saving on healthcare costs', etc; however with the residents being isolated away from the majority of folks whom can spread the virus, and those that are in contact are vaccinated and following precautions to further mitigate the risk.
The front-line retail worker example plays into how complex the decision making is - theoretically the caregivers are also vaccinated as critical workers, but that doesn't mean any contractor (maintenance), cook, visitors (if any are allowed) or delivery people (mail, bulk items, etc) also could be vaccinated first. Assuming they're all following the necessary precautions, a further mitigation point would be to vaccinate their more regular points of contact such as the front-line retail workers whom could easily contract the virus and then spread it while being asymptomatic until they're either tested or they fall ill and start receiving treatment (assuming they're financially comfortable enough and their employer doesn't make it hell to get the time off - most low-level retail employees can't really afford to lose the income from what I can tell).
Obviously, full vaccinations for everyone as part of a well-organized swift rollout would be preferred, but since we aren't even close to that yet this is the kind of thing we have to deal with.
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You missed the entire point of what he was trying to say...
He's not saying that they should get resources taking away. He's also but saying that the elderly population in general shouldn't get it. The argument is about who should get access to the vaccine first. Do you give it to people who by their employment are in contact with a lot of individuals like clerks at the grocery store and hospital employees or give it to people living in a nursing home. They could in theory infect a lot of people by being asymptomatic and interacting with customers/patients normally at their jobs. Having them being vaccinated could in theory reduce spread in the community more than a largely already secluded population in a nursing home.
The argument is about what is more beneficial to the community as a whole. Honestly, I'm not sure which route is the better way to go, but I can see the logic in both decisions.
yes in the article I cited staff at the nursing homes were on the first round list with vaccinate. It wasn't about letting them die it was about having other tools available to provide temporary protection for them and using a currently limited tool of the vaccine in a way that gives the most protection to society in general
which increases protection to everyone including the most at risk in the general population
like @BGWnut said I am also not sure which is best but wanted to explain the logic behind what we are seeing with the roll out. honestly when I read the article my main take was thank God I don't have to make those decisions.
Governor Northam is going to give an update this morning on the Covid situation. He may lift some restrictions. The below text is copied from the WAVY.com article about it. Wonder if that last sentence could be a predictor of increased capacity limits at the park.
" Northam has recently made some changes to restrictions. Last week he increased the cap on spectators allowed at youth sporting events to 250 people with social distancing. He is expected to address larger sport venue regulations this week."
" Northam has recently made some changes to restrictions. Last week he increased the cap on spectators allowed at youth sporting events to 250 people with social distancing. He is expected to address larger sport venue regulations this week."
Kind of blurry, but from today's Governor talk, looks like park restrictions won't be changing next month. Hopefully current trends continue and more is allowed in April.
