I have once again updated the Something Not Entirely Unlike a Crowd Calendar.
It appears to me that the dynamic pricing system is working, and people are choosing to buy tickets on historically slow days, relieving crowding on historically heavy days.
Because I do not know the final ticket prices for the past two weekends, I deleted the data i those cells. Similarly, I only left the shading on the two days when I was in the park and could judge crowd levels.
As a reminder, here is the information on how to interpret the color-coding. The most important thing to remember is that the color of the numbers reflects the park's crowd predictions, while the cell shading is based on dated ticket sales.
What the colors mean:
1. The current prices are colored, based on the park's crowd level projections. Green numbers all started as $15/$25 tickets; yellow were $20/$30; and red started as $25/$35. We can infer that BGW expects Green Number days to be the lightest, and Red Number days to be the heaviest.
2. The table cells are shaded based on the influence we believe dated ticket sales have had on likely crowd levels SO FAR. As more people buy tickets, these colors may change. Yellow shaded cells are currently on track to be heavier days than Green. We have now added Red, as well.
Caveats:
1. Sales are continuing, and current Green shaded days could easily turn Yellow or Red.
2. There are some days, which have historically been very crowded that do not yet have a lot of ticket sales.
3. I anticipate more sales for the last few weeks, as those dates get closer.
4. I cannot predict the affect of passes and undated tickets on the crowd levels. That is why I am still tracking the original prediction in addition to the ticket sales. I believe the park's initial pricing took into account predicted crowd levels, including pass members and undated ticket holders.
How to Interpret the Calendar:
1. I recommend taking into account both the Number Color and Cell Shading, when picking which days to go to CT.
2. The number under the current cost represents how much the price has increased in response to sales, since the Flash Sale ended. So, +5 means the ticket now costs $5 more than when it first became available (excluding the $10 increase immediately after the Flash Sale).
3. Based on current data, from lightest to heaviest:
a. Green/Green (Green Number/Green Shading)
b. Yellow/Green (Yellow Number/Green Shading)
c. Green/Yellow (Green Number/Yellow Shading)
d. Red/Yellow (Red Number/Yellow Shading)
e. Red/Red (Red Number/Red Shading)