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If you do the math of closing SFA, x% of their guests shift to KD at little to no additional operating cost to KD. If that additional KD revenue is greater than the current operating profit of SFA, which is pretty likely, combined SF comes out ahead.

I'm sure Six Flags has market research or whatever that massively trumps my antidotal impressions, but from where I'm sitting, I'll honestly be very surprised to see much traffic at all shift from SFA to KD. Feels like Hershey and even BGW somehow manage more DC area market penetration/mindshare than KD. Maybe that will change in the years ahead if Six Flags invests more marketing dollars into the DC region, but right now, I hope Six Flags isn't making this call in hopes of seeing much/any increase at KD. I worry the company underestimates just how known and popular Hershey and BGW are in the national capitol region...

But again, I could be totally wrong—just the vibe I get from talking to folks in and around DC.

I wish they had at least given SFA a chance to experiment with some market synergy. I can see where the existence of SFA—even if it were just a notably downsized park—could have driven more pass sales for Six Flags in the region and, in turn, more traffic to Dorney and KD... but I guess we'll never know now.
 
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I'm sure Six Flags has market research or whatever that massively trumps my antidotal impressions, but from where I'm sitting, I'll honestly be very surprised to see much traffic at all shift from SFA to KD. Feels like Hershey and even BGW somehow manage more DC area market penetration/mindshare than KD. Maybe that will change in the years ahead if Six Flags invests more marketing dollars into the DC region, but right now, I hope Six Flags isn't making this call in hopes of seeing much/any increase at KD. I worry the company underestimates just how known and popular Hershey and BGW are in the national capitol region...

But again, I could be totally wrong—just the vibe I get from talking to folks in and around DC.

I wish they had at least given SFA a chance to experiment with some market synergy. I can see where the existence of SFA—even if it were just a notably downsized park—could have driven more pass sales for Six Flags in the region and, in turn, more traffic to Dorney and KD... but I guess we'll never know now.
The only consideration in this calculation is SFA's existing customer base, particularly pass holders. Their choices become KD, HP, other local water parks, or do other activities (anyone already satisfied with SFA is probably not driving past KD to go to BGW).

I'd assume SF has enough purchasing and location data to predict pretty well what volume of customers would shift to KD vs other activities, and I'd assume the numbers are favorable enough to justify closing the entirety of SFA.
 
I know there was a LOT of overlap between SFGAdv and SFA with customer base. I can only imagine that with KD even closer the same will hold true and they won't lose too many passholders over this. Especially if for 2026 the passes are good for all parks chain wide without the $99 surcharge for adding the non-legacy parks. It sounds like the update and integration of the app is a step towards chain wide systems rolling out for passes and dining passes to work across all parks next year.
 
Their choices become KD, HP, other local water parks, or do other activities (anyone already satisfied with SFA is probably not driving past KD to go to BGW).
If you're a local, SFA passes would be a steal for cheap entertainment. The question is, are people willing to drive father to a park on a regular basis, or make enough visits to justify a pass?

I think it becomes “We were passholders at SFA but now we go to [Hershey/Great Adventure/King’s Dominion] once a year.” Or people were going to SFA with a pass AND those parks once a year anyway, and now you just lost out on selling a season pass to that family, etc.
 
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I'm sure Six Flags has market research or whatever that massively trumps my antidotal impressions, but from where I'm sitting, I'll honestly be very surprised to see much traffic at all shift from SFA to KD. Feels like Hershey and even BGW somehow manage more DC area market penetration/mindshare than KD. Maybe that will change in the years ahead if Six Flags invests more marketing dollars into the DC region, but right now, I hope Six Flags isn't making this call in hopes of seeing much/any increase at KD. I worry the company underestimates just how known and popular Hershey and BGW are in the national capitol region...

But again, I could be totally wrong—just the vibe I get from talking to folks in and around DC.

I wish they had at least given SFA a chance to experiment with some market synergy. I can see where the existence of SFA—even if it were just a notably downsized park—could have driven more pass sales for Six Flags in the region and, in turn, more traffic to Dorney and KD... but I guess we'll never know now.
Supporting this view a quick travel time research finds from SFA KD is only about a 15 minute shorter distance then Hershey. For any SFA pass member living North or East of the park Hershey will become their closest theme park next year.
 
Supporting this view a quick travel time research finds from SFA KD is only about a 15 minute shorter distance then Hershey. For any SFA pass member living North or East of the park Hershey will become their closest theme park next year.
And beyond that it’s fighting the DC -> Fredricksburg traffic on 95 where going to Hershey is no where near as bad.
 
And beyond that it’s fighting the DC -> Fredricksburg traffic on 95 where going to Hershey is no where near as bad.
For Southern MD they can take 301 to KD which isn't too bad except around Waldorf. NoVA residents are going to be closer to KD unless they are in Loudoun county near 15. Anyone north of SFA would be better going up 83 to HP than trying to go to KD regularly.
 
For Southern MD they can take 301 to KD which isn't too bad except around Waldorf. NoVA residents are going to be closer to KD unless they are in Loudoun county near 15. Anyone north of SFA would be better going up 83 to HP than trying to go to KD regularly.
Yea they are closer to all of that, but being a NoVA/Annapolis resident for 4 years now….I don’t want to go south at all unless I absolutely have to. The few months I lived with my now wife in Arlington I took day trips to Hershey and got there quicker than KD even though KD distance wise was much closer.

Also - 301 isn’t much faster than 95. Especially if you start hitting red lights. So going to KD you really only have 1 option.

Going to Hershey I have multiple ways of 222, 83, heck 74->72->322, get to Lancaster and go 283->743 to get into Hershey. Pulling in NoVA you can swing out to 15 around Fredrick and get up to Hershey that way, you have 270 out to 15 if you want.

In fact I made both drives recently as I had to be in Harrisburg 3 weeks ago on a Thursday and it took me 1:45 from Annapolis, and this past weekend I wanted to make a last KD visit before moving and it took me 2:35 on a Friday from Annapolis.

Heck, even Six Flags Great Adventure is an easier trip for me than KD is and it’s about 10-20 minutes longer than getting to KD if I do 95 with the Key Bridge closed, and about the same if I were to do 301-95.
 
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And beyond that it’s fighting the DC -> Fredricksburg traffic on 95
Scared Keri Russell GIF by Searchlight Pictures
 
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I'm from Southern Maryland myself, originally from Calvert, now in St Mary's. I take 301 all the way to Dawn Blvd to get to KD every time. I avoid 207 to I95 as it isn't that much of a difference, but I will occasionally take it on the way back from the park. It's roughly under a 2 hour drive for me. 1 hour 45 minutes at the most. I honestly enjoy the drive too. Most people I know always say they visit KD over SFA, despite it being closer than KD.
 
For decades I've lived equidistant at two hours each from KD, SFA and HP. It's always been only a few minutes difference, and that depending on traffic. I've been to KD and HP each about 4X more than SFA. HP is pretty much an annual must, while KD was but has been pretty spotty since Volcano went away (that will change now with the work they are doing in Jungle-X and elsewhere in the park).

If it weren't for Batwing, Superman, and Mind Eraser/Skywinder, I might never make the trek to SFA. The clientelle IS the main reason that the park is not so fun, but it has zero to do with color or ethnicity.
 
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In talking about the percentage of people that will shift season passholders from SFA to KD, I wonder how much of an impact cancelling KD's Winterfest influenced the choice. People have said how the announcement of cancelling Winterfest lead to record passholder cancellations in the chain. I wonder if corporate said "well, we can make up that percentage lost just by having x% of SFA shift over to KD."

I think SFA was always going to close, with the way this company is in dire straights, but I wonder if that choice alone had any influence over "well, you might as well do it now, those KD passholders are lost, but we can get a new group back AND sell land/stop eating operating costs at SFA."
 
As a counterpoint to what a lot of people have said above, as a NOVA resident I despise going north. I can be bullied into going to Pennsylvania or NJ or whatever, but 9 times out of 10, I will brave 95 South over dealing with the Beltway and whatever shitshow is happening in Maryland.

Anecdotally, everyone I have ever spoken to in the area about parks goes to BGW. Neither SFA nor KD ever come up.
 
As a counterpoint to what a lot of people have said above, as a NOVA resident I despise going north. I can be bullied into going to Pennsylvania or NJ or whatever, but 9 times out of 10, I will brave 95 South over dealing with the Beltway and whatever shitshow is happening in Maryland.

Anecdotally, everyone I have ever spoken to in the area about parks goes to BGW. Neither SFA nor KD ever come up.
I lived in NOVA for a few years but no matter which side of the beltway I live, I know I’d always avoid going through DC no matter what. In fact that’s what stopped me from ever going to SFA. If I lived in Maryland I would probably never step foot in VA again
 
Maryland traffic is indeed a shitshow. 100%
Every time. I always either get stuck:

1. behind the slow person with bumper damage
2. in front of the impatient person who's trying to tailgate me when I have no place to get out of their way
3. behind a moving truck with loose furniture precariously hanging out the back\
4.behind a truck trying and failing to pass another truck

(This also applies to I-76 between King of Prussia and downtown Philly, with a lot more Jersey passing)
 
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Clearly none of you have experience with Connecticut driving doing 90 on 95 with Dunks in hand, laptop open, and on an earnings call.
 
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