News SeaWorld Makes $3.4 Billion Takeover Bid for Cedar Fair

[mwhinva]

No but if the stock price drops relatively fast to near or below the pre offer price it could definitely be a sign to other parties that the unit holders are interested in selling and you potentially could see another group make a bid for purchase.

That is a possibility.

But, keep in mind it is probably the "get rich quick" bunch that is dumping the units they snapped up at the announcement of the SEAS offer. Again units/stocks are LONG-TERM investments. But, there is a certain percentage of those short-term gain folks that buy low to hopefully sell high in a short period of time. They are like ants scampering away from the picnic that is no longer offering any scraps to devour.

So that leaves us with the serious long-term CF investors. I would not be surprised if Cedar Fair management put out some sort of electronic survey, with questions based on their financial advisors advice, to get the "pulse" of those investors opinion of the offer. If that were the case, it doesn't sound like the majoriy were in favor. That could, with other reviewed financial advisor infomation, swayed CF to nix the offer.

Heck, SEAS could go after the Six Flags chain. I always wanted to go to a Busch Flags park!

 

[BGWnut]

Well managed or poorly managed, that is the question.

I don't see anything "poorly managed" at KD that stood out to me. Cedar Fair's directives was to have as much of the park chain operating; but, with limited operating hours/days to compensate for the labor market contraints and supply chain issues. And that was left up to each park based on those conditions in their region of the country.

SEAS wanted to maximize their park chain operating schedule. Leaving rides, attractions, restaurants, and shops closed or rotating open during operating hours as labor and supplies permit.

So the "We're Open" sign is hanging out front and people flood in expecting "normal" operations and not getting anything near that.

Neither of these operating philosophies are ideal. So, it is up to the park goers to face that this is the reality of this type of entertainment experience right now. You adapt or you choose to do something else.

SEAS does have what's should be open and closed on its website for each park. The larger problem is that no one actually looks and assumes everything is open and then gets mad when it's not. Honestly, I think that SEAS had largely been well run during the pandemic, but everyone just has this idea that they are out to screw over guests and that colors how things are viewed. SEAS is definitely not perfect but they are far from poorly run in my opinion.

 

[BGWnut]

That is a possibility.

But, keep in mind it is probably the "get rich quick" bunch that is dumping the units they snapped up at the announcement of the SEAS offer. Again units/stocks are LONG-TERM investments. But, there is a certain percentage of those short-term gain folks that buy low to hopefully sell high in a short period of time. They are like ants scampering away from the picnic that is no longer offering any scraps to devour.

So that leaves us with the serious long-term CF investors. I would not be surprised if Cedar Fair management put out some sort of electronic survey, with questions based on their financial advisors advice, to get the "pulse" of those investors opinion of the offer. If that were the case, it doesn't sound like the majoriy were in favor. That could, with other reviewed financial advisor infomation, swayed CF to nix the offer.

Heck, SEAS could go after the Six Flags chain. I always wanted to go to a Busch Flags park!

If they had done this then they would have had to disclose this communication to the SEC and the public. The SEC has pretty strict laws about communication between investors and the company. This would have produced an SEC filing.

Not to mention that it would have leaked either way. There's no chance that they would have been able to keep it quiet.

You are right that must investors are not in it for the short term. However, it was the short term investors that drove the price, so it won't be surprising to see it go back to the pre offer price.

 

[mwhinva]

SEAS does have what's should be open and closed on its website for each park. The larger problem is that no one actually looks and assumes everything is open and then gets mad when it's not. Honestly, I think that SEAS had largely been well run during the pandemic, but everyone just has this idea that they are out to screw over guests and that colors how things are viewed. SEAS is definitely not perfect but they are far from poorly run in my opinion.

Some folks have to complain because they feel they are entitled to have roses and sunshine 24/7. People also chose to be uninformed.

I was not critiquing SEAS. Just listing the way they wished to operate in COVID times.

 

[warfelg]

SEAS does have what's should be open and closed on its website for each park. The larger problem is that no one actually looks and assumes everything is open and then gets mad when it's not. Honestly, I think that SEAS had largely been well run during the pandemic, but everyone just has this idea that they are out to screw over guests and that colors how things are viewed. SEAS is definitely not perfect but they are far from poorly run in my opinion.

Personally, I think the problem (partially in my rant yesterday) is most invested people (like those that post here) are holding some unrealistic expectations. Constantly I see BGW compared to WDW, DL, UO….like that is such unrealistic expectations.

Personally when I think of BGW expectations I compare it more to HP and SFGA. And it stacks up very well to those parks from my experiences. Operations are similar. Staffing is similar. Randomness of things being closed is similar.

 

[BGWnut]

Some folks have to complain because they feel they are entitled to have roses and sunshine 24/7. People also chose to be uninformed.

I was not critiquing SEAS. Just listing the way they wished to operate in COVID times.

I was not saying that you were necessarily. I was just commenting on the first part about guests coming in uninformed because they expect "normal" operations. I added my opinion on their operations at the end.

 

[rswashdc]

Well managed or poorly managed, that is the question.

I don't see anything "poorly managed" at KD that stood out to me. Cedar Fair's directives was to have as much of the park chain operating; but, with limited operating hours/days to compensate for the labor market contraints and supply chain issues. And that was left up to each park based on those conditions in their region of the country.

SEAS wanted to maximize their park chain operating schedule. Leaving rides, attractions, restaurants, and shops closed or rotating open during operating hours as labor and supplies permit.

So the "We're Open" sign is hanging out front and people flood in expecting "normal" operations and not getting anything near that.

Neither of these operating philosophies are ideal. So, it is up to the park goers to face that this is the reality of this type of entertainment experience right now. You adapt or you choose to do something else.

Having visited both several times, KD’s approach was much better for managing expectations and providing a consistent pleasant experience. BGW was a total crap shoot that ranged from really nice to really awful.

 

[mwhinva]

If they had done this then they would have had to disclose this communication to the SEC and the public. The SEC has pretty strict laws about communication between investors and the company. This would have produced an SEC filing.

Not to mention that it would have leaked either way. There's no chance that they would have been able to keep it quiet.

You are right that must investors are not in it for the short term. However, it was the short term investors that drove the price, so it won't be surprising to see it go back to the pre offer price.

As I noted before, I am not a business major, thanks for the clarification.

I pretty much stated that short term investors were the majority causing the current price fluxuation.

For a long-term perspective, just 3 years ago CF units were trading between $68-$74 each. It would be interesting know what the unit price could be 3 years into the future.

Unless there is some major underlining fanancial issues with Cedar Fair that would impact value long term, more than likely the unit price will go up based on the post COVID labor market recovering and supply chain issues being ironed out.

 

[Zachary]

Apparently SEAS was only willing to go to $63 per share.

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Given many analysts were saying $70 per share was a likely minimum, SEAS wasn't willing to negotiate much it doesn't sound like.

 

[b.mac]

Even with Cedar Fair's relative lack of performance compared to its competitors any realistic takeover offer should've started at like $85/share. Cedar Fair has some insanely valuable assets.

 

[mwhinva]

Interesting read of the Fool's article. That writer felt SEAS was either not interested in a serious counter offer during negotiations; Or, this offer should have been made earlier, during 2020 or the first half of 2021. If the latter case, then SEAS came to the table too late and the USS Cedar Fair has left the port.

 

[mwhinva]

Just checked Cedar Fair unit price at the close of business today: $58.35

So just Knott's is open right now, with 2-3 parks coming online for the 2022 season in the next 3-4 weeks (including KD). The whole chain will be up and running over the next 2.5 months.

My thoughts on what is going in the heads of CF management right now: "If you want to make a deal, you damn well need to come with a serious offer; else, F' off!".

(Well, that is my fantasy thought of the day).

 

[super7]

Well managed or poorly managed, that is the question.

I don't see anything "poorly managed" at KD that stood out to me. Cedar Fair's directives was to have as much of the park chain operating; but, with limited operating hours/days to compensate for the labor market contraints and supply chain issues. And that was left up to each park based on those conditions in their region of the country.

SEAS wanted to maximize their park chain operating schedule. Leaving rides, attractions, restaurants, and shops closed or rotating open during operating hours as labor and supplies permit.

So the "We're Open" sign is hanging out front and people flood in expecting "normal" operations and not getting anything near that.

Neither of these operating philosophies are ideal. So, it is up to the park goers to face that this is the reality of this type of entertainment experience right now. You adapt or you choose to do something else.

Well managed or poorly managed, that is the question.

I don't see anything "poorly managed" at KD that stood out to me. Cedar Fair's directives was to have as much of the park chain operating; but, with limited operating hours/days to compensate for the labor market contraints and supply chain issues. And that was left up to each park based on those conditions in their region of the country.

SEAS wanted to maximize their park chain operating schedule. Leaving rides, attractions, restaurants, and shops closed or rotating open during operating hours as labor and supplies permit.

So the "We're Open" sign is hanging out front and people flood in expecting "normal" operations and not getting anything near that.

Neither of these operating philosophies are ideal. So, it is up to the park goers to face that this is the reality of this type of entertainment experience right now. You adapt or you choose to do something else.

Let me rephrase that. KD has been HIGHLY neglected for a while. It may be turning the corner with the JX upgrade. The added Carnivale snd Winterfest events there have been a plus. But it hasn’t gotten nearly what the other Taft parks have received from CF.

It’s a beautiful park with unlimited potential. Attendance should be much higher given its location to DC and on one of the busiest roads on the East Coast. But it has missing its potential.

As bad as BGW is managed, KD misses the mark in fully competing with BGW with the lack of entertainment venues and transport/all-family attractions.

 

[mwhinva]

Let me rephrase that. KD has been HIGHLY neglected for a while. It may be turning the corner with the JX upgrade. The added Carnivale snd Winterfest events there have been a plus. But it hasn’t gotten nearly what the other Taft parks have received from CF.

It’s a beautiful park with unlimited potential. Attendance should be much higher given its location to DC and on one of the busiest roads on the East Coast. But it has missing its potential.

As bad as BGW is managed, KD misses the mark in fully competing with BGW with the lack of entertainment venues and transport/all-family attractions.

What has KD not received that the other Taft parks have gotten from CF? You keep talking in generalities and, for me, I am not connecting the dots here.

 

[Jonesta6]

So apparently I305, TT, Delirium, Coconut Shores, and Tumbili don't really count for rides? All of the new focus on entertainment and hiring an actual chef to run culinary operations and provide decent alternatives to way overpriced carnival foods doesn't count? The CAG renovation? Or that in years of low capex the park didn't just sit on their hands but went to replace a lot of the blacktop with pavers to improve the aesthetics of the park?

It may be habit to knock the park for not having as cohesive a theme as BGW, and for certain generations also still have an image of it being an unsafe gang hangout (I still don't quite understand that one), but it is not neglected. Not even under Paramount, which is why there were several fan favorite prototype rides installed - KD was the only place to ride them.

 

[EdK]

So apparently I305, TT, Delirium, Coconut Shores, and Tumbili don't really count for rides? All of the new focus on entertainment and hiring an actual chef to run culinary operations and provide decent alternatives to way overpriced carnival foods doesn't count? The CAG renovation? Or that in years of low capex the park didn't just sit on their hands but went to replace a lot of the blacktop with pavers to improve the aesthetics of the park?

It may be habit to knock the park for not having as cohesive a theme as BGW, and for certain generations also still have an image of it being an unsafe gang hangout (I still don't quite understand that one), but it is not neglected. Not even under Paramount, which is why there were several fan favorite prototype rides installed - KD was the only place to ride them.

From my perspective I found KD in the 80's to be a really nice park on par with BGW and in some aspects better. When I went back in the early-mid 90's it didn't take long to realize it had taken a serious turn for the worse. I was there the weekend they had the stabbing in the park and in the following year KD installed metal detectors to stop kids from bringing weapons into the park. Going out to the parking lot at the end of the night you had to be aware of your surroundings. I completely agree with super7 that KD can be much more than it currently is given it's location. You can argue whether it was neglect or poor management that resulted in it's current state. There is no doubt that CF has definitely improved the park but they have also made some missteps.

 

[super7]

I said JX seems to turning direction.

But since 2010 , the only huge investment at KD has been Intimidator with the other parks receiving 2 or 3 huge investments. The theory that the failure of KD intimidator to bring large crowds seems to hold true.

Additionally the other 3 Taft parks have received both a B&M hyper AND Giga under Cedar Fair

Carowinds
Fury
Intimidator
Copperhead Strike (and the best theming of any CF ride)
Electro Spin
Rock and Rollet
Do Si Do
Zephyr
New County Fair
New Blue Ridge Jumction
New Entrance
New water slides
Camp Snoooy renovation
Harmony Hall
Wind seeker



Kings Island
Orion
New Area 72
Mystic Timbers
Banshee
International Street renovation
Planet Snoopy Rides
Antique Cars
Water park attractions
Coney Bar B Que
Wind seeker
Planet Snoopy renovation

Canadas Wonderland
Leviathan
Yukon Striker
Frontier Canada
Wonder Mt Guarduan
Flying Eagles
Skyhawk
Lumberjack
Flying Canoes
New major restaurant
Water park attractions
Planet Snoopy renovation
Planet Snioooy rides
Windseeker



KD
Intimidator
Twisted Timbers (lower cost than a new coaster)
Tumbili
Wind seeker
Delirium
Plsnet Snoopy renovation
Planet Snoopy rides
Jungle Expedition
Water Park attractions

 

[Jonesta6]

You forget that I305 was supposed to boost attendance by a lot and didn't as much, which may have been an indication to management at the time that they needed to rethink the strategy for increasing attendance away from expensive thrill rides.

At the same time, CF was left with removing the duds installed by Paramount. KD was the only park with the Hypersonic XLC and Volcano ride models in the chain, and only one of two for Shockwave's model. I'd imagine they didn't necessarily want to take any of those rides out if they didn't have to, but low ridership and high maintenance costs forced their hand - none of the respective manufacturers made those models anymore (and in the case of Shockwave the manufacturer no longer had a US sales team).

This is especially true in the case of Volcano - remember they were attempting to renovate the mountain structure and perhaps ride components and had already sunk some money into it before they abruptly reversed course and sent the ride to the scrappers. All of these things cost money that could have otherwise gone to new rides or experiences. Yet they still managed to keep adding things even if they weren't the large show-stoppers some may be expecting.

 

[mtpelepele]

Three, actually, for the TOGO standup. KD, KI, And Canada's Wonderland. KDs was the only unique one of them, the layout of the other two wouldn't fit in KD because of the dolphin theater.

 

[mwhinva]

I feel pretty confident that KD has not been "neglected" by Cedar Fair.

Over the last 10-12 years, CF has been been doing serious market analysis of each of their parks in the chain. They were up front stating they would spend max Cap Ex on those parks they felt had the greatest chance of boosting the overall attendance, income, and profit for the company long-term. That included Carowinds, Kings Island, Cedar Point, and Canada's Wonderland. I think they have gotten those parks pretty close to where they want them.

Now, over the last 4-5 years, CF has shifted back to spreading out the Cap Ex expenses among all parks. And I have seen that moola being used to right a lot of wrongs at KD. Are we there yet for KD? No, I see this fixing trend going on for the next 4-5 years; until CF finds a right balance for the park.

I don't think CF is neglecting KD just because the other top tier parks have one or two more major coasters than we do. Putting in coaster after coaster is not going to improve long term attendance and income when everything else in the park was either going downhill or simply not available. Sure, you might get a bump in attendance for a year or two after the major attraction opens.

The problem occurs 3-4 years later when park attendance stagnates or, worse, drops. All that expense for a major attraction and attendance is less than it was before all that Cap Ex was spent? That tells me major attractions are not the right fix, for now. CF has to right and balance the ship before loading it. That is why we are seeing strategic rides & attractions coming in to KD and they are not arriving with 20-30 million dollar price tags.

Meanwhile, CF is focused on improving the overall customer experience at KD. Improving/modernizing their food beverage facilities. Improving food quality and variety. Restoring theming details back into the park and enhancing landscaping. New and improved events in the Summer, Fall, and Winter. Entertainment has grown by leaps and bounds and there is still room for improvement there over the next few years.

I thought the park looked pretty good for 2021. Again, CF is not there yet and it could take another 4-5 years for the chain to get KD to their satisfaction. You need a strong patron base to build out and grow the park. When that happens, I think CF will want to spend more Cap Ex on headliner attractions going forward.