Project 2022: Pantheon

[Nicole]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

You can find a comprehensive discussion of everything we know here. We have characterized all of the data and analysis carefully, and as such, it is probably the best source.

We have also indexed all of the credible reporting here for easy reference.

 

[thopping]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

Soil testing was filed for both sides of the Rhine, so yes, both sides of the Rhine are confirmed.

This is slightly nit-picky so forgive me—I just want us to be as careful as possible in our wording so no one gets the wrong idea.
...
This is important because they could have simply been evaluating two different location options or one side's work could be solely for infrastructure. We just don't know yet.

No, not nit-picky at all.  Factual.

That Project Madrid will encompass both sides of the Rhine, is, as far as facts have shown thus far, a potential logical fallacy:

A: BGW is evaluating both sides of the Rhine for future projects.
B: If Project Madrid were to span the Rhine, both sides must be evaluated.
C: Therefore, since both sides are being evaluated, Project Madrid must span the Rhine.

You could make similar arguments that two hamlets are involved, or that it must be a coaster, since what other attraction would span the Rhine?

I personally feel these are all very plausible arguments, but again, not proven based on facts available.

Modus ponens

 

[Peej1212]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

Maybe depending on space it also may all be one hamlet connected by a bridge. Good thoughts and ideas though.

 

[Zimmy]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

If groundbreaking starts any later then July / August it probably won’t be a 2019 project. Since both sides of the Rhine are being used it’ll take some time to build whatever they’re doing.

If it is a coaster. If it crosses the water. If there is a project at all.

There is exactly 0 proof of any of these things that has been brought forward, just a whole bunch unfounded guesses.

At this point all we know is that there are some permits. Given recent financing issues, it would be a shock if any and all future capital improvements were shelved.

---

No, not nit-picky at all.  Factual.

That Project Madrid will encompass both sides of the Rhine, is, as far as facts have shown thus far, a potential logical fallacy:

A: BGW is evaluating both sides of the Rhine for future projects.
B: If Project Madrid were to span the Rhine, both sides must be evaluated.
C: Therefore, since both sides are being evaluated, Project Madrid must span the Rhine.

You could make similar arguments that two hamlets are involved, or that it must be a coaster, since what other attraction would span the Rhine?

I personally feel these are all very plausible arguments, but again, not proven based on facts available.

Modus ponens

But Post Hoc arguments are the best kind!!!

 

[Coaster Takes]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

If groundbreaking starts any later then July / August it probably won’t be a 2019 project. Since both sides of the Rhine are being used it’ll take some time to build whatever they’re doing.

If it is a coaster. If it crosses the water. If there is a project at all.

There is exactly 0 proof of any of these things that has been brought forward, just a whole bunch unfounded guesses.

At this point all we know is that there are some permits. Given recent financing issues, it would be a shock if any and all future capital improvements were shelved.

---

No, not nit-picky at all.  Factual.

That Project Madrid will encompass both sides of the Rhine, is, as far as facts have shown thus far, a potential logical fallacy:

A: BGW is evaluating both sides of the Rhine for future projects.
B: If Project Madrid were to span the Rhine, both sides must be evaluated.
C: Therefore, since both sides are being evaluated, Project Madrid must span the Rhine.

You could make similar arguments that two hamlets are involved, or that it must be a coaster, since what other attraction would span the Rhine?

I personally feel these are all very plausible arguments, but again, not proven based on facts available.

Modus ponens

But Post Hoc arguments are the best kind!!!

---

It’s under the rumors thread for a reason. Most of busch’s Projects, small or large usually start groundbreaking around the middle of the season before.

 

[warfelg]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

It’s not BGWs Project. Disney is preemptively expanding its gondola service to NoVa and it’s at 300’.

/s

Judging from what Zachary said I’m guessing the the finances either put the project on hold or they are reconfiguring to something less expensive. Crossing the river is a HUGE (or is it yuge?) expense. So they might want it for the benefits, but have to do something to cut costs because they can’t get financing.

And even through they did soil tests on both sides it doesn’t mean it will cross. Again like said it could be for the infrastructure. It could cross. Maybe it doesn’t and the park had it done because, hey the guys were there and the extra day didn’t cost as much as them coming again. There’s many reasons to test and not have to be building.

 

[thopping]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

</sarcasm>

 

[Thomas]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

 

[Coaster Takes]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

It’s been a long day.

 

[thopping]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

Judging from what Zachary said I’m guessing the the finances either put the project on hold or they are reconfiguring to something less expensive.
...

Yes, quite possible. One other thing I have wondered about for awhile is manufacturer availability.

IF, and granted these are if's, this is a coaster and prior speculation is correct and the two most logical companies are B&M, which you know I am very transparently pulling for, or Intamin... do either of those guys have build capacity as the Asian market explodes? Take a look at their list of coasters under construction--and it's only gotten worse since I originally thought of this last year:

B&M:
2018: 7 Asia (all but 1 China), 2 Europe
2019: 3 Asia (China)
2020: 1 Europe
Intamin:
2018: 8 Asia (5 China), 6 Europe, 1 South America, 1 Middle East
2019: 3 Asia (China)

Someone would have to do the math--and company capacity growth & prior economic conditions are factors of course--but these guys appear to put out around 6-8 or less coasters a year. 2017: B&M (3, including retrofits), Intamin (6). China alone meets or exceeds their historical averages in 2018. Will that continue?

Maybe BGW is wise to remember the lesson of Drachen Fire and is waiting to get penciled in with one of these two?

Source: Wikipedia's list pulled from RCDB's new for "x" year database - https://rcdb.com
Note: Wiki's data is a little stale, but easier to view by man'f--things may have changed, YMMV--but it's a decent estimate

 

[warfelg]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

Judging from what Zachary said I’m guessing the the finances either put the project on hold or they are reconfiguring to something less expensive.
...

Yes, quite possible.  One other thing I have wondered about for awhile is manufacturer availability.

IF, and granted these are if's, this is a coaster and prior speculation is correct and the two most logical companies are B&M, which you know I am very transparently pulling for, or Intamin...  do either of those guys have build capacity as the Asian market explodes?   Take a look at their list of coasters under construction--and it's only gotten worse since I originally thought of this last year:

B&M:
2018: 7 Asia (all but 1 China), 2 Europe
2019: 3 Asia (China)
2020: 1 Europe
Intamin:
2018: 8 Asia (5 China), 6 Europe, 1 South America, 1 Middle East
2019: 3 Asia (China)

Someone would have to do the math--and company capacity growth & prior economic conditions are factors of course--but these guys appear to put out around 6-8 or less coasters a year. 2017: B&M (3, including retrofits), Intamin (6).  China alone meets or exceeds their historical averages in 2018.  Will that continue?

Maybe BGW is wise to remember the lesson of Drachen Fire and is waiting to get penciled in with one of these two?

Source: Wikipedia's list pulled from RCDB's new for "x" year database - https://rcdb.com
Note: Wiki's data is a little stale, but easier to view by man'f--things may have changed, YMMV--but it's a decent estimate

Good call. I wonder if some of them have 'outsourced' some of the work or have a production plant in Asia. Would be smart at this rate with the asian market being over the ripoffs.

 

[Unagi]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

Good call.  I wonder if some of them have 'outsourced' some of the work or have a production plant in Asia.  Would be smart at this rate with the asian market being over the ripoffs.

I'm not sure about Intamin but all of B&M's track is manufactured at Clermont Steel Fabricators in Batavia, Ohio, while the trains and other parts are manufactured in Switzerland. Their Ohio plant can handle the capacity of whatever projects B&M needs done as they also manufacture other steel products for other industries.

B&M opened nine roller coasters in 1999. If they can easily do that then it wouldn't be an issue to do more nowadays.

 

[CoasterAuditor]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

China needs to chill with all this B&M demand. I'd like some more in North America thank you very much. /s

 

[Shane]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

I'm not sure about Intamin but all of B&M's track is manufactured at Clermont Steel Fabricators in Batavia, Ohio, while the trains and other parts are manufactured in Switzerland.  Their Ohio plant can handle the capacity of whatever projects B&M needs done as they also manufacture other steel products for other industries.

B&M opened nine roller coasters in 1999.  If they can easily do that then it wouldn't be an issue to do more nowadays.

I was pretty sure that Clermont Steel (AKA the B&M Factory) manufactured all of B&M project's track worldwide (not just their US track) but I didn't want to presume without being sure. I didn't think capacity was a problem for Clermont either. There are photos online of Clermont actually fabricating coaster track for other manufacturers as well, but I am not sure who's track it is I can just tell it's not B&M track.

While on that subject I'm kinda curious about Giovanola's old facilities and where they had their track (and their subcontracted Intamin projects track) manufactured. I had read something years ago that said that B&M and Intamin split Giovanola's assets when they were liquidated back in 2004 but I'm sure I'll never find that source again.

China needs to chill with all this B&M demand.  I'd like some more in North America thank you very much. /s

I think we will continue to see low demand for B&M in the US for a couple of reasons. First, they are pretty saturated in the US already, most major theme parks in the US already have at least one if not multiple B&M products in their parks. The several of large parks have already have virtually one of almost every model in their catalog. Their catalog has not changed much in several years; Other than the Family Inverted Coaster in 2014, they have not added a new product to their catalog since 2011.

Next, they're ride systems are quite large requiring a lot more footprint than most of their competitors. If you put a 100 ft tall B&M lift next to a 100 ft tall MACK, Gerstlauer, or Vekoma, the B&M is going to take up more ground space than the others due to the way B&M designs their track. They require a relatively large amount of pre-lift and post-lift feeder track compared to other manufacturers. The new Hangtime coaster at Knott's Berry Farm is a great example. You can tell based on the marketing and some of the design choices for this ride that Cedar Fair wanted a B&M Dive Machine, but if you look at the space where Hangtime is going up, there is no way that B&M could have fit their Dive Machine there without sacrificing the majority of the layout to the lift, post-lift drive section, and hold break.

Lastly is cost, B&M's cost significantly more than the other manufacturers, US parks are looking to maximize their return on investment more so now than they have in the past. You see the vast majority of additions to SixFlags parks in resent years are clones of some of the least expensive coaster products on the market. Other firms are branching out of their original core product portfolios and proving that they can build coasters at a fraction of B&M's price tag.

The Chinese Theme Park industry is basically the US Theme Park industry in the 1970's and 80's. Flush with cash, growth, and open land. New, large scale parks are being built every year from scratch in China, something that isn't happening in the US and the Chinese are flush with cash they can throw at B&M for what they think the Western world considers "the best coasters money can buy."

So all of these reasons plus probably a few more are probably why we aren't going to see huge growth for B&M in the US. Sure we may see one or two more new projects every 2-4 years from them, but I think until they really put out a new revolutionary product or start offering more economical options, the age of B&M in the US is pretty much over.

 

[warfelg]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

And if that's the case, Fury is a great swan song for their era of US dominance.

Personally I think that you hit something with the cost. Parks are looking at things like the S&S freeswing, S&S family suspended, Vekoma Suspended, Mack offerings, are things that have high ridership and low downtime (not that B&M's are bad with that). I think parks are realizing after the Giga craze that family coasters is something that can be a big boom for them.

 

[Unagi]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

And if that's the case, Fury is a great swan song for their era of US dominance.  

Can't disclose any details but B&M is far from being done with installations in North America.

Personally I think that you hit something with the cost.  Parks are looking at things like the S&S freeswing, S&S family suspended, Vekoma Suspended, Mack offerings, are things that have high ridership and low downtime (not that B&M's are bad with that).  

Mack ain't cheap.  Helix at Liseberg cost just as much as Fury 325 yet it is much shorter in track length by over 2000 feet and definitely not as tall (135-ft max height).  Manta at SeaWorld San Diego hits a price tag of about $10 million.  That's a pretty penny for a family coaster considering it has a max height of 30-feet.

I think parks are realizing after the Giga craze that family coasters is something that can be a big boom for them.

I wouldn't say a giga craze existed.  You had only one company (Cedar Fair) install three of them within a six year span.  I wouldn't call that a craze since they're the only park chain in North America to have them.  Had they been installed by Six Flags, SEAS and other park companies then maybe you would call it a craze.  And with 4 total all located by one company in the eastern time zone of the continent, there doesn't seem to be much of a craze until we see more parks buy them and see them scattered throughout the country.

Lastly, while family coasters and rides are great additions to parks, it will always be the big thrilling attractions that companies rely on to get a significant boost in attendance numbers.  Family attractions don't have that kind of pull.

 

[warfelg]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

Can't disclose any details but B&M is far from being done with installations in North America.

Obviously. I didn't expect them to no longer do anything. But is Fury is their biggest thing, and they don't update their cataloge all that much, it makes it a 'swan song' so to speak.

Mack ain't cheap.  Helix at Liseberg cost just as much as Fury 325 yet it is much shorter in track length by over 2000 feet and definitely not as tall (135-ft max height).  Manta at SeaWorld San Diego hits a price tag of about $10 million.  That's a pretty penny for a family coaster considering it has a max height of 30-feet.

And Manta in Orlando cost between $35 and 50 million by all projections. Take a look at what Cheetah hunt cost because it's more similar (multi launch) compared to Helix than Fury.

I wouldn't say a giga craze existed.  You had only one company (Cedar Fair) install three of them within a six year span.  I wouldn't call that a craze since they're the only park chain in North America to have them.  Had they been installed by Six Flags, SEAS and other park companies then maybe you would call it a craze.  And with 4 total all located by one company in the eastern time zone of the continent, there doesn't seem to be much of a craze until we see more parks buy them and see them scattered throughout the country.

Lastly, while family coasters and rides are great additions to parks, it will always be the big thrilling attractions that companies rely on to get a significant boost in attendance numbers.  Family attractions don't have that kind of pull.

It's still a bit of a craze when every rumor that pops up for a park get's the "Is it a Giga" question.

I disagree on your last statement TBH. Family coasters can have a big impact. In fact all coasters can have a big impact. Lake Compounce in Bristol CT added Boulderdash, a family coaster, and it lead to huge things for them. They added Phobia this year (aka Tempesto) and it didn't move the needle at all. Phobia is bigger and more thrilling for sure.

 

[warfelg]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

And when I say "swan song" I mean that's going to be (IMO) the greatest coaster they build in America.

 

[Unagi]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

And Manta in Orlando cost between $35 and 50 million by all projections.  Take a look at what Cheetah hunt cost because it's more similar (multi launch) compared to Helix than Fury.

Manta, the coaster itself, did not cost that much.  When SeaWorld built that they redid that entire section of the park and added an 185,000 gallon ray aquarium and a new themed area with new pathways, foliage and waterfalls.

I disagree on your last statement TBH.  Family coasters can have a big impact.  In fact all coasters can have a big impact.  Lake Compounce in Bristol CT added Boulderdash, a family coaster, and it lead to huge things for them.  They added Phobia this year (aka Tempesto) and it didn't move the needle at all.  Phobia is bigger and more thrilling for sure.

I was speaking in terms of major park chains like Cedar Fair, SEAS and Six Flags.  Not a small and isolated regional park like Lake Compounce.

 

[warfelg]

RE: Project Madrid: New Hamlet? Giga Coaster? 315' Tower?

I just disagree that it has to be big and thrilling to have an impact. I’m sure BGW felt quite the positive impact from Invadr this year and it’s a smaller family friendly coaster.

Basically I don’t think you can flat out say bigger and more thrilling always means it’s better for the park. Lots of parks lately have lacked in the family ride area for bigger and more thrilling. It’s my prediction that we'll see a slight walk back to family friendly coasters as parks look to fill it.

Now how this applies to BGW is they have a good collection of family coasters with Invadr, the one in Seasme Street (I never go in there no kids), Verbolten, and you could even include Nessie here. Griffin, Apollo, and Alpie fit the bigger and thrilling. So BGW can fit in that.

But look up the road:
KD family friend is Woodstock, Racer, Grizzly, Avalanche, Backlot. Thrilling is Twisted Timbers, I305, Dominator, Anaconda, FoF, Volcano. Wouldn’t a nice S&S family invert be great for them? (I’ve covered elsewhere how I’m not a fan of at least 2 of those coasters).

Basically the bigger more thrilling thing IMO needs a bit of a backseat. There needs to be some time on rounding out collections. Parks need to round themselves out if they want some families to keep coming back and families spend more than almost anyone else.