It’s been explained multiple times throughout this threat. Unfortunately I think you just don’t want to understand it.
Project 2022: Pantheon
- Thread starter Shane
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No I don't think it has, what has been explained is that SEAS is in control.
I'm asking directly how can SEAS have a maximum ROI if the investment is already late. Aren't they losing money on said investment daily? Considering the ride is paid for and not operating?
Also what precidence do we have to compare this to? Were there other coaster that sat for 2 years and had maximum ROI? If not seems like uncharted territory.
Waiting for the proper market/staffing conditions is not a bad business decision. Don’t @ me
Well, whether they get maximum ROI by opening it now or a year from now depends on how big the attendance spike is the first year it is open is. Every year it is sbno it is a depreciating asset with maintenance cost and it’s lifetime is ticking down, limiting the amount of time the ride has to make its ROI.
However, if seas expects that the ride will single handedly sell a lot more season passes and tickets in year one of reopening then maybe if makes sense to open it once everything is open.
HOWEVER right now everything is open and there is huge demand for stuff to do after a year of being locked away. If they did a huge marketing push now I think this would be the best year as far as gaining new customers because people want to go to places now. We are in an economic bubble. Next year economical might not look so good, depending on what happens with inflation.
in short, id want to do my marketing push when the market is hot, and that is now.
Not to mention that there certainly already is a “pantheon effect” to their ticket sells. I’m sure that at least a certain ammount of people renewed or got tickets this year with the expectations that pantheon would be open. I’m not saying seas owes it to them, I’m saying that that makes the one year spike I was talking about earlier that much smaller....
I think the reason pantheon isn’t open isn’t because seas thinks it will get a larger ROI if they wait, I think it’s because the park is already operating at capacity because of all the staffing issues associated with the combination of a less mobile workforce (Eg no foreign workers), unemployment benefit extensions, and increased job competition due to increased consumer demand.
However, if seas expects that the ride will single handedly sell a lot more season passes and tickets in year one of reopening then maybe if makes sense to open it once everything is open.
HOWEVER right now everything is open and there is huge demand for stuff to do after a year of being locked away. If they did a huge marketing push now I think this would be the best year as far as gaining new customers because people want to go to places now. We are in an economic bubble. Next year economical might not look so good, depending on what happens with inflation.
in short, id want to do my marketing push when the market is hot, and that is now.
Not to mention that there certainly already is a “pantheon effect” to their ticket sells. I’m sure that at least a certain ammount of people renewed or got tickets this year with the expectations that pantheon would be open. I’m not saying seas owes it to them, I’m saying that that makes the one year spike I was talking about earlier that much smaller....
I think the reason pantheon isn’t open isn’t because seas thinks it will get a larger ROI if they wait, I think it’s because the park is already operating at capacity because of all the staffing issues associated with the combination of a less mobile workforce (Eg no foreign workers), unemployment benefit extensions, and increased job competition due to increased consumer demand.
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Sigh....
ROI isn’t an instantaneous thing. It’s not about how close to being completed it opens or how long it’s unused.
For many companies ROI isn’t even about making money to pay for something. It’s about maximizing profits off of a new item.
If BGW is operating daily at max or near max of what they can do, opening Pantheon isn’t a good return on investment because there is very little extra profit coming in from the new item.
If BGW waits until there is less than max capacity to use Pantheon to bring it back to max capacity then it’s a great ROI regardless of how long it’s SBNO.
Let me explain a different way:
BGW is at 95% capacity each day and netting a $55 mil profit off those days. They open Pantheon in these conditions to hit 100% capacity and get $58mil on profits.
ROI = $3million. That’s terrible for something like this.
BGW sees a trend where they stay at 70% capacity each day and are netting a $34 mil profit off of those days. So they open Pantheon, hit 100% and get $58 mil in profits.
ROI = $24 million. That’s a fantastic return on investment.
So BGW is very smart to wait for an opportunity where their daily profits and capacity drops low enough that Pantheon opening means more people they can’t get in now can get in and spend money.
ROI isn’t an instantaneous thing. It’s not about how close to being completed it opens or how long it’s unused.
For many companies ROI isn’t even about making money to pay for something. It’s about maximizing profits off of a new item.
If BGW is operating daily at max or near max of what they can do, opening Pantheon isn’t a good return on investment because there is very little extra profit coming in from the new item.
If BGW waits until there is less than max capacity to use Pantheon to bring it back to max capacity then it’s a great ROI regardless of how long it’s SBNO.
Let me explain a different way:
BGW is at 95% capacity each day and netting a $55 mil profit off those days. They open Pantheon in these conditions to hit 100% capacity and get $58mil on profits.
ROI = $3million. That’s terrible for something like this.
BGW sees a trend where they stay at 70% capacity each day and are netting a $34 mil profit off of those days. So they open Pantheon, hit 100% and get $58 mil in profits.
ROI = $24 million. That’s a fantastic return on investment.
So BGW is very smart to wait for an opportunity where their daily profits and capacity drops low enough that Pantheon opening means more people they can’t get in now can get in and spend money.
See, I agree with both sentiments, I want it open because of course we all do, but I do recognize that it’s not going to happen if the park is always full. While I’m annoyed that I got a pass this year, you can bet that I’m gonna be buying one next year, even though I feel ripped off, because if I don’t I’m still not riding it. It’s a lose lose for me and only a win for SEAS. I just want transparency, like you know, every other chain on earth.
The truth isn't always what people want to hear. I and almost everyone else in this thread find the biggest issue with it being SBNO is SEAS deafening silence on the status when now that they seem to be toning down/dropping the "Anticipated Opening 2021" marketing. I can guarantee you if they came out tomorrow and dropped a press release that said " Due to unforseen staffing and market conditions we have made the decision to delay Pantheon's opening until Spring of 2022" people would grumble and bitch for a bit but then it would die down because there is some semblance of closure.
Boiled down to its absolute most simple form, SEAS' strategy is essentially:
This year SEAS can still get away with balance sheets that look a little disappointing. Everyone's will. Next year though—a year with (fingers crossed) no COVID restrictions? By then SEAS has to be firing on all cylinders to prove to investors that they actually do have this company on track again. That requires new for 2022 attraction debuts.
The second half of the strategy involves a lot of timing. BGW experiences the highest level of natural demand in the Summer. In the Fall and Winter the park has incredibly popular special events. What does the park have to drive attendance and in-park revenues in the Spring? A big new attraction debut is supposed to be the answer to that.
In other words, not having a 2022 attraction would be a big knock to the attendance and in-park spending side of that framework as well.
- New, yearly attraction debuts at each park to drive pass sales and renewals
- Special events throughout the year to drive attendance and in-park spending
This year SEAS can still get away with balance sheets that look a little disappointing. Everyone's will. Next year though—a year with (fingers crossed) no COVID restrictions? By then SEAS has to be firing on all cylinders to prove to investors that they actually do have this company on track again. That requires new for 2022 attraction debuts.
The second half of the strategy involves a lot of timing. BGW experiences the highest level of natural demand in the Summer. In the Fall and Winter the park has incredibly popular special events. What does the park have to drive attendance and in-park revenues in the Spring? A big new attraction debut is supposed to be the answer to that.
In other words, not having a 2022 attraction would be a big knock to the attendance and in-park spending side of that framework as well.
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I get the feeling that they don’t want to announce it’s delay until after busy season so that there isn’t any black spot on their packed summer margins.
I think the maybe most obvious one is being missed:
Outside of a small sector of enthusiasts, they aren’t getting a ton of blowback on Pantheon SBNO to the level they don’t feel the need to say anything.
I saw that Seaworld Orlando is planning a HOS event for the first time. They apparently believe they will be able to staff it, and will need to draw in more people by then. Relates to this as well as haunt discussions.
Re: "blowback" is more likely right now if they seem too careless of Covid timing or open a ride without being prepared. Maybe look for the trams to resume first at least. But maybe expectations of what is a "year" is changed enough to allow opening at a different time than usual.
Re: "blowback" is more likely right now if they seem too careless of Covid timing or open a ride without being prepared. Maybe look for the trams to resume first at least. But maybe expectations of what is a "year" is changed enough to allow opening at a different time than usual.
I am glad you brought this up. Seaworld Orlando lacking a major October event and dead period as we are discussing attendance and numbers. They could have opted to open ice breaker instead to increase attendance. Instead, they have announced a new event. So I think this plays into the 2022 thinking as well here.
I know I am going to regret this, but...
I don't think anyone has claimed SEAS is in control. People have speculated about how SEAS is likely assessing the market and the best way to hedge their bets.
Questioning the ROI logic is completely reasonable; misquoting people is not.
I an no expert but I would assume that by not cycling the ride there is less wear and tear and the ride will need less maintenance in that state and possibly have a longer life span canceling out the years SNO giving it more time to make its ROI.
I laughed at that. The number of people who think they know way more than they actually do about the ins and outs of running a corporation, let alone theme park is staggering.
If SEAS only sold daily tickets they'd be more inclined to open now or soon, but SEAS business model and primary attendance is driven by memberships.
So basically we’re saying SEAS is smart because they don’t care about their members because they already have them in the bag.
It’s hard for me to defend SEAS when they seemingly don’t care to provide the same type of service, entertainment, and content that all other subscription based businesses do.
It baffles me how much some of you think you know about the inner business workings of a high profile theme park chain. The people who have been around the park and observing its operations for years I'll trust to an extent. But even then we're all in the dark for the most part. So idk why so many of you are so CERTAIN about your viewpoint of SEAS' methods or ideologies. Give it a rest.
Like I said, if you've been doing this for years, I'd agree you have the experience to speak on this with some level of certainty, but come on. I know I kinda just come on here once a week and complain but it's always the same tired conversation every time I check in.
Like I said, if you've been doing this for years, I'd agree you have the experience to speak on this with some level of certainty, but come on. I know I kinda just come on here once a week and complain but it's always the same tired conversation every time I check in.
Sea opened BGW in July last year. They kept it open for almost an entire year at this point. They also operated semi normal Halloween, and Christmas events.. Let's compare that to CF they opened what 2 parks in July lastyear??? They announced that they were cutting back on their operating days and basically canceled any attempt at a Halloween event. Then ran a 2 week Christmas event at what 4 Parks and the closed all their parks till Memorial Day week. Yeah I will take having the park open over having it shuttered while the company opens 1 new coaster at one park. Also it would appear to me that Sea cared MORE about providing services and entertainment then one of their closest competitors.
Painted metal rusts a lot slower
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