Project 2021/Drachen Spire: Intamin Multi-Launch Shuttle Giga Coaster [Cancelled]

b.mac · May 16, 2019

warfelg said:
Which makes sense. $35 million on 1 ride, when you can get 2 rides at $40mil (fake figures) that would include a few extra things along with it, go to two areas they can add attractions, food service, merchandise, and games. Maybe BGW doesn't see a massive spike, but if they can get 4-6 years of steady increases because of 2 big attractions and the filling out of the areas; that's worth it alone.

The issue with this investment strategy is that building major rides back-to-back like this has stunted attendance and growth from previous additions. Instead of a healthy progress of growth from the occasional major addition ala what parks like Holiday World, Carowinds, and Hersheypark have done, this sort of expansion plan has shown to stunt the growth of an amusement park (especially an established one) for multiple years after such projects have been added.

Nicole · May 16, 2019

Is there data that demonstrates a causal link between back-to-back addition as and stunted growth? Do we know it wasn’t merely a correlational relationship or random chance?

warfelg · May 16, 2019

b.mac said:
The issue with this investment strategy is that building major rides back-to-back like this has stunted attendance and growth from previous additions. Instead of a healthy progress of growth from the occasional major addition ala what parks like Holiday World, Carowinds, and Hersheypark have done, this sort of expansion plan has shown to stunt the growth of an amusement park (especially an established one) for multiple years after such projects have been added.

Huh? Hersheypark is one of the largest growing parks and adds something major every other year with multiple other additions in between. Just because you don't see half a million guest jumps doesn't mean it's not working. That data needs to be much deeper for me to be convinced it's not working. Whats the income changes? Membership sales changes? Return ticket sales?

b.mac · May 16, 2019

warfelg said:
Huh? Hersheypark is one of the largest growing parks and adds something major every other year with multiple other additions in between. Just because you don't see half a million guest jumps doesn't mean it's not working. That data needs to be much deeper for me to be convinced it's not working. Whats the income changes? Membership sales changes? Return ticket sales?

Hershey is on a different investment strategy waiting multiple years between major additions, compared to the expansion strategies I have referenced ala GAdv 2005-2006, Cedar Point 2016-2018, and BGW 1997-1999.

DJTLG · May 16, 2019

@BGWnut I did consider your point. The size it appears may depend on which direction you are looking from. However, that part of the discussion was more about the overall differences between the previously approved 315ft attraction and the proposed 355ft one. The supervisor who asked the question seemed to be trying to point out that if the first was approved but not built then what is so different about the second that would cause so much more objection.

I could be totally off, but in my estimation that comment was referring to the overall attractions rather than just the view from Kingsmill.

b.mac · May 16, 2019

Nicole said:
Is there data that demonstrates a causal link between back-to-back addition as and stunted growth? Do we know it wasn’t merely a correlational relationship or random chance?

Sure. According to AB/ERA (The predecessor to TEA/AECOM circa 2006) Busch Gardens Williamsburg saw an estimated 200,000 attendance decrease from 1997 to 1998, and no notable increase for the 1999 or 2000 seasons. Only in 2001 was there a marked increase in attendance, which was then mitigated in 2002 post 9/11 and did not increase again until Darkastle was added in 2005.

Also according to AB/ERA and TEA/AECOM, in 2005 and 2006 Great Adventure saw an 8% decrease in annual attendance following the addition of Kingda Ka with El Toro. And even despite the company bankruptcy restructuring, attendance stayed stagnant until 2015 when Holiday in the Park was announced.

DJTLG · May 16, 2019

Wasn't project 2020 originally slated for 2019? Assuming that is true, the original plan would not have been for back to back additions. That seems not to be a deciding factor.

Zachary · May 16, 2019

b.mac said:
Sure. According to AB/ERA (The predecessor to TEA/AECOM circa 2006) Busch Gardens Williamsburg saw an estimated 200,000 attendance decrease from 1997 to 1998, and no notable increase for the 1999 or 2000 seasons.

One could argue that Apollo's debut was harmed by the Fabio incident and that despite that, Apollo's addition still prevented anticipated losses as the appeal of Alpie waned. It's my understanding that the gains Alpie ushered in were enormous. One would expect a steep fall-off in the years to follow, no?

b.mac · May 16, 2019

Zachary said:
One could argue that Apollo's debut was harmed by the Fabio incident and that despite that, Apollo's addition still prevented anticipated losses as the appeal of Alpie waned. It's my understanding that the gains Alpie ushered in were enormous. One would expect a steep fall-off in the years to follow, no?

According to AB/ERA the difference between 1995 and 1997 (1996 not listed for unknown reasons), the estimated increase was only about 125,000. The Fabio incident had no noticeable affect on the success of Apollo as an addition, compared to the affects of the changes in loose article policies for Steel Vengeance and Twisted Timbers. Outside of the minor fluctuations in annual attendance, BGW's annual attendance estimates remained relatively stagnant overall from 1998 to 2005, where 2006 was not listed because BGW was not in the top 20 of TEA's Estimated North American attendance.

GrandpaD · May 16, 2019

In all the discussion of whether major new additions have an impact on the gate, there's another factor that adds into the equation - the average expenditure of guests in-park. If you have a good variety of rides and other attractions, people are prone to stay longer and, subsequently, spend more money on food, etc. Adding a major ride might initially impact the gate, but adding the right attraction to your current mix to keep people in the park is a major goal.

warfelg · May 16, 2019

@b.mac

An honest, and IMO fair, criticism of such a focus on attendance figures, they don't always show the true growth. Like if a ride can be attributed to only 10,000 more guests, but park revenue jumped $2million, there's no way you can't call a ride a success. Those things also have little way of accounting for weather, general tourist industry trends, local tourist industry trends. To me looking at the financial impact of the improvement along with the percentage of increases (over raw numbers) paints a better picture.

My point in hand. 2018 saw an average of -2.9% attendance to water parks from the previous year. That alone looks bad. Water parks are down. Water Country USA was right on those industry numbers (-3.0%). But when diving into our Williamsburg weather for 2018, we had 1.8% more days of rain and 2.5% more days of below average temps. So to me that WCUSA number ends up being a red herring number.

I think you could end up doing the same with KD with TT being new, Volcano being down, and weather. To stay even in attendance with that isn't a bad thing. That's actually a good thing to lose an attraction, have less operating days, and not lose people out the door.

GrandpaD · May 16, 2019

Just throwing this back out there - back in the AB days they'd announce annual attendance. The season BBW opened (1984), they realized only a 9,400 gate increase.

And, in looking at attendance figures and whether "Super Grande Gargantuan coaster" made an impact, you also have to look at the economy as well. Big factory closed, recession, tariff increases, etc. all can impact the entertainment dollar.

Jahrules · May 16, 2019

I think one angle that hasn't been discussed is that if a park were to do absolutely nothing new on a year, attendance would surely go down by some percentage. So no matter what; some money needs to be spent. Saying that a park built a ride and attendance only grew by 1% is not a complete picture in that light.

It's unrealistic to expect massive attendance growth from new attractions unless it's associated with a major IP (i.e. star wars)

b.mac · May 16, 2019

Jahrules said:
I think one angle that hasn't been discussed is that if a park were to do absolutely nothing new on a year, attendance would surely go down by some percentage. So no matter what; some money needs to be spent. Saying that a park built a ride and attendance only grew by 1% is not a complete picture in that light.

Which is why @GrandpaD and other users (myself included) have suggested more for a flat package addition instead of another major coaster. As it's a smaller addition to motivate more customers to try to come back year to year. The industry as a whole has shifted towards this sort of expansion strategy, making smaller singular investments every year to slowly build a consistent visitor base, and every 5 or so years (park dependent) in that plan adding a major new addition to attract newer customers and renew the process over again.

Jahrules · May 16, 2019

b.mac said:
Which is why @GrandpaD and other users (myself included) have suggested more for a flat package addition instead of another major coaster. As it's a smaller addition to motivate more customers to try to come back year to year. The industry as a whole has shifted towards this sort of expansion strategy, making smaller singular investments every year to slowly build a consistent visitor base, and every 5 or so years (park dependent) in that plan adding a major new addition to attract newer customers and renew the process over again.

Totally on board with this with the exception that I feel bgw is running out of room in the existing park boundaries to accomplish this. Because of this, I am more in the camp of 2021 being a coaster which will become the anchor for a major land expansion (read hamlet) next to festhaus. Under my theory, 2022 and beyond would involve adding flats to that new space.

jonfin826 · May 16, 2019

GrandpaD said:
Just throwing this back out there - back in the AB days they'd announce annual attendance. The season BBW opened (1984), they realized only a 9,400 gate increase.

And, in looking at attendance figures and whether "Super Grande Gargantuan coaster" made an impact, you also have to look at the economy as well. Big factory closed, recession, tariff increases, etc. all can impact the entertainment dollar.

This. There are MANY variables that can have an impact on attendance figures.

Nicole · May 16, 2019

I’m seeing a lot of correlations data, but no evidence demonstrating causation. Timeline analysis can show us when events converge, but does not highlight the reasons why things happen at the same time.

basseyfish · May 16, 2019

This is just a thought.. if they are adding 2 big things right next to each other basically, couldnt they connect these somehow? Maybe another bridge or something?

Jahrules · May 16, 2019

basseyfish said:
This is just a thought.. if they are adding 2 big things right next to each other basically, couldnt they connect these somehow? Maybe another bridge or something?

That would be a very logical step which would avoid having two "dead end" areas.

Ghost of Pretzel Kaiser · May 16, 2019

I don't think we've been able to rule out a polercoaster.

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