COVID-19’s Impacts on BGW

[Memles]

Unless COVID spikes again, as experts are predicting, and those other locations turn into hotspots.

Yeah, we have four major tipping points—kids returning to in-person schools in some jurisdictions, Thanksgiving, Christmas, colleges returning back to campus in January—between us and an attempt at a March reopening. This means that there’s really no point in trying to litigate what legal arguments the parks might make in March when the landscape could be entirely different by then.

To be clear, I think the parks would sue to raise capacity by then, with BGW’s track record as their evidence to support additional capacity. I think whatever happens in California—they announced today they’re sending representatives to parks around the country to see how safety policies are being implemented, and planning to create more granular rules for different types of amusement facilities—might be something that we see used as a model of sorts by the local parks in their lobbying efforts.

 

[WDWRLD]

Look, if it hasnt spiked at theme parks yet im not sure it will. This was Islands of Adventure Saturday. At Disney on Sunday the line for Peter pan went to Liberty Square and back and Mansion started at Mansion, went to the edge of Frontierland and back using all the riverboad queue and the old Fink Boat area. The park needs to start putting pressure on JCC so they will put pressure on the state. Disney is in the same situation in California.

 

[Jonesta6]

Back to with contact tracing being abysmal at best and that nobody knows all of the underlying medical conditions that the people in such crowds have that makes them more susceptible, it's truly unknown if there's been a spread from any given source including stores, outdoor entertainment spaces, and actual amusement/theme parks.

FWIW it's conceivable that these kinds of places are mostly safe from the pandemic, but at this point it's probably better to err on the side of caution vs extremely debilitating illness or death for those that think they're invincible and wouldn't adhere to any non-mandated guidance anyways - catching it or sharing it.

 

[horsesboy]

Another key issue that I have heard several lawyers raises is how long an emergency order can be in effect. The law doesn't set a time table but does reference several times temporary measures. Given that we are nw six months into the emergency and have had a special session of the general assembly which could have addressed Covid measures but chose not to do so the legal argument can be made that the emergency measures exceed the legal limits. Whether a court would agree with the argument is another question all together.

 

[Memles]

Another key issue that I have heard several lawyers raises is how long an emergency order can be in effect. The law doesn't set a time table but does reference several times temporary measures. Given that we are nw six months into the emergency and have had a special session of the general assembly which could have addressed Covid measures but chose not to do so the legal argument can be made that the emergency measures exceed the legal limits. Whether a court would agree with the argument is another question all together.

There is a huge difference between a legal argument based on a belief that they have proven they can operate safely and are being unfairly punished by a specific restriction (which I would argue is true) and making a legal argument that challenges the legitimacy of ALL COVID-related restrictions, which no major theme park chain would want to be party to.

 

[WDWRLD]

FWIW it's conceivable that these kinds of places are mostly safe from the pandemic, but at this point it's probably better to err on the side of caution vs extremely debilitating illness or death for those that think they're invincible and wouldn't adhere to any non-mandated guidance anyways - catching it or sharing it.

While I do agree that it can affect some people very badly that have pre existing conditions and probably some who have undiagnosed pre existing conditions the real question I have is how long are people going to as you say "err on the side of caution"? I mean at some point you have to live your life. Heck, chances of dying in a car crash are something like 1 in a 100......so for most age groups thats a greater risk but no one bats a eye about running out and hopping in the car.

 

[Memles]

While I do agree that it can affect some people very badly that have pre existing conditions and probably some who have undiagnosed pre existing conditions the real question I have is how long are people going to as you say "err on the side of caution"? I mean at some point you have to live your life. Heck, chances of dying in a car crash are something like 1 in a 100......so for most age groups thats a greater risk but no one bats a eye about running out and hopping in the car.

Look, I realize that you are in a business that depends on the travel and amusement industries, and thus have a vested interest in the return to normalcy, but the reality is that the point at which we stop erring on the side of caution is when there is mass distribution of a vaccine. And in truth, we do not know whether or not the park could even be drawing 30% capacity at this time, or whether it would be a situation like with movie theaters where there simply isn’t enough people willing to take the risks associated with gathering in public.

You should realize by now that there is not an audience on this forum for mass removal of restrictions and misguided claims comparing death rates of illnesses or accidents that are NOT airborne viruses they spread rapidly. It’s one thing to make an argument that the park should be allowed to increase capacity (I would even make that argument, and I’m vehemently against expanding reopenings broadly), but we are long past the point where mass-scale reopening is a viable concept given all available evidence from the states that rushed to do so earlier than recommended.

 

[Jonesta6]

While I do agree that it can affect some people very badly that have pre existing conditions and probably some who have undiagnosed pre existing conditions the real question I have is how long are people going to as you say "err on the side of caution"? I mean at some point you have to live your life. Heck, chances of dying in a car crash are something like 1 in a 100......so for most age groups thats a greater risk but no one bats a eye about running out and hopping in the car.

I apologize if this needs to be moved to a more appropriate thread.

Maybe think of it differently - cancer, AIDS, HIV, heart disease - these are all things that kill indiscriminately. In some cases, they're treatable, manageable, more of a nuisance than anything. But in most, debilitation and/or death is the more likely outcome.

COVID-19 is generally in this boat - my guess is it's more closer to cancer in how it's seemingly random in whom it affects, how severe its effects can be between different people, various activities/behaviors can possibly increase the risk of being affected, and how throwing money at research doesn't necessarily equate to curing it. One of the major differences is that it's known to be caused by a virus that's theoretically able to be eradicated.

Car crashes and other automobile injuries/deaths are really only somewhat similar in that various activities/behaviors increase the risk, but ultimately the very nature of being in a moving vehicle requires someone to employ their judgement in the operation of said vehicle... Which in some cases is not good and possibly result in said injuries/deaths.

The short of it is I'm really wanting us to go back to normal and this kind of conversation to not be a thing (because COVID-19 isn't a thing anymore), it seems based on the actual medically researched guidance available - not from just politicians looking to score points - that a low capacity cap on venues with a decent amount of bottlenecks designed into them alongside all of the now-standard sanitization protocols being adhered to plus mask usage is the closest we're going to have to normal for some time to come.

 

[WDWRLD]

we are long past the point where mass-scale reopening is a viable concept given all available evidence from the states that rushed to do so earlier than recommended.

Well tell that to Universal Orlando, WDW, SWO or BGT. They are literally packing the parks to the gills and have had no reported incidents linked back to the parks....or at least ones we have heard of. I could agree that if the parks down there had only been open a week or two that they give it time but we are now 4 months into Universal and Seaworld being open and nothing large scate to write home about. Many of the restrictions they put in place are even easing now. Universal for example has gone back to finger scans at the gate and unlike the rides they do not require hand sanitizer before touching it. So to say BGW needs to stay closed or at their very limited capacity is crazy and unfair to them, their employees, the county and all the other businesses suffering because they are not open.

 

[horsesboy]

There is a huge difference between a legal argument based on a belief that they have proven they can operate safely and are being unfairly punished by a specific restriction (which I would argue is true) and making a legal argument that challenges the legitimacy of ALL COVID-related restrictions, which no major theme park chain would want to be party to.

Doesn't have to be a park there are litterly thousands of smaller businesses that are hanging on by the skin of their teeth all it takes is one to try it before the right judge.

Look, I realize that you are in a business that depends on the travel and amusement industries, and thus have a vested interest in the return to normalcy, but the reality is that the point at which we stop erring on the side of caution is when there is mass distribution of a vaccine. And in truth, we do not know whether or not the park could even be drawing 30% capacity at this time, or whether it would be a situation like with movie theaters where there simply isn’t enough people willing to take the risks associated with gathering in public.

You should realize by now that there is not an audience on this forum for mass removal of restrictions and misguided claims comparing death rates of illnesses or accidents that are NOT airborne viruses they spread rapidly. It’s one thing to make an argument that the park should be allowed to increase capacity (I would even make that argument, and I’m vehemently against expanding reopenings broadly), but we are long past the point where mass-scale reopening is a viable concept given all available evidence from the states that rushed to do so earlier than recommended.

Part of the theater issues is there is a lack of new content to draw people. Why should I go to a theater to watch s movie that I can stream at home? The same is not the case for coasters.

 

[Zachary]

Well tell that to Universal Orlando, WDW, SWO or BGT. They are literally packing the parks to the gills and have had no reported incidents linked back to the parks....or at least ones we have heard of.

Tracing an infection back to a destination park with ANY degree of confidence is essentially impossible as the vast majority of tourists will also experience countless other, non-park potential vectors of infection during a vacation. Except in the most extreme super spreader situations, tracing the infection would be next to impossible. Plus, even if it was somehow narrowed to a park, contact tracing within a populous park is a nonstarter all together. Furthermore, statistically, park visitors (which often skew younger and possibly—especially right now—more healthy than the general population) would be more likely to be asymptomatic than average, making infection detection and potential future contact tracing from that point far less likely. Moreover, none of the parks have actually publicly reported COVID infection numbers amongst employees as far as I'm aware. Worse yet, Orange County's Public Health Director told Bloomberg just the other day that the parks aren't reporting cases directly to the health department and that the health department can't provide an exact number of known infections amongst theme park employees in the Orlando area.

So yeah, Florida as a case study here is wholely useless.

 

[Memles]

Part of the theater issues is there is a lack of new content to draw people. Why should I go to a theater to watch s movie that I can stream at home? The same is not the case for coasters.

Tenet tried. Tenet failed. If the industry truly believed, based on their customer research, that flooding the market with new releases would change the situation, they would be flooding the market with new releases. Instead they’re all bailing for 2021 en masse. The problem is not a lack of content: it’s the fact that the demographic of people willing to go to a movie theater right now is smaller than necessary to sustain the industry, hence why you see an entire distributor close entirely.

Doesn't have to be a park there are litterly thousands of smaller businesses that are hanging on by the skin of their teeth all it takes is one to try it before the right judge.

I have no doubt that there will be lobbyist-funded small business lawsuits in due time, but absolutely nothing about the current situation would suggest that this would actually throw out the state’s emergency orders. Unlike in states like Wisconsin where Republicans control the state legislature and the state supreme court, the same is not true in Virginia, and there is no public appetite for a reduction in restrictions that would make it likely that the Democrats couldn’t move swiftly to return any restrictions in place.

 

[horsesboy]

Tenet tried. Tenet failed. If the industry truly believed, based on their customer research, that flooding the market with new releases would change the situation, they would be flooding the market with new releases. Instead they’re all bailing for 2021 en masse. The problem is not a lack of content: it’s the fact that the demographic of people willing to go to a movie theater right now is smaller than necessary to sustain the industry, hence why you see an entire distributor close entirely.



I have no doubt that there will be lobbyist-funded small business lawsuits in due time, but absolutely nothing about the current situation would suggest that this would actually throw out the state’s emergency orders. Unlike in states like Wisconsin where Republicans control the state legislature and the state supreme court, the same is not true in Virginia, and there is no public appetite for a reduction in restrictions that would make it likely that the Democrats couldn’t move swiftly to return any restrictions in place.

It's true that the democrats hold majorities but not huge ones. Also in at least two of the cases that did go forward earlier a Democrat member of the assembly help represent the plaintive. So it's not a safe assumption that there would be the support if they were to get over turned or even that if new ones were passed that they would be as restrictive as the current ones.

 

[warfelg]

So yeah, Florida as a case study here is wholely useless.

Florida lost any credibility with me what they were proven to be manipulating data, and still do (last I read).

 

[BGWnut]

Tenet tried. Tenet failed. If the industry truly believed, based on their customer research, that flooding the market with new releases would change the situation, they would be flooding the market with new releases. Instead they’re all bailing for 2021 en masse. The problem is not a lack of content: it’s the fact that the demographic of people willing to go to a movie theater right now is smaller than necessary to sustain the industry, hence why you see an entire distributor close entirely.



I have no doubt that there will be lobbyist-funded small business lawsuits in due time, but absolutely nothing about the current situation would suggest that this would actually throw out the state’s emergency orders. Unlike in states like Wisconsin where Republicans control the state legislature and the state supreme court, the same is not true in Virginia, and there is no public appetite for a reduction in restrictions that would make it likely that the Democrats couldn’t move swiftly to return any restrictions in place.

The larger problem with movie theaters is that they are still heavily restricted from opening. If theaters were open in more places then you would likely see more films in theaters. This is what the studios have said as they moved releases. The major movie markets of NY and CA aren't open and without then it isn't as financially feasible.

Tenet did perform well overseas and if it had performed similarly then we likely would still see some big releases on the schedule still. But it was never going to do that because the largest markets were still closed

 

[warfelg]

The larger problem with movie theaters is that they are still heavily restricted from opening. If theaters were open in more places then you would likely see more films in theaters. This is what the studios have said as they moved releases. The major movie markets of NY and CA aren't open and without then it isn't as financially feasible.

Tenet did perform well overseas and if it had performed similarly then we likely would still see some big releases on the schedule still. But it was never going to do that because the largest markets were still closed

I, for one, welcome the return of the drive in theater as a cinema experience.

 

[Memles]

The larger problem with movie theaters is that they are still heavily restricted from opening. If theaters were open in more places then you would likely see more films in theaters. This is what the studios have said as they moved releases. The major movie markets of NY and CA aren't open and without then it isn't as financially feasible.

Tenet did perform well overseas and if it had performed similarly then we likely would still see some big releases on the schedule still. But it was never going to do that because the largest markets were still closed

Even if Tenet had performed at the same levels as it did in the areas where theaters were open in NY/LA, it wouldn't have been the kind of blockbuster opening that would have been necessary to rebuild faith in the box office climate. I do think you might have seen maybe one or two films make an attempt at opening if NY/LA were in play, but I think believing there would be a different result ignores how a lack of demand is the core of the issue.

 

[rswashdc]

I, for one, welcome the return of the drive in theater as a cinema experience.

IMO, the big killer of drive-ins was the major improvements in sound quality and surround sound in movie theaters that drive-ins just couldn't match.

 

[Coasttocoast]

Florida lost any credibility with me what they were proven to be manipulating data, and still do (last I read).

You guys act as if Florida is on fire, burning to the ground, people are screaming in the streets and bodies are piling up waiting to be picked up. Yeah, Florida has been stupid, but just because there is a pandemic doesn’t mean it’s pandemonium. As far as tracing goes, give me us a break! There are literally thousands of people at these parks daily and you talk about the lack of tracing so there’s no way to tell if there’s a link....come on! That’s silly! The overall environment is so hot right now that if there was even an inkling of evidence about an outbreak at one of these parks, it would be picked up by the news in a second!
I’m just surprised @Zachary hasn’t used his investigative abilities in this area yet! I mean you kind of are the best at this stuff!

 

[Jonesta6]

Actual data and using the scientific method to validate or refute it is far different than anecdotal evidence, for starters. Secondly, the argument has been that the data itself is not a full set, possibly corrupted.

People dedicate their livelihoods to finding the truth as best as they can through constant scientific testing and validation, and we're supposed to ignore that in favor of people that just want to go to theme parks and (I'm guessing) have no inclination to indicate these parks in any illness they may have acquired if they even can make that connection in their minds?

Not to mention, most of these parks have really good media management and crisis aversion teams at work. This is especially important given than the virus incubates for a couple of weeks, so the effects aren't necessarily noticable until well after guests have gone home - plausible deniability.

Unlike BGW, which doesn't really need that kind of heavy PR effort since it's much smaller and doesn't attract nearly as many guests.