COVID-19’s Impacts on BGW
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I don't have enough data to know for sure but I think we should be looking at what they did and are doing. If they have decent contact tracing (which I do not know for sure that they do but I am sure that there are ways at a state level to find out) then looking at their data on where the out breaks are occurring most often could be VERY important to states that are reopening. my gut is that you would find it's smaller likely more over crowded venues with no temp checks and other lacks safety procedures that are responsible for a large number of the cases.
As a side note if I were KD or BGW I would be reaching out to SFA and asking if I could send a few people up to see the reopening prosses. I know that they have both likely do it in company as other SEA and CF parks have opened but I would want to be able to point to a more regional example when meeting with the Governor especially since at one point he talked about the need for a regional approach. If nothing else it strengths their case.
A big part of the issue is, at least FL, has been proven to manipulating data. So who’s To say what they have out there is telling the whole picture.
The other issue I have with saying “maybe FL and TX are good examples” is that they closed last and opened first. A stay at home 2 weeks is going to do less to restrict the spread than 8 weeks (VA). FL and TX aren’t really shining examples of what to do.
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Circling back around to this point I made last night -
There are plenty reasons you shouldn't point to TX and FL being the shining example of why our parks should open, yet also a reason for why bars should be closed.
First this is a good read:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...surge-reopening-governor-desantis-coronavirus
Right now we are seeing the effect of Memorial Day weekend party cases. 14 days after and the boom is hitting. Universal reopened June 5th, so if there's going to be a super spreader event tied to Universal's reopening we should see a report this week. SWO reopened June 11th, so if there's going to be a super spreader event tied to SWO's reopening we should see a report late this week, early next week.
And I saw someone post a story about a breakout from a Michigan bar.....your point? There's going to be breakouts because this isn't going away. Period. So pointing to small breakouts in regards to the state as a whole makes a better case for shutting everything down than we should reopen parks and close bars.
What's even funnier IMO is DeSantis's response wasn't entirely to close bars....because if they serve food the requirement was they can't serve alcohol, but there was no impact to capacity. So even there he half assed the response to it. He basically is pointing out that he feels drinking alcohol and staying at the bar is the problem. He did add to his credit that there were bars and residents not following the guidelines and were exceeding the reopening capacity. But that's what you get IMO when you mock the severity of the threat and don't make anything enforceable unless it's done at the locality level.
My big issue with using FL for an example for anything was hit at a touch earlier though: Florida has been known to be taking non-residents and deleting the data of them being positive. So lets say you live in Tampa in the winter but VA is your permanent address. So if you have been in FL since Dec, got sick in Mar, and died down there; Florida wants Virginia to take on the data of that case. So that makes true contact tracing in FL almost impossible because they are disregarding data.
So in the case of this, someone from South Carolina could go to Universal, be asymptomatic before going, spread it to 100 people over that time. 80 of them are from other states. In the way Florida is tracking that data, it would look like a breakout of 20 positive tests came from Universal rather than 100 cases coming from Universal. Especially if that SC resident got sick while in Florida, tested positive while in Florida, hospitalized while in Florida...that case may "never exist" if Florida never claims the case and SC never knew to add it to its stats.
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In regards to contact tracing being more effective at a park versus elsewhere, it appears contact tracing isn't very effective at all...
www.nytimes.com
I think part of the reason for this is regardless of one"s politics, folks are becoming more resistant to privacy intrusions with apps, and given incessant robocalls, many are less apt to pick up the phone if they don't recognize a number.
N.Y.C. Hired 3,000 Workers for Contact Tracing. It’s Off to a Slow Start. (Published 2020)
The program is crucial to the next phase of reopening, which begins on Monday. But workers have not had much success in getting information from people who test positive.
I think part of the reason for this is regardless of one"s politics, folks are becoming more resistant to privacy intrusions with apps, and given incessant robocalls, many are less apt to pick up the phone if they don't recognize a number.
@I64 Trekker I've read those certainly as issues. Dr. Fauci gave an interesting take on it yesterday in that it's so slow because we're starting so late and with so little testing relative to the population it's hard to truly trace the origin. His example was two buddies go to a bar, one tests positive the other doesn't get tested. The one that tests positive only goes to the bar so only the people at the bar are notified. But meanwhile it's the buddy that wasn't tested that spread the coronavirus, and he also went to the grocery store, the mall, the gym, 2 other bars, and the pool. But not knowing he spread it and not being part of the tracing calls, those 6 other places don't know that they could have events.
I believe 2 weeks of true shutdown, with followups, could have been more effective than the last 3 months, although that might be impossible and would certainly require preparation. But we are now where we are.
If we are going to go at this long form, people do need things to do. People are dying from this, but we also get older every second. Not getting to do what you want isn't death, but it still costs some life. So times millions of people, it becomes very important to determine if there are safe activities and actually make available ones that are. It improves life and improves behavior. My instinct is that amusement parks are not very safe, but much harder to gauge than inside activities that are opening, some of which are clearly somewhat risky.
2 big problems are a lack of a leader that can talk to people and encourage them to improve behavior, and a loss of momentum due to it going on so long. I also think a task force of doctors, statisticians, aerodynamicists and gamblers should be assembled to analyze risks.
If we are going to go at this long form, people do need things to do. People are dying from this, but we also get older every second. Not getting to do what you want isn't death, but it still costs some life. So times millions of people, it becomes very important to determine if there are safe activities and actually make available ones that are. It improves life and improves behavior. My instinct is that amusement parks are not very safe, but much harder to gauge than inside activities that are opening, some of which are clearly somewhat risky.
2 big problems are a lack of a leader that can talk to people and encourage them to improve behavior, and a loss of momentum due to it going on so long. I also think a task force of doctors, statisticians, aerodynamicists and gamblers should be assembled to analyze risks.
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How so?
The states that did 2 week shutdowns are seeing the big booms in cases while states that stretched out things over 3 months are trending level or down.
So the original concern was about the VA Governor not allowing BG and KD to reopen?
I do not believe in any case there is a political objective or personal gain motivation here in anyway. I believe we are in a very intense situation in which the governors are attempting their best way to handle the situation; however, every solution pisses off just about everyone. In this situation, everyone wants to so desperately find a conspiracy because dealing with a conspiracy somehow seems easier than dealing with the reality.
The whole purpose of reopening while the virus is still active is to try to change the way we live so we can live with the virus and deal with it while we work on a cure/treatment/thing/whatever.
With that in mind, just like with regulating health codes, the Department of Health should have issued and enforced new and temporary health procedures that should be applied to each business. I would personally suggest the following:
- Physical Distancing - Should be based on square footage of usable space to allow for proper distancing regardless of being indoors or outdoors (NOT an arbitrary percentage or fixed limit)
- Masks/Face Shields - Masks should be required indoors at all times (except in enclosed spaces), Masks should also be required when in a crowded outdoor space, and at the most extreme Face Shields should be required for anyone within 4 feet of another for an extended period of time (not just simply walking by).
- Temperature Checks - Should be require to be performed by every business to every employee or customer prior to them leaving the parking lot into a business.
- Tracing Log - All businesses should have a log of all employees and customers basic information that have visited sorted by day and hour that can allow for the government to easily contact and reach any possibly infected individuals for testings and quarantine.
- Mandatory Paid Quarantine - Businesses should compensate their employees (Only for the Quarantine Period) when they test positive and must mandatory quarantine. (To appease the political debate, the government may or may not reimburse businesses for this, based on what politicians decide)
- Cleaning Procedures - Should be done on a regular timed schedule (such as every 10, 15, 30, 60 minutes) based on the amount of surface contact there is.
All of these new and temporary guidelines should be enforced by the health department as health codes and should have been applied to every business from the beginning. If a business can not follow these guidelines or something happens to cause an outbreak then they need to immediately close and remain closed until they are able to comply and show they can prevent future outbreaks.
It honestly blows my mind that people think a 'phased' opening is going to magically make things better. All it does is set up false goals and is based on arbitrary numbers determined by "testing". What happens when we reach phase four? Everything opens 100% and no restrictions? Seems like we are just setting ourselves up for failure. Do we need to open? Yes, our economy and livelihoods depend on businesses operating. Do we need to shut down? Yes, but only in the areas that cause the outbreaks until we can control them.
I see no reason why to prohibit any business from opening IF AND ONLY IF they can safely and successfully follow all of these or other health procedures deemed necessary. Whether it be bars, grocery stores, or theme parks -- if they can follow the strict health rules applied to them, they should open. If something goes wrong, the procedures don't work or an outbreak happens, shut them down until the problem can be fixed.
On a separate track here,
It should not matter what other states do or how they count - they are an example to learn from. Use whatever information or numbers you are able to get to your best advantage, always. If Florida is doing bad, try to figure out where are the hotspots and why they are hotspots for this virus. Then you can change your plans to better adjust to those results. If some place is doing great, then take what they are doing and apply it to your own plan. You can not go wrong by observing others and applying what you observed to your situation. Whether you learn not to do something or to do something, you can always learn about something. To disregard others completely based on conspiracies, allegations, personal feelings, etc. is just simply being ignorant. You take those into consideration and you weight your options.
I do not believe in any case there is a political objective or personal gain motivation here in anyway. I believe we are in a very intense situation in which the governors are attempting their best way to handle the situation; however, every solution pisses off just about everyone. In this situation, everyone wants to so desperately find a conspiracy because dealing with a conspiracy somehow seems easier than dealing with the reality.
The whole purpose of reopening while the virus is still active is to try to change the way we live so we can live with the virus and deal with it while we work on a cure/treatment/thing/whatever.
With that in mind, just like with regulating health codes, the Department of Health should have issued and enforced new and temporary health procedures that should be applied to each business. I would personally suggest the following:
- Physical Distancing - Should be based on square footage of usable space to allow for proper distancing regardless of being indoors or outdoors (NOT an arbitrary percentage or fixed limit)
- Masks/Face Shields - Masks should be required indoors at all times (except in enclosed spaces), Masks should also be required when in a crowded outdoor space, and at the most extreme Face Shields should be required for anyone within 4 feet of another for an extended period of time (not just simply walking by).
- Temperature Checks - Should be require to be performed by every business to every employee or customer prior to them leaving the parking lot into a business.
- Tracing Log - All businesses should have a log of all employees and customers basic information that have visited sorted by day and hour that can allow for the government to easily contact and reach any possibly infected individuals for testings and quarantine.
- Mandatory Paid Quarantine - Businesses should compensate their employees (Only for the Quarantine Period) when they test positive and must mandatory quarantine. (To appease the political debate, the government may or may not reimburse businesses for this, based on what politicians decide)
- Cleaning Procedures - Should be done on a regular timed schedule (such as every 10, 15, 30, 60 minutes) based on the amount of surface contact there is.
All of these new and temporary guidelines should be enforced by the health department as health codes and should have been applied to every business from the beginning. If a business can not follow these guidelines or something happens to cause an outbreak then they need to immediately close and remain closed until they are able to comply and show they can prevent future outbreaks.
It honestly blows my mind that people think a 'phased' opening is going to magically make things better. All it does is set up false goals and is based on arbitrary numbers determined by "testing". What happens when we reach phase four? Everything opens 100% and no restrictions? Seems like we are just setting ourselves up for failure. Do we need to open? Yes, our economy and livelihoods depend on businesses operating. Do we need to shut down? Yes, but only in the areas that cause the outbreaks until we can control them.
I see no reason why to prohibit any business from opening IF AND ONLY IF they can safely and successfully follow all of these or other health procedures deemed necessary. Whether it be bars, grocery stores, or theme parks -- if they can follow the strict health rules applied to them, they should open. If something goes wrong, the procedures don't work or an outbreak happens, shut them down until the problem can be fixed.
On a separate track here,
It should not matter what other states do or how they count - they are an example to learn from. Use whatever information or numbers you are able to get to your best advantage, always. If Florida is doing bad, try to figure out where are the hotspots and why they are hotspots for this virus. Then you can change your plans to better adjust to those results. If some place is doing great, then take what they are doing and apply it to your own plan. You can not go wrong by observing others and applying what you observed to your situation. Whether you learn not to do something or to do something, you can always learn about something. To disregard others completely based on conspiracies, allegations, personal feelings, etc. is just simply being ignorant. You take those into consideration and you weight your options.
The problem is we have trouble getting that r value much at all below 1, so a very idealized short term shutdown along with phases (including preperation) could have really quickened things .. some amount. But back in March people were still talking about it lasting a few weeks, not acting to make it so. Either way there is still the long after phases, so it wasn't my main point.
Oh I forgot to mention beaches.
Beaches have low contact surfaces, but should be more concerned about physical distancing and capacity. The governments the own the beaches or the individuals/businesses/whomever, should have a method for controlling capacity and ensuring the distancing as well as enforcing masks if need be. This is something that has completely failed and has been lost in the system. There is no one truly controlling beaches or enforcing anything. They are just wide open spaces that no one feels like actually trying to tame.
Beaches have low contact surfaces, but should be more concerned about physical distancing and capacity. The governments the own the beaches or the individuals/businesses/whomever, should have a method for controlling capacity and ensuring the distancing as well as enforcing masks if need be. This is something that has completely failed and has been lost in the system. There is no one truly controlling beaches or enforcing anything. They are just wide open spaces that no one feels like actually trying to tame.
Question on this part specifically: Yes you have to look at what's working elsewhere, but when that elsewhere is purposely changing data it's an unreliable source. Wouldn't you agree with that?
If it is the only source you have, then as I say, you have to take that into consideration. You have to try and determine what exactly is happening. It is still information to look at and think about.
For example, it was mentioned Florida will exclude anyone who is not a resident from their count. Well, if you take that into consideration, you can still use some of that information. Basically, instead of seeing 200 at a bar, you see 20, but you know numbers are being left. Now you know the number is likely higher. Going off of that, if you see there are 20 at one bar but only 5 at another, you can draw comparisons that still assume the difference between the two is similar or significant. That 20 may equate to 200 and that 5 may equate to 50. The difference is still there, just that the numbers are smaller and you have to look beyond that.
The problem is that there is no verification to this method. So you kind've have to guess and hope your on the right track. Once you make decisions and they start working, is only then will you know you actually stumbled on something.
For example, it was mentioned Florida will exclude anyone who is not a resident from their count. Well, if you take that into consideration, you can still use some of that information. Basically, instead of seeing 200 at a bar, you see 20, but you know numbers are being left. Now you know the number is likely higher. Going off of that, if you see there are 20 at one bar but only 5 at another, you can draw comparisons that still assume the difference between the two is similar or significant. That 20 may equate to 200 and that 5 may equate to 50. The difference is still there, just that the numbers are smaller and you have to look beyond that.
The problem is that there is no verification to this method. So you kind've have to guess and hope your on the right track. Once you make decisions and they start working, is only then will you know you actually stumbled on something.
@VonDerrick I'm sorry but I've got to disagree with your conclusion there.
When you leave out cases from people out of state, it makes places that tend to draw tourists safer than places that don't. IE: Universal won't look like a hotspot if you don't record 50% of the cases vs a bar where you do record 90% of the cases. Basically the way Florida is recording data skews the perception of what is and isn't safe. Who knows, Universal could have been the hot spot of an outbreak, but because Florida refuses to count the cases of someone from out of state and the state that the resident is from refuses to count it because the case didn't originate in their state, there's no way to contact trace it to Universal.
So an outbreak effects 200 people at Universal and at a Palm Springs Bar. At Universal 60% of those cases are people who claim a residence in NY, but summer in Florida. Universal's outbreak looks to have effected 80 people (120 erased from the data). But the Palm Springs bar has 95% of the cases that are full time Florida residents. That's 190 cases tied to the bar. Makes the bar look unsafe and universal look safe.
Hence to me, why using data and what's going on in Florida as the barometer for what's safe and what isn't doesn't really reflect that.
A side note, something interesting to see, CNN just flashed up the map of COVID growth, going level, and declining. Every state with cases up also have their amusement parks open. Antidotal? Sure. 100% mean there's a correlation? Sure. But there's also no such thing as a coincidence.
When you leave out cases from people out of state, it makes places that tend to draw tourists safer than places that don't. IE: Universal won't look like a hotspot if you don't record 50% of the cases vs a bar where you do record 90% of the cases. Basically the way Florida is recording data skews the perception of what is and isn't safe. Who knows, Universal could have been the hot spot of an outbreak, but because Florida refuses to count the cases of someone from out of state and the state that the resident is from refuses to count it because the case didn't originate in their state, there's no way to contact trace it to Universal.
So an outbreak effects 200 people at Universal and at a Palm Springs Bar. At Universal 60% of those cases are people who claim a residence in NY, but summer in Florida. Universal's outbreak looks to have effected 80 people (120 erased from the data). But the Palm Springs bar has 95% of the cases that are full time Florida residents. That's 190 cases tied to the bar. Makes the bar look unsafe and universal look safe.
Hence to me, why using data and what's going on in Florida as the barometer for what's safe and what isn't doesn't really reflect that.
A side note, something interesting to see, CNN just flashed up the map of COVID growth, going level, and declining. Every state with cases up also have their amusement parks open. Antidotal? Sure. 100% mean there's a correlation? Sure. But there's also no such thing as a coincidence.
As I said, you have to take what you know into consideration. Obviously you just performed what I said. You took the knowledge of the allegations of Florida's counting into consideration and decided against even looking at the numbers. However, since the decisions aren't made by you, but rather the Governor, it would be his choice to take that into consideration and determine what he feels is best.
I believe coincidences do happen. Humans, by nature, love looking for patterns even where none exist. That is just human nature. That is why we have to rely on actual numbers and not just inferences.
I am curious though; if you don't think the numbers can be trusted, how do you view Florida? An empty void of nothingness that doesn't matter or that everyone is already infected and dead?
I believe coincidences do happen. Humans, by nature, love looking for patterns even where none exist. That is just human nature. That is why we have to rely on actual numbers and not just inferences.
I am curious though; if you don't think the numbers can be trusted, how do you view Florida? An empty void of nothingness that doesn't matter or that everyone is already infected and dead?
I view anything from Florida right now in terms of how something should be done as a 'grain of salt' look at it. And I don't think the numbers can't be trusted. I know the numbers can't be trusted. I absolutely wouldn't say its an empty void of nothingness or that everyone is already infected and dead. Those would both be absurd takes. I view Florida as potentially worse than it currently is, an example of what not to do, and easy proof as to why wearing a mask can help prevent the spread of coronavirus.
Basically take everything Florida has done the last month and don't do it.
And that follows my surface point. You take what you learn from other states, and in this case that happens to be 'Don't do it', and you apply it to your own. You took into consideration that the situation may be worse because it may not be reported accurately.
I think the problem there was the earlier conversation took what was happening in Florida and separated out bars vs theme parks as to what the issue was. My point is because they are changing data, I don't feel you can separate them. The use of news to defend that point turns more antidotal to me than proof. They were saying because there's no news stories of tracing breakouts to parks, but there was to bars, then we should open parks. When you delete the data of tourists and out of state people, tourist attractions will of course look better because less cases will be tied to them.
Well, if only we had a federal response to standardize everything . . .
I broke my computer liking this post.
I agree that the federal government had a much bigger role to play than they did and agree that a standard set of protocols might have helped. That being said though, a truly standardized approach across the board, and not based upon the situations on the ground is like the difference between a war game simulation and an actual war. Being able to be flexible in ways to attack this thing is important because a one sized fits all approach doesn’t always address what’s actually going on on the ground.