COVID-19’s Impacts on BGW

[warfelg]

Just to add to what @Jonesta6 wrote, my company did something similar in a questionnaire, and had about 4 questions. We put a thing called motion measurement on students. It's a shoulder harness and a waste belt that students wear. During one all hands call, someone asked about us having about 3-5 similar questions about putting it on, and they said the reasoning is to assess if the student would remain consistent so they could tell if students would be able to follow guidelines well enough that it was safe to use.

It's possible BGW is using it that way.

 

[horsesboy]

Unless.....they dont open at all this season and by next the mask issue should be over.

I would not count on next year being mask free. A number of public health experts have started to warn that mask might very well be around for another 3 to 4 years at a minimum.

 

[horsesboy]

Attendance to regional parks is not low because of masks. It's low because of the required reservation systems in place. Your day has to be planned way in advance, whereas places like beaches and parks can be visited without the advance planning. Parks like Disney won't be affected because they have such a large draw regionally, domestically, and internationally.

Actually not true I planned my SFA visit at 10 last night and was still able to book for gate opening so I mean I guess 13 hours could be considered way in advance.

 

[I64 Trekker]

I would not count on next year being mask free. A number of public health experts have started to warn that mask might very well be around for another 3 to 4 years at a minimum.

Anyone thinking masks are temporary or only for the next 3 - 4 years is foolish. They will be mandated permanently, as variations of COVID-19, as well as seasonal flu strains, will always pose risks to portions of the population.

 

[Zachary]

I’ve read some wild, totally unfounded conspiracy theories lately, but this is a new level of absurdity. Was this a special report on One America News or is this something you've read on a local "Reopen ______" Facebook group?

Seriously, masks are a temporary bandaid to enable more reopenings while attempting to keep the curve as flat as possible until we have a more permanent solution—whether that be effective therapies, an effective vaccine, naturally occurring herd immunity, or even a successful, widespread, rapid testing program—you know, the kind that we should have had months ago.

You can believe whatever you want, but if you're going to spout off absurd claims like "[masks] will be mandated permanently" here on ParkFans, you better have some actual data to back it up—otherwise I'll be here to stamp it out.

Americans may need to wear masks for up to 18 months, Yale expert says

Health officials across the United States did an about-face on face coverings last week as pressure mounted from experts in the medical community. Now a top Yale University doctor is suggesting Americans should get used to the idea of wearing face masks well into next year to curtail COVID-19...

news.yahoo.com

How Long Are We Going to Be Wearing Masks? We Asked the Experts

 

[I64 Trekker]

Why is this absurd? Variations of the flu, often spread in the same way as COVID-19, kill tens of thousands each and every year. If masks help with COVID-19, they would also help with the flu. Wouldn't we do everything we can to keep protecting the vulnerable?

 

[Jonesta6]

I think the difference you're looking for @I64 Trekker is that while mask wearing during flu season may make sense, it seems highly unlikely that it would actually be mandated by any governing body in this country.

 

[Zachary]

First off, COVID-19 isn't the seasonal flu and drawing equivalencies between the two is a pretty reliable indicator of an ignorant or just generally bad-faith argument.

Secondly, we don't mandate getting the flu vaccine and, from what I understand, that is already, on average, a far better, less socially-intrusive way to avoid the spread of the seasonal flu. We, as a culture, have accepted the (much smaller) risks associated with a normal flu season. The much larger risks brought by COVID-19—particularly its unique ability to bring our healthcare infastructure to its knees and a general lack of knowledge as per its long-term impacts—are what have galvanized action. When COVID-19 subsides, the precautions taken to ward it off will subside as well.

Will there be questions raised in the aftermath about maybe doing more to combat seasonal flu as well? I hope so. That said, I have seen no credible coalition of experts suggest anything even remotely close to a permanent mask mandate. Alleging that such an extreme, unfounded, policy position is already our permanent reality right now—when we're dealing with a REAL public health and economic CRISIS that CAN be combated with masks—reads as nothing more than anti-science, partisan, fear-mongering aimed to scare people about a wildly unrealistic possiblity of a cultural slippery-slope.

We're in a hurricane. They closed the beaches. You know what we shouldn't be worried about? Protesting the beach closure because "wHAt IF tHEy NEveR rEoPEn ThE bEAcHEs?!?" People get injured and die at beaches all the goddamn time under normal circumstances, but they only close when the threat is severe. After that threat passes, the status quo level of risk associated with the activity is restored, and the beaches reopen just as they were before the hurricane showed up. COVID is the hurricane and mask mandates are the beach closures. When the storm passes, the restrictions will too.

Anyway, overall, I think this "slippery slope" nonsense is logical malpractice and, frankly, just really a piss-poor rhetorical ploy to spin people up into acting against their own interests. What I find particularly grueling though is that I know people will buy into this nonsense hook-line-and-sinker if it goes unrefuted. Thus, here I am, getting drawn into debating another absurd, baseless conspiracy theory about masks in a BGW thread.

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻

 

[I64 Trekker]

COVID case uptick in Virginia prompts warning from the governor: 'I won't hesitate to impose restrictions'

'I won't hesitate to impose restrictions'

www.wtvr.com

 

[Alf33]

Secondly, we don't mandate getting the flu vaccine and, from what I understand, that is already, on average, a far better, less socially-intrusive way to avoid the spread of the seasonal flu. We, as a culture, have accepted the (much smaller) risks associated with a normal flu season.

Agreed. The seasonal flu vaccine is recommended, but not mandatory like you mention, for older people and those with health conditions that make them vulnerable to it. Also the seasonal flu vaccine is a guess each year for the medical docs as to which version to produce as it's not known which version will hit each year. As such, depending on which flu hits vice which vaccine is produced the efficacy of the vaccine ranges from only about 25% if they guess wrong to about 70% if they guess right. And even this doesn't keep you from catching it. It just helps your symptoms to not be as bad so you'll recover faster. Also you can go to a store and buy OTC medicine to help with the seasonal flu if you catch it. Who knows if there will ever be an OTC medicine you'll be able to buy for COVID-19.

 

[rswashdc]

There’s definitely a psychological trauma effect with COVID-19 that could keep masks in place for quite awhile, though I doubt the several years claims since barring a major mutation, herd immunity and vaccines should start limiting transmission severely at some point.

Lots of talk about everyone coming back in 2021, but if were still wearing masks and social distancing next spring/summer because of a tough winter, I don’t see how the operating environment improves much for the parks. Universal or Hershey’s can survive a couple lackluster years with their corporate parents, but when we start talking about a bad 2021, how well can SEAS or SIX survive without making drastic changes.

 

[Alf33]

Herd immunity is kind of unrealistic. This is because I was listening to a doctor on TV (MSNBC) talking about this and he said that in order for the US to achieve herd immunity we need to have 50% of the population be infected. He said we're currently at like 8 or 9 percent (estimated) infection rate for the whole country. To achieve the 50% mark we'll need to have around 370,000 new cases a day for 365 days. I don't think that most people would accept this. If this doctors opinion is valid then we'll only get out of this by a vaccine or some serious regionial shut downs in numerous parts of the country. He didn't believe that a country wide shut down would be necessary because of how NY, NJ and CT managed to fight the virus.

 

[bill s]

I think there is a narrow area between the people willing to wear a mask to a park and those unwilling to go because of the danger. I don't think rides are safe without masks but you need a chance to ventilate your face from time to time. I was only inside SFA about 90 minutes, and not the hottest part, got a couple chances to ventilate not around other people ventilating, and still went from the exit gate to the closest trash can. I don't know why they have cool down areas with no visible sign (laying on a table) or not mentioned on their website. Maybe they want people to expect worse than it is so the worst people won't come.

I would not count on next year being mask free. A number of public health experts have started to warn that mask might very well be around for another 3 to 4 years at a minimum.

The public health experts better realize Americans will not participate that long, period.

Actually not true I planned my SFA visit at 10 last night and was still able to book for gate opening so I mean I guess 13 hours could be considered way in advance.

I checked the site a few times and haven't seen any case you can't reserve any time you want. At 6 pm on July 4, 6 PM was available and every time slot the next day. This is a bad sign because the idea is that the most popular times will fill up and push people to less popular times.

 

[bill s]

My directly virus-related replies:

Seriously, masks are a temporary bandaid to enable more reopenings while attempting to keep the curve as flat as possible until we have a more permanent solution—whether that be effective therapies, an effective vaccine, naturally occurring herd immunity, or even a successful, widespread, rapid testing program—you know, the kind that we should have had months ago.

I've been asking a question to the air every couple of weeks: what the fuck is going on? Here we have a virus that, according to the doctor that tested me, is highly contagious for only a few days, and except for the rare asymptomatic case or extended sickness, the original contention that it lasts 2 weeks has not been contradicted. Yet we have been in supposed lockdown for what will be 4 months next week. They need to get together a plan that will kill this thing, although that it has ground along so long will make it harder. For example, 10 days where everyone is truly quarantined, with followup on groups. Actually, larger groups are better because it becomes almost impossible for not at least one person to show symptoms if the group is infected. It doesn't matter how long it takes to prepare for this, if the plan is correct the corona will be gone forever unless they open the borders to somewhere that did not, along with all those flu's too.

Re: herd immunity, I pointed out the fallacy of that here over 3 months ago. However, I do think there is a selective immunity where the people most at risk already have had it. I don't know how that helps bring everybody back out.

239 scientests ban together to write a warning on the airborne transmission

I'm still trying to figure out how this isn't old news. 2 months should considered ancient history.

Masks are like bra's. They may be uncomfortable, they must be worn in public, but you can take it off as soon as you go out the exit gate.

Fix'd!

 

[horsesboy]

First off, COVID-19 isn't the seasonal flu and drawing equivalencies between the two is a pretty reliable indicator of an ignorant or just generally bad-faith argument.

Secondly, we don't mandate getting the flu vaccine and, from what I understand, that is already, on average, a far better, less socially-intrusive way to avoid the spread of the seasonal flu. We, as a culture, have accepted the (much smaller) risks associated with a normal flu season. The much larger risks brought by COVID-19—particularly its unique ability to bring our healthcare infastructure to its knees and a general lack of knowledge as per its long-term impacts—are what have galvanized action. When COVID-19 subsides, the precautions taken to ward it off will subside as well.

Will there be questions raised in the aftermath about maybe doing more to combat seasonal flu as well? I hope so. That said, I have seen no credible coalition of experts suggest anything even remotely close to a permanent mask mandate. Alleging that such an extreme, unfounded, policy position is already our permanent reality right now—when we're dealing with a REAL public health and economic CRISIS that CAN be combated with masks—reads as nothing more than anti-science, partisan, fear-mongering aimed to scare people about a wildly unrealistic possiblity of a cultural slippery-slope.

We're in a hurricane. They closed the beaches. You know what we shouldn't be worried about? Protesting the beach closure because "wHAt IF tHEy NEveR rEoPEn ThE bEAcHEs?!?" People get injured and die at beaches all the goddamn time under normal circumstances, but they only close when the threat is severe. After that threat passes, the status quo level of risk associated with the activity is restored, and the beaches reopen just as they were before the hurricane showed up. COVID is the hurricane and mask mandates are the beach closures. When the storm passes, the restrictions will too.

Anyway, overall, I think this "slippery slope" nonsense is logical malpractice and, frankly, just really a piss-poor rhetoric ploy to spin people up into acting against their own interests. What I find particularly grueling though is that I know people will buy into this nonsense hook-line-and-sinker if it goes unrefuted. Thus, here I am, getting drawn into debating another absurd, baseless conspiracy theory about masks in a BGW thread.

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻

To be clear I not saying that I think that there is some plan to make them permit but I have seen where a number of health officials have said that we could be possibly be looking at them for possibly as much as the next 4 years or so as they think that the prosses of both developing a vaccine and getting it into enough people to make the need go away could take that long. I think we have to seriously consider that we could be in for a longer haul then many seem to currently think.

 

[Zachary]

Yep, I have no qualms thinking that this could be a long-haul situation now that community spread is prevent in the vast majority of our large country. Hopefully Project Warp Speed turns up a solution relatively quickly, but if not, yeah, I accept that this could be a long slog. I was just meaning to speak out against the assertion that it was going to be permanently mandated though—that it had become a policy position that was somehow independent of the current crisis. Sorry if it seemed like I was coming out against your position!

 

[rswashdc]

Herd immunity is kind of unrealistic. This is because I was listening to a doctor on TV (MSNBC) talking about this and he said that in order for the US to achieve herd immunity we need to have 50% of the population be infected. He said we're currently at like 8 or 9 percent (estimated) infection rate for the whole country. To achieve the 50% mark we'll need to have around 370,000 new cases a day for 365 days. I don't think that most people would accept this. If this doctors opinion is valid then we'll only get out of this by a vaccine or some serious regionial shut downs in numerous parts of the country. He didn't believe that a country wide shut down would be necessary because of how NY, NJ and CT managed to fight the virus.

If you get 20% through infection and another 30% vaccinated that will get you to 50%. The thing with herd immunity is the models are all over the place depending how you put in assumptions. I’ve seen estimates from 20% up to 80% needed for herd immunity based on if you use Pareto type assumptions about individual contact versus a more straight line assumption.

I would note that herd immunity is not a wise strategy as virus mutations could relegate it useless if he mutations can reinfect people.

 

[horsesboy]

Yep, I have no qualms thinking that this could be a long-haul situation now that community spread is prevent in the vast majority of our large country. Hopefully Project Warp Speed turns up a solution relatively quickly, but if not, yeah, I accept that this could be a long slog. I was just meaning to speak out against the assertion that it was going to be permanently mandated though—that it had become a policy position that was somehow independent of the current crisis. Sorry if it seemed like I was coming out against your position!

No I understood where you were coming from especially after the one reply that was posted to my comments. I just wanted to clarify what I was saying and distance my comments from any conspiracy talk.

 

[Nicole]

Just to be clear, it already has mutated.

A new coronavirus mutation is taking over the world. Here's what that means.

A SARS-CoV-2 variant has taken over the world, but it's not clear whether the coronavirus mutation is highly transmissible or just lucky.

www.livescience.com

 

[VonDerrick]

So BGW ... see ya in 2021?