COVID-19’s Impacts on BGW

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Zachary said:
I think @madmax is referencing the IHME model (make sure you set the location to Virginia):

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org
Click to expand...

Sure, but that is one model.

It's kinda like hurricanes in that there are multiple models and meteorologists interpret/average the results.

Except that all of the models are still in development; so their accuracy cannot be high.

Hence the scientists averaging it out to "late April to early May".
 
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Zachary said:
I think @madmax is referencing the IHME model (make sure you set the location to Virginia):

covid19.healthdata.org

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org covid19.healthdata.org
Click to expand...

Something very important I take away from that (even though I think that's one of the most pessimistic modelings I'be seen) is that while ICU beds will be short by almost 600 in Va, overall hospital beds will be well safe.

As for this impact on BGW specifically:
I wonder if parks have had internal talks of "break even dates" where if they don't open by that day if it's better to shut down for the year. I wonder what that would look like. Also given that BGW is often well maintained outside of rides, if they would open as literally just a park and no ride/show operations. Open snack and food stations, and just give a place for people to go and be as the curve starts downward.
 
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warfelg said:
Something very important I take away from that (even though I think that's one of the most pessimistic modelings I'be seen) is that while ICU beds will be short by almost 600 in Va, overall hospital beds will be well safe.

As for this impact on BGW specifically:
I wonder if parks have had internal talks of "break even dates" where if they don't open by that day if it's better to shut down for the year. I wonder what that would look like. Also given that BGW is often well maintained outside of rides, if they would open as literally just a park and no ride/show operations. Open snack and food stations, and just give a place for people to go and be as the curve starts downward.
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I don’t think there’d be a “break even date” for opening the park itself, but there would be break even dates for rides and attractions. If this goes into late summer or fall, I’d bet only a percentage of rides would be opened even if social distancing went away completely, just from the investment in getting everything up and running for a short season.
 
rswashdc said:
I don’t think there’d be a “break even date” for opening the park itself, but there would be break even dates for rides and attractions. If this goes into late summer or fall, I’d bet only a percentage of rides would be opened even if social distancing went away completely, just from the investment in getting everything up and running for a short season.
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There's definitely a break even point.

There is upfront investment in terms of hiring, staff training and stocking. That investment needs to have a large enough return for the park to justify the expense. They have already made some of this investment when they were prepping BGW to open just a couple weeks ago.

Some of this investment was lost in terms of the food stocks which were donated in lieu of letting them go bad.
 
Jahrules said:
There's definitely a break even point.

There is upfront investment in terms of hiring, staff training and stocking. That investment needs to have a large enough return for the park to justify the expense. They have already made some of this investment when they were prepping BGW to open just a couple weeks ago.

Some of this investment was lost in terms of the food stocks which were donated in lieu of letting them go bad.
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Maybe if it got to October/November with no end in sight, then yes at that point the season could be lost. Halloween and Christmas are big draw events so even an abbreviated version of these would be worth trying to have.
 
Well with 90% of the park staff furloughed it is going to take some effort to get the park open. Even maintenance and ride operations were furloughed.
 
Maintenance is not essential?????? Maybe they will have some lead time as to when they can re-open the park and bring them in early.
 
If the rides aren’t running, there’s no reason to have maintenance there. Given the zero hour initial delay response, I would think that off-season maintenance was done.
 
My understanding from people working there was maintenance was still coming in on limited schedules to at least operate the rides since they were taken out of their annual maintenance/storage setup for the park to open. That said, they may have changed that.

Otherwise, maintenance is still essential for other reasons besides running rides. What happens when something brakes or gets damaged that isn't necessarily a ride. Having regular maintenance is kinda important in case emergencies pop up or just for you know routine regular preventative maintenance for their buildings and other facilities.
 
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I would guess that there's still go to be a few people there though to do some basic ride stuff.

Side note on BGW:
I actually think this is a great time with all of this downtime to have a small small cleaning crew (think like 4-5 people tops) and have them go to each individual spot and really clean it good. I'm talking about removing everything from shelves, getting up on ladders to dust and wipe light fixtures and fans, power wash parts of buildings that can't normally be reached.

I know there's a QC thread buried around here somewhere that people usually post pictures of dirty and broken things. That's the type of stuff that they should have a small team from cleaning and maintenance doing in this downtime. Even if, like I said, it's only 4-5 people. It's not like this all needs to be ready to open tomorrow.

Maybe it's a bit of a wish and hope, but it would be really nice if they did that. And not just them but closed retailers, other parks, and other businesses.
 
Jahrules said:
There's definitely a break even point.

There is upfront investment in terms of hiring, staff training and stocking. That investment needs to have a large enough return for the park to justify the expense. They have already made some of this investment when they were prepping BGW to open just a couple weeks ago.

Some of this investment was lost in terms of the food stocks which were donated in lieu of letting them go bad.
Click to expand...

I don't really think there's point where they won't open and not get some revenue this year. All of the people that were furloughed won't need to be retrained when they are brought back. Honestly the biggest time commitment will just be in the cleaning and prep that will have to be done when they come back before opening. The longer the closure the more time they will need before reopening. So while I don't think there is a break even point, I think that there might be a point where the work needed to get reopened will take too long for them to reopen. If they open in May or June they will likely need a week. If it's the end of the summer to September probably 2 weeks. From then it's probably 3 weeks to a month. Honestly if it gets too November, I could see them only doing a partial open for Christmas
Town. The park will do whatever it can to be open for at least a little bit this year so that they can at least have some income on the books at some point.
 
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Well done Knotts.......I hope other parks take notice. Wish BGW would let us know what’s happening. I’ve heard people can call and put a hold on their payments but it’s a case by case basis.

California's Best Theme Park & Amusement Park | Knott's Berry Farm

Fun is always in season at Knott’s Berry Farm! With dozens of rides, roller coasters, & attractions in five themed areas, there is something for everyone!
www.knotts.com www.knotts.com
 
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Knott’s is a different ballgame because the they’re open daily year-round, versus mostly weekends-only for BGW and KD during the closure. That means Knott’s seemingly owes more to their passholders since they have lost and will continue to lose far more operating days than BGW and KD will. Plus, their cash-cow Halloween event isn’t automatically included in their passes, so extending their passes to 2021 isn’t as much of a financial blow for the park.

For these reasons, I don’t think we can expect BGW or KD to do something similar yet - at least not because Knott’s did it.
 
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Joe said:
For these reasons, I don’t think we can expect BGW or KD to do something similar yet - at least not because Knott’s did it.
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This is the problem I have had trying to explain it to friends. They think that because they paid for their Platinum Passes at Canada's Wonderland, Dorney Park, etc. they're entitled to a free additional year on a Platinum Pass.
 
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Joe said:
Knott’s is a different ballgame because the they’re open daily year-round, versus mostly weekends-only for BGW and KD during the closure. That means Knott’s seemingly owes more to their passholders since they have lost and will continue to lose far more operating days than BGW and KD will. Plus, their cash-cow Halloween event isn’t automatically included in their passes, so extending their passes to 2021 isn’t as much of a financial blow for the park.

For these reasons, I don’t think we can expect BGW or KD to do something similar yet - at least not because Knott’s did it.
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I would actually argue the opposite. Knots will lose less of a percentage of their season then other parks. Who has the greater lose some one who loses 60 days outbid 365 daysnor someone who loses 60 out of a say 200? I am not saying that we are there yet but if we don't get to open them by early June then a big enough percentage has been lost that it may very well justify doing so.
 
Washingtonian said:
Since Disneyworld/land has chosen to not charge people for annual passes for the time being, will Busch Gardens do the same:
www.usatoday.com

Disney World, Disneyland halt annual passholder payments during coronavirus closures

Disney World and Disneyland annual passholders will not be charged while the parks are closed due to COVID-19. Payments made from March 14-April 4 will be refunded.
www.usatoday.com
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Busch already is not charging for April for people that are month to month and adding a free month to the end for people that paid in full it remains to be seen how much further they will go then that. But it's worth noting even Disney which is in a much better financial state is taking an extremely hard hit. I really have some serious concerns about Sea's ability to weather this if it goes past May.
 
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We are month to month and the passes usually come out on the 1st. Busch charged us the April payment on March 29. Quite shady.

horsesboy said:
Busch already is not charging for April for people that are month to month and adding a free month to the end for people that paid in full it remains to be seen how much further they will go then that. But it's worth noting even Disney which is in a much better financial state is taking an extremely hard hit. I really have some serious concerns about Sea's ability to weather this if it goes past May.
Click to expand...
 
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