COVID-19 Impacts on Kings Dominion

[rswashdc]

Indoor water park, maybe - I think CF has ownership in a small one of those on the road into CP.

Casinos have actually been legalized as of the last regular general assembly session, but will probably be a few years until any are open - only 5 localities can have a singular casino in them with Richmond being the closest. IMO though, I don't think CF would want that as it'd divert attention from the park and probably draw a different demographic than they're aiming for. Also, if they're not fully operating it they'd probably not get too much revenue out of the deal.

I would think CF could do a land lease with a MGM, Caesars, etc. to get a hotel and casino built on site with associated restaurants, stores, and conference centers. CF could then build/operate an indoor water park to complement the hotel/casino.

Getting a resort on site completely changes the dynamics of what KD is since it can become part of a multi-day trip and vacation packages the way BGW is in Williamsburg and Hershey Park is with the amenities around it. This makes CF's land a lot more valuable and desirable for further projects in the area.

 

[Jonesta6]

I would think CF could do a land lease with a MGM, Caesars, etc. to get a hotel and casino built on site with associated restaurants, stores, and conference centers. CF could then build/operate an indoor water park to complement the hotel/casino.

Getting a resort on site completely changes the dynamics of what KD is since it can become part of a multi-day trip and vacation packages the way BGW is in Williamsburg and Hershey Park is with the amenities around it. This makes CF's land a lot more valuable and desirable for further projects in the area.

Highly unlikely there will ever be a legal casino in Hanover, but some more likely other year-round plan would definitely change the dynamics of the property.

But that would be the case with or without the pandemic, so after a point this would probably be a concept for that thread though?

 

[MikeLovesKD]

This is really scary to think about. There are other things I would like to say; but the forum is not a place for political debate, so I'll keep it out. Many of you are more optimistic than what I am. For some reason I have negative thoughts about the Governors capacity number and the effects of the park being closed. I am on Cedar Fair's side that he didn't consider the number of people per acres when he made his decision. That number would have been ideal for a small park like Six Flags America; but for KD it was very low. He's obviously never been to either park to know how big Kings Dominion and Bush Gardens are.

Can someone help me with the math. We all know that KD's attendance on busy days comes from north of the park. That's everything from Fredericksburg, all the way up to Washington metropolitan area. I've driven the distance many times to know that if your driving anywhere within the 495 region; it takes at least 2 hours to reach KD; even if you take route-301 to avoid I-95. With 1,000 capacity; how many of those guests do you think are at the park when they open? Let's take into account that not everyone wants to spend a whole day at the park. Some people arrive as late as 3pm or 4pm if they want to stay until closing. But as we know, this is generally determines by how far you drove? If you live all the way in Pennsylvania, your probably spending an entire day there. If you live in MD, DC or Northern VA; your generally arriving at the park no later than 3pm-4pm so you can get your money's worth.

Here's the math question. If the park were given a capacity of 3,500 to 4,500; at what times do you think the majority of that capacity would enter the park? Let's pretend that the park operated with "LIMITED ATTRACTIONS".

* All Planet Snoopy Rides
* Dominator
* Twisted Timbers
* Drop Tower
* Delirium
* Flight of Fear
* I-305(4pm-9pm)

I'm trying to think as the Governor of VA. If he is worried about the park not being able to handle social distancing protocols with rides; I would say that all depends on how packed the park is at particular times of the day. For all we know; the majority of people might not show up until the evening. That leaves the mornings very manageable. I chose a limited operation for I-305 for the simple reason of operation cost and crowding. If it were open all day; then you'd probably have the majority of people slammed up in there by the morning all through the day. The first five hours of operation are easily handled with a modified line for Flight of Fear.

Here is how I pictured Flight of Fear operating. Rather than having people enter the normal way; there would be a queue set up outside of the exit. Here is how it could work. The ride has two trains. The only people in the station are the ride attendants and the people boarding the train. Once that train is dispatched; the next group of people can enter the station. When the first train returns; the riders must wait until the second train has been loaded. Once it has been loaded; the people in the unloading station can make their way down the hall and continue their exit through the flying saucer down into the hanger area. That way, it avoids a cluster of people walking out as other people are waiting to enter.

 

[bill s]

^^-- Northam has emphasized he will close things back down if necessary. Allowing businesses with higher expectations to open would make that more awkward and damaging.

 

[Jonesta6]

Regardless of political opinion overall, I think the governor is trying to do his best to both mitigate an outbreak and limit risk to both guests and employees.

Is it heavy-handed when you compare to other states? That really depends on how much these restrictions help - without the contact tracing and everything else that can skew data we really don't have a reliable way get an accurate assessment.

All that being said, CF did have the same opportunity BGW is currently using to at least partially open.

My guess is it came down to costs and low demand - a lot easier to continue paying sunk costs like taxes and whatever minimal utility payments with little to no staff on-site while not shelling out the big bucks on staffing, higher utility bills to run rides and allow guests to go to the bathroom, and all the provisions and expendable items needed for operating the park. And, since other CF properties are already open and making money, they could possibly restructure their finances to keep the park floating along until they can fully open it.

Finally, as had been mentioned, CF simply rolled passholders to the next year - if it's still bad next year, it's possible they could either continue rolling or provide a refund fairly easily since they don't have to keep track of payments and dates and all the crazy things a membership plan entails.

 

[MikeLovesKD]

Regardless of political opinion overall, I think the governor is trying to do his best to both mitigate an outbreak and limit risk to both guests and employees.

Is it heavy-handed when you compare to other states? That really depends on how much these restrictions help - without the contact tracing and everything else that can skew data we really don't have a reliable way get an accurate assessment.

All that being said, CF did have the same opportunity BGW is currently using to at least partially open.

My guess is it came down to costs and low demand - a lot easier to continue paying sunk costs like taxes and whatever minimal utility payments with little to no staff on-site while not shelling out the big bucks on staffing, higher utility bills to run rides and allow guests to go to the bathroom, and all the provisions and expendable items needed for operating the park. And, since other CF properties are already open and making money, they could possibly restructure their finances to keep the park floating along until they can fully open it.

Finally, as had been mentioned, CF simply rolled passholders to the next year - if it's still bad next year, it's possible they could either continue rolling or provide a refund fairly easily since they don't have to keep track of payments and dates and all the crazy things a membership plan entails.

I doubt they want to refund pass holders. I'd put a pretty penny on them attempting to open for 2021. One thing you were right about is demand. If they opened this season; there may not have been a high demand for people in the Washington Metropolitan region to drive down there. On rainy days, there may not have even been enough people present to justify staying open. But there is one thing that could cost the park a serious future loss. That one thing is; being closed for 2021. Take into account that the pandemic has changed people's way of thinking. When something has been closed for a long period of time, people will eventually move onto other important things or find other recreations to do. So let's pretend 2021 is a bust and the park finally opens in late 2021 or 2022. It takes time for word of mouth to circulate. There is social media, email and television; but not everyone is faithfully linked to KD in their personal life. We as enthusiast would know that the park has finally opened; but for them to receive those big crowds on weekends, may take time to rebuild. Remember; Six Flags America and Hershey Park are functioning.

2021 is important for all their properties and I think Cedar Fair understands this. There may still be lingering covid numbers after the Fall season; but when the number takes a respect drop; my guess is that Cedar Fair's corporate attorneys will attempt to pressure state Governments on raising the capacity numbers. This will play a major role for KD. The company will want most of their season pass holders to plan for next season, so my guess is that they pressure the state Governors right after the election. That's only if the covid numbers drop.

 

[madmax]

I seriously doubt the park won't open for most of 2021. The virus will still be around but by then we will have a vaccine available in some form and greater knowledge on how to handle the virus then we had back in spring-summer. But I still see social distancing and masks.

 

[Jonesta6]

I see capacity caps for the have few seasons tbh.

I am curious if what @MikeLovesKD is saying is true that it's the NOVA/DC market making up a large chunk of the guests during any given crowded weekend/event - my guess would be the RVA metro and more or less anywhere within about an hour's drive, especially since you have BGW to the east, SFA close to home, and relatively close proximity to PA parks if you're already willing to drive a few hours to get to KD.

 

[rswashdc]

I see capacity caps for the have few seasons tbh.

I am curious if what @MikeLovesKD is saying is true that it's the NOVA/DC market making up a large chunk of the guests during any given crowded weekend/event - my guess would be the RVA metro and more or less anywhere within about an hour's drive, especially since you have BGW to the east, SFA close to home, and relatively close proximity to PA parks if you're already willing to drive a few hours to get to KD.

KD is an hour or a little more from much of NOVA, and NOVA is much bigger than RVA. Going to BGW adds another hour plus to the drive and the PA parks are over 2 hours away. Even Hersheys is a good 1:45 from the MD suburbs.

SFA is basically irrelevant around DC except for those who live nearby and use it as a cheap water park (I believe it’s the cheapest water park in the metro area for a season pass).

For southern Fairfax, PWC, and Stafford, KD makes the most sense for quick day trips.

 

[UncleDuncan]

I live in the DMV area. 2.25 hours to HP and the same to BGW. 1 hour to KD if I'm driving slow and roughly 45 minutes to SFA on a good day.

I have season tickets to KD. And, its the only park I would entertain buying a season pass to, really, when you factor quality rides and drive time.

 

[rswashdc]

I live in the DMV area. 2.25 hours to HP and the same to BGW. 1 hour to KD if I'm driving slow and roughly 45 minutes to SFA on a good day.

I have season tickets to KD. And, its the only park I would entertain buying a season pass to, really, when you factor quality rides and drive time.

Big issue with KD is that 1 hour easily becomes 1:45 - 2 hours depending on 95 traffic. I am also 2:15 from Hersheys, but there’s rarely traffic problems and 15 is much more pleasant to drive up than 95 or the 95/64 combo to BGW.

 

[Jonesta6]

While it's certainly possible you guys represent the majority, I'm still curious if that's the case.

Anywho, I would like to use my pass ASAP so...

 

[rswashdc]

Anecdotally, most the people I've come across at KD I don't know came from southern NOVA and central VA around towards Charlottesville. I think KD is basically attracting the crowd where KD is the closest park and doesn't involve driving past KD to get to BGW.

 

[MikeLovesKD]

I can honestly say that most of the people I have met at KD over the years were north of the park. As for the SFA comments; I can say that most of the Washington Metropolitan area disregards the park. They haven't gotten a big coaster in 20 years. And from the looks of it; there have been no plans for the company to add one. This is why most of the Washington/Baltimore area, saves up for a couple of visits to KD during each summer and one visit for HAUNT.

Back on topic. If there is another long delay in opening for 2021; the park could suffer. Let's take SFA for example. It's already been proven and stated that most of the Norther VA/DC region disregards the park. They attendance numbers aren't as high as they use to be and it's been like that for about ten years or so. Picture SFA not being open for 2020 and possibly 2021. If it were to finally open in 2022, the place would probably look like a ghost town. Now picture KD. If the park remains closed for 2021; do you think the Washington Metropolitan region will count on it opening for 2022? Remember; we are enthusiast on this site. We keep up with opening dates, park news, park emails, etc. Some of us might have kids, but we are still in the realm of coaster enthusiast. Other people, aren't; so they may in turn begin to disregard anything that isn't apart of their day to day. Eventually people find new things to do and may catch on late; that the park is open. Remember, KD is a 2 hour ride from Washington DC/Maryland. If they aren't positive that the place is open; they won't waste the gas to find out.

Jonesta6; believe me. I am right about KD's crowd on the weekends. I'm 29 years old. My parents took me to the park at least once a summer when I was a kid. Here is something a lot of people in VA don't know about the SFA story. And again; these are my accounts. 2009 was the last year that Washington Metropolitan area spent money at SFA. They had faithful weekend regulars(Fri, Sat, Sun) from the years of 1999-2009. Why did it stop in 2009? Many people believed that the park would eventually receive a new coaster by 2008 or 2011 by the latest. When we finally did; it was 2012 and it was a small relocated coaster from another SF park. Many long time SFA visitors were upset with this. Such a long wait; and didn't receive anything ground breaking. By 2012, I begin visiting KD on a once a month summer basis. And let me tell you; I saw a lot of people who I use to see at SFA over the past decade. Even a lot of people who I saw from ACE at SFA over the years were now KD-once a month weekend regulars. My buddy was a smoker. In the smoking section; we met people who lived literally a few exits up from my house in Maryland. When they told me the area; I remembered seeing the signs for their exit on 295 countless times. I couldn't believe it. So many people from my region were at HAUNT on packed Saturday nights. At one time, this was SFA's crowd on weekends and Fright Fest back in the 2000-2005, before Dan Snyder took over the company.

 

[Nicole]

I’m sorry, but do you have any data to back your assertions?

 

[MikeLovesKD]

I’m sorry, but do you have any data to back your assertions?

Sorry if the comment was a bit much. I can withdraw it if you need me to. Many of the accounts, were from my various visits to SFA over a 10 year span. Not sure if the old forums; coaster-net and SFA Fanastics still exist. There use to be a lot of information on there regarding guests experiences and visits to the park. Other than that, you would have had to live in the area to know how people felt about the park starting in 2006-2009.

Jonesta6; I wish smart devices existed back in those days. Lord, would I have been able to document so many occasions where I met people from my area at KD. Here's another easier way to explain it. If your ever at KD during the weekends; just get on Drop Tower and look out at I-95 during the night time. Most of the traffic leaving the park is headed north on I-95. The McDonalds in Ruther Glen always has a 40 minute wait time to get food. That's because so many people are headed north on I-95. I've even been to the McDonalds south of KD which, there is one in Ashland and some other place. Those two don't get as busy as the one in Ruther Glen.

Back on topic. It would be very interesting to see how the pandemic numbers effect both chains. KD and Six Flags America battled during the late 90's and early 2000's. If SFA were to receive a big coaster during the pandemic; it could create a few issues for KD. That's based on the assumption that KD remains closed and SFA remains open with increasing capacity. Hopefully the pandemic has ended come time 2021 or 2022. We'll keep our fingers crossed for for the whole DMV region.

 

[Nicole]

Sorry if the comment was a bit much. I can withdraw it if you need me to. Many of the accounts, were from my various visits to SFA over a 10 year span. Not sure if the old forums; coaster-net and SFA Fanastics still exist. There use to be a lot of information on there regarding guests experiences and visits to the park. Other than that, you would have had to live in the area to know how people felt about the park starting in 2006-2009.

I live in NOVA.

 

[horsesboy]

Having lived both in both Nova and now in Williamsburg in want to address a couple of points. One being the McDonald's argument isn't the most informative way to judge who coming and from where. Ashland actually gives someone more food choices RG so you are less likely to wait if the wait is long at McDonald's. More to the point is that even fir me I can be home from KD in a little over 30 minutes where as where as in Nova it was a go 1 and a half to 2 hours to get home. I am less likely to stop for food now then when I was in Nova and a decent amount of the southern crowd are even closer to home meaning they are less likely to stop.

Another point would be people's opinion of SFA from s decade ago isn't all that relevant. My opinion of it about 5 years ago can be found on in this page it was low but that doesn't reflect my current opinion which is that I enjoy it and have a season pass and make the journey up there about 5 or 6 times in a normal year.

 

[Jonesta6]

Still curious what data the park has - doubt they're spending resources on license plate scanning but could probably do a lookup of passholder addresses fairly easily; probably some structured surveying and other things too. Not that that amounts to much with a closed park.

Again, I just want to go ride!

 

[rswashdc]

KD should easily be able to pull up member addresses and billing addresses for daily and group tickets to get a good idea what their customer demographics look like.

For the curious outsider, the best recommendation I can make is to take a look at county tax stickers and license plates for out of staters to get an idea where people are coming from.