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Zachary

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For anyone following along at home, Hanover County is currently experiencing "substantial" COVID-19 spread and, hence, the CDC now calls for indoor masking of everyone (regardless of vaccine status) at Kings Dominion.

New Guidance:

Check County-Level Transmission:
 

Jonesta6

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Feb 14, 2019
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Besides theaters and restaurants, and Boo Blasters, what other venues are they considering as indoors?
 

Zachary

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Shops, restaurants, a couple attractions, and bathrooms are the big ones.
 

horsesboy

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For anyone following along at home, Hanover County is currently experiencing "substantial" COVID-19 spread and, hence, the CDC now calls for indoor masking of everyone (regardless of vaccine status) at Kings Dominion.

New Guidance:

Check County-Level Transmission:
Raw numbers from VDH's Covid Tracker for Hannover County. Reported confirmed or probable cases for yesterday 12. 7 day average of cases 18.
 

Jonesta6

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I'm wondering if the designation comes from not the VDH data but the potential for spread at KD and the concert venue they stuck down the road at the fairgrounds.
 
Nov 30, 2018
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Its based on population, but KDs attendance and employment doesn't get counted in that so the actual percentage is probably much lower in the area, unless a bunch of sick people are visiting KD.
 

Jonesta6

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I'd hope it's a data-based designation, just throwing out there a thought that if it's not it's finding a way to factor areas where crowding occurs as spread zones thus increasing the risk.

If guests were to spread to others but lived outside of Hanover County, then the data wouldn't be attributed to the park or concert venue... But my thought above would theoretically extend the recommendations for high risk areas to these venues via labeling the whole county as high risk in an attempt to reduce spread through crowds.
 
Nov 30, 2018
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I doubt CDC is looking at data beyond census data to determine populations in their calculation. There is no way the CDC could determine every crowd zone. They'd have to consider central business districts, sporting events (think big college football games in small college towns), major medical campuses, etc. and guesstimate how often major events are happening. Just looking at KD alone, the population of Hanover county is about 100k, but KD probably adds 10-20k on an average day and maybe 30-40k on a really busy one. No way the CDC could do that across the entire US.
 

Jonesta6

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I'd like to think the same thing, but how can an area be high risk if the measured amount of risk doesn't seem significantly high?
 
Nov 30, 2018
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I'd like to think the same thing, but how can an area be high risk if the measured amount of risk doesn't seem significantly high?
Maybe a place such as Charlottesville that has a major university and medical center. It's bringing in a lot of students and sick people who might not be captured in the census population which could understate or overstate the risk depending on where the sick are being attributed to. On the flip side a bedroom community such as Prince William or Stafford, VA could overstate the risk if their cases are attributed to their home location since much of the population is spending much of its day in other locations.
 

Nicole

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Jul 22, 2013
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I don't think we as laypeople know what constitutes "significant" increases. Presumably the public health experts have formulas for making those determinations.
 
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Nibbins

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The CDC explains right there on their site what they consider "substantial transmission"

It's either 50-99.99 new cases in 100k persons or 8-9.99% test positivity rate during the past 7 days.

1627491805044.png



Hanover county had 61.24 per 100k cases (which almost doubled in the past 7 days) and is therefore in the "substantial transmission" zone.

1627491930056.png

Test positivity is so far "only" 6.9%.
1627492219062.png


Also, the data is based on where the cases are reported, so if I were to catch COVID at KD it would get reported in Virginia Beach.
On the other hand, Virginia Beach is currently a "High Transmission" zone, so probably I should be wearing a mask at KD, even if Hanover county only had low transmission.
 

horsesboy

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Hanover County just was upgraded to "high transmission" with 101.15 per 100k cases and 9.94% test positivity.
But yet still only 31 new cases per VDH's 10:00 update
 

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Nibbins

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Those must be the daily numbers. 31 new cases in a day out of a population of about 108k.

The latest numbers from the CDC are 127 cases over the past 7 days.

Might not sound like all that much, but that is over 0.1% of the population of Hanover county in a week and the numbers are going up.
 
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