Looks like KD is sending out announcements about the free Season Pass for 2021.
COVID-19 Impacts on Kings Dominion
- Thread starter belsaas
- Start date
At this point it is hard to say what the current world pandemic's effects will be on KD. I have been scratching my head on the fact that Bush Gardens Williamsburg opened and KD remained closed. My question is whether or not; this was a corporate decision or park decision? The numbers that Bush Gardens is bringing in for 2020, can't be any higher than what KD would bring in. If it was a parent company decision; maybe Bush Gardens saw it as an opportunity to make a few Virginian's happy.
I am not certain about the current pandemic cases currently happening in Virginia; so I will ask this in the form of a question. Have the numbers changed since the Governor first approved of theme parks to open? To clarify; has it gotten worst or better? The only reason I ask this is because, the numbers seem to be playing a major role in the Governor's decision to keep the 1,000 occupant capacity the same. If the number's don't change then I can't imagine that it will be any different for 2021. Maybe KD will bite the bullet and open the park, if Bush Gardens continues to bite the bullet for 2021. Two seasons is a long time to consider being closed. Take into account, that Bush Gardens is set to open Pantheon next season.
I am not certain about the current pandemic cases currently happening in Virginia; so I will ask this in the form of a question. Have the numbers changed since the Governor first approved of theme parks to open? To clarify; has it gotten worst or better? The only reason I ask this is because, the numbers seem to be playing a major role in the Governor's decision to keep the 1,000 occupant capacity the same. If the number's don't change then I can't imagine that it will be any different for 2021. Maybe KD will bite the bullet and open the park, if Bush Gardens continues to bite the bullet for 2021. Two seasons is a long time to consider being closed. Take into account, that Bush Gardens is set to open Pantheon next season.
My uneducated guess is that CF didn't see a financial benefit to opening with the capacity limits being imposed, especially with the extra resources needed to properly block off pathways and get rides up and running since that's what they're more or less known for. It doesn't hurt that they don't have the clusterfuck of membership style season passes, so it's really easy for them to just roll all current year passholders to the next though I'm not sure how the books are affected by such a move.
Also, where CF sued Ohio (or at least filed preliminary paperwork or threatened) to get back open, that only happened in OH vs VA because that government wasn't even attempting to be cooperative with any kind of ability to reopen with restrictions like we have here, and that those parks represent a much larger chunk of revenue than KD.
Also, where CF sued Ohio (or at least filed preliminary paperwork or threatened) to get back open, that only happened in OH vs VA because that government wasn't even attempting to be cooperative with any kind of ability to reopen with restrictions like we have here, and that those parks represent a much larger chunk of revenue than KD.
I won't get into the corporate vs local divide, but like @Jonesta6 said, by extending passes through 2021 early on, Cedar Fair removed any real financial incentive to open their parks in 2020. In fact, unless in-park revenues alone ensure profitability, extending passes through 2021 made operating in 2020 at all a financial burden. This is almost certainly why we are seeing some Cedar Fair parks already reclosing for the season.
That's what I expected too. But what is to happen with KD if the pandemic numbers in VA don't change over the next six months?
I've been really listening to a lot of people in the health field. Many of them are beginning to feel that we won't really get through it until everything opens again. This seems a bit reckless, but many of them are beginning to feel this will be longer if we tip toe. There is no clear time frame of a vaccine. Every time we try and open things up; people gather and we hear about more cases. In reality of it all, it could be a very long time if numbers don't get better. How long do you think a company like CF will continue to pay property tax for a business that cannot clearly turn profit due to restrictions? I can't imagine them closing and relocating all the rides; but it possible that if they can't operate next season with state restrictions; the company could seek another buyer for the property. To some, this could be a scary thought because KD has not had a small operator sense the KECO days. Paramount's owned them and then Cedar Fair bought them.
[MAJOR CITATION NEEDED]
I assume this was a typo and you mean that people in the health field are saying that everything can't reopen until we get through this (which is accurate—that is the expert consensus). Once the virus is dealt with, THEN we will be able to address the economic impacts and fallout.
Nothing will be confirmed till it's go time, but there is a lot of professional optimism about having a vaccine ready for wide deployment this winter. The actual period of time the mass vaccination will take is likely a lot longer—but things should start moving in a positive direction once the vaccine is approved.
As for the parks, they're safe for now. Depending on which way November goes, a lot of financial aid could be coming to the travel and amusement industries next year as well. Fingers crossed for that.
A lot of the people in the health field that I have spoken to have mixed emotions about it. Many people who own businesses are beginning to feel the same way. I know; it's weird; but if you own a business; you've just about had it with restrictions. When it comes to a theme park, we have to be very careful. That's understandable. But for the way I see it; KD's future depends on the Governor's decision. If things don't change in November, I don't see him changing his number. My fingers are crossed too.
It's not weird that businesses want to make money, but businesses can't recover without the virus subsiding. Removing restrictions doesn't just return demand to normal. Note the huge lack of demand in places where few restrictions are in place.
KD's future doesn't rely on the governor's decision—it relies on the future arc of the virus. KD can thrive again once the virus is dealt with—the sooner we deal with it, the better off KD will be. Another thing that will help KD: An enormous stimulus that pours money into the economy so that people can still afford to visit the park on the other end of this. Pinching pennies on stimulus is more likely to kill KD than the governor is from my point of view here.
Remember, Dorney is closed—not because they can't operate—they are allowed to—the demand is just gone. Until people aren't scared of getting a deadly virus, parks can't thrive. People will continue to be scared of getting a deadly virus until the risk has been largely irradiated. Hence, fix the virus, then heal the economy. It's the only route out for parks.
KD's future doesn't rely on the governor's decision—it relies on the future arc of the virus. KD can thrive again once the virus is dealt with—the sooner we deal with it, the better off KD will be. Another thing that will help KD: An enormous stimulus that pours money into the economy so that people can still afford to visit the park on the other end of this. Pinching pennies on stimulus is more likely to kill KD than the governor is from my point of view here.
Remember, Dorney is closed—not because they can't operate—they are allowed to—the demand is just gone. Until people aren't scared of getting a deadly virus, parks can't thrive. People will continue to be scared of getting a deadly virus until the risk has been largely irradiated. Hence, fix the virus, then heal the economy. It's the only route out for parks.
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Besides the season passes being extended to 2021, KD kind of benefits from the VA parks being closed relative to BGW. BGW had a lot of investments going in, while KD was reeling a bit and was going to take a beating in 2020 with Pantheon coming online and KD simply working to replace a broken part of its water park. Now Pantheon has to open during a mediocre period at best and KD has their own new ride to market which puts them in a closer competitiveness environment for 2021.
If KD figures out something for 2022/2023 they’ll be in a recovered position going forward.
If KD figures out something for 2022/2023 they’ll be in a recovered position going forward.
I never said that KD wouldn't thrive once it opens. My worry is how long parent theme park companies will hold onto certain properties if the virus numbers don't go down. Six Flags Entertainment hasn't been doing well as a theme park chain at all. They were one of the top rumored parks that would begin selling off properties if the attendance numbers are kept low. Of course we know that Cedar Fair has done much better over the past decade. I haven't been following the stock market for a while; so I don't know what the stocks were like when the company announced that they weren't opening certain properties and doing limited capacity at properties that were open. How long do you think investors will hang on from a realistic standpoint?
A lot of cash that the company gets are from stock investors. If nobody is buying; what is to come of that? Let's just pretend that the states try and open up after November and lift restrictions. Case numbers go up again and then we shut back down? How many times do you think we will limbo before the company calls it quits for a property that is plagued by forever lingering numbers in the state? At that point, is it even worth installing a new attraction at a park that has a very uncanny outlook for opening? In reality; covid numbers could push The Crypt replacement back to 2022 or 2023.
A lot of cash that the company gets are from stock investors. If nobody is buying; what is to come of that? Let's just pretend that the states try and open up after November and lift restrictions. Case numbers go up again and then we shut back down? How many times do you think we will limbo before the company calls it quits for a property that is plagued by forever lingering numbers in the state? At that point, is it even worth installing a new attraction at a park that has a very uncanny outlook for opening? In reality; covid numbers could push The Crypt replacement back to 2022 or 2023.
A park like Kings Dominion with low non-operating overhead, sitting on worthless land, and owned by a massive parent company just simply isn’t at risk in the foreseeable future.
Maybe if the outlook doesn’t improve by late 2021, things might start looking worse, but for now, I’m not seeing a reason to be concerned. No land developer is looking to build a huge housing development in Doswell. No one is plotting an offer Cedar Fair can’t refuse for some former farmland between Richmond and Fredericksburg. Frankly, leveling the park would probably cost a lot more than the land under it is worth—KD just isn’t in danger here.
Maybe if the outlook doesn’t improve by late 2021, things might start looking worse, but for now, I’m not seeing a reason to be concerned. No land developer is looking to build a huge housing development in Doswell. No one is plotting an offer Cedar Fair can’t refuse for some former farmland between Richmond and Fredericksburg. Frankly, leveling the park would probably cost a lot more than the land under it is worth—KD just isn’t in danger here.
Lord knows I was not talking about leveling the park. Lord, that would be a nightmare that I would never forget.
Realistically, what I meant is that parks like Kings Dominion, Carowinds and Canada's Wonderland don't see anything change in the local region. As a result the majority of the 2021 season is suspended. Let's add optimism that the state Governors for North Carolina and Virginia raise the capacity number by early July; but still isn't as favorable where the parks can turn profit. By mid July the parks attempt to open with maybe a 2,200 or 3,500 capacity. In August schools start up and the parks drop in attendance and demand. What is then to come for the Fall and Winter seasons? Could the park's copy Bush Gardens and operate with limited attractions to save on operation cost? Or do they just fold cards again due to lingering pandemic numbers and take a loss for 2021? It's a roll of the dice.
If the Governor would just give the park at least 3,500-4,500; the park could probably operate with limited attractions and still turn profit. Could they operate the water park? Probably not; because it's a big penny. Could they operate with limited attractions; "YES". They've proved this with Winter Fest.
If Hanover was pushing hard for a large tech/industrial site similar to what Chesterfield and/or Henrico have done, you got to admit that it's a little more prime real estate since it's got the infrastructure already in place (may have to reconfigure a bit but power, water, sewer, etc are all there) and it's already in close proximity to the interstate with 2 lanes dedicated to the property on the surface road.
Plus CF can reallocate most rides worth moving to other properties or sell them if it came down to it.
But personally I don't see it happening, worst case scenario to me is that after the 4D FreeSpin we may not get any new anything (perhaps a small amount of landscaping improvements) for many more years if they can't generate the revenue they expect.
Plus CF can reallocate most rides worth moving to other properties or sell them if it came down to it.
But personally I don't see it happening, worst case scenario to me is that after the 4D FreeSpin we may not get any new anything (perhaps a small amount of landscaping improvements) for many more years if they can't generate the revenue they expect.
Well respected; but I'll believe this more when I hear about the Government granting these companies a break on their property tax. When it comes to these things you never know. The Government may say, you've been approved to open; so why should we cut you a break.
I've said this before, but operating with limited attractions might not be a bad idea. The park could start collecting their revenue for season pass holders, because they are technically considered open. I did Winter Fest and still had a blast, so I could only imagine what a limited attraction 2.0 list would feel like during the Summer and Fall seasons. There are numerous Haunted House events still happening, so I'm sure KD could figure it out. Maybe ticket times have to be assigned in order to enter haunted attractions. Preferably, I would rather have it this way; because it seems more personalized. With a limited park capacity; certain attractions may fee more scarier with less crowding. Picture only a few groups being allowed in a maze like Corn Stalkers or No Vacancy. Those are old mazes; but just imagine a more personalized experience.
It's unlikely that local governments can afford the losses that would incur. If you want the parks to see some financial help, hope for a change at the top of the federal government and in the Senate next year—stimulus would go a long way to helping these parks dig out of the holes they find themselves in.
FWIW if you want to see a locality that cuts its two biggest employers a break tax wise look at Bristol Connecticut. ESPN and Otis Elevators don’t pay squat and the town is shit. (I’m allowed to call it out. That shithole is where I was born. ?)
A big issue is CF isn’t really much into RE development. Before the pandemic, I would think an outlet mall or a unique restaurant district (e.g. various open bit BBQ joints or other low overhead operations) would complement the park well.
Now it’s a different story. One area I could see working would be a casino with a hotel and indoor water park if gambling got legalized. CF would have to probably partner with someone on this, but it would be the type of venture that would really extract value in the land they are on.
I think the best way to think about 2021 for a park like Kings Dominion is that they're counting on things being better in March than they are now.
In the case of Virginia, I highly doubt you will see any change in terms of restrictions between now and then: there's little to no incentive to do so, as the issue is with a lack of demand for these services, and obviously the demand for theme parks is not going to change dramatically between now and March with the weather changing. And regardless of what happens on 11/3, and thus what will or will not happen come January on a national level, the state's position is unlikely to change between now and then. So basically the hope is that by the time we reach March, there is a vaccine beginning to be distributed, which would allow for some confidence from both guests and state governments to allow theme parks to reopen at higher capacities for the start of their official seasons.
We can't really speak to the long-term impacts of this situation on any park, because we still don't fully understand the short-term impacts, and a lot can change in six months (as we've learned over the last six months). But as for why KD and BGW went different directions, my sense is that it has a lot to do with SeaWorld's two marquee year-round parks being in Florida where "full speed ahead" was a necessary corporate position, whereas Cedar Fair is more dispersed geographically and didn't have the same pressures to try to open everything in a complex web of different conditions. I also think that Busch's larger membership base may have played a role in believing there was an appetite for park opening. But honestly, it may be as simple as one company wanted to take the risk and the other didn't, and we won't know which was the right call until...we will probably never know, honestly. Lots of counterfactuals at play.
In the case of Virginia, I highly doubt you will see any change in terms of restrictions between now and then: there's little to no incentive to do so, as the issue is with a lack of demand for these services, and obviously the demand for theme parks is not going to change dramatically between now and March with the weather changing. And regardless of what happens on 11/3, and thus what will or will not happen come January on a national level, the state's position is unlikely to change between now and then. So basically the hope is that by the time we reach March, there is a vaccine beginning to be distributed, which would allow for some confidence from both guests and state governments to allow theme parks to reopen at higher capacities for the start of their official seasons.
We can't really speak to the long-term impacts of this situation on any park, because we still don't fully understand the short-term impacts, and a lot can change in six months (as we've learned over the last six months). But as for why KD and BGW went different directions, my sense is that it has a lot to do with SeaWorld's two marquee year-round parks being in Florida where "full speed ahead" was a necessary corporate position, whereas Cedar Fair is more dispersed geographically and didn't have the same pressures to try to open everything in a complex web of different conditions. I also think that Busch's larger membership base may have played a role in believing there was an appetite for park opening. But honestly, it may be as simple as one company wanted to take the risk and the other didn't, and we won't know which was the right call until...we will probably never know, honestly. Lots of counterfactuals at play.
Indoor water park, maybe - I think CF has ownership in a small one of those on the road into CP.
Casinos have actually been legalized as of the last regular general assembly session, but will probably be a few years until any are open - only 5 localities can have a singular casino in them with Richmond being the closest. IMO though, I don't think CF would want that as it'd divert attention from the park and probably draw a different demographic than they're aiming for. Also, if they're not fully operating it they'd probably not get too much revenue out of the deal.