It's gonna take much much more than 6-8 weeks for it to hit this level.
2021 Park Operating Calendar
- Thread starter fugitiveALiEN
- Start date
It's gonna take much much more than 6-8 weeks for it to hit this level.
I'm going to go to KD once my son and I are fully vaccinated. I don't see this having any long-term repercussions on KD. It's still not a normal year to be running an amusement park. We all will just make the best of it. Hopefully next year things will be back to normal.
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The challenge with @rswashdc's thoughts is that there's still a tremendous amount of passholders that got extended from 2020 to 2021 with some having been able to also visit in parts of 2019 since they did a sale for 2020 passes in 2019 that also gave access in 2019.
Therefore, if they put out a good product and have promising coming attractions in 2022, they may be ok even if this year is a wash based on the current limited schedule assuming they don't extend it as others have suggested is possible.
Therefore, if they put out a good product and have promising coming attractions in 2022, they may be ok even if this year is a wash based on the current limited schedule assuming they don't extend it as others have suggested is possible.
Totally agree with both of these comments. I think some folks are dramatically overthinking this decision and are reading a deeper meaning where there isn't any. KD isn't going to get demolished by its competitors by remaining closed for a handful of extra weeks; theme parks simply aren't at the forefront of the minds of the GP like they are for us. A few people might change their mind based on each park's calendar, but for the vast majority of guests I think the decision will make little difference. How many people do we really think are going to permanently abandon ship because the park is closed an extra month or so while the pandemic is still ongoing?
If this were a long-term, permanent decision, that would be different. But the parks are coming out of the worst year in the industry's history, and this year is bound to be almost just as uncertain. Things are still a mess right now. We all know Cedar Fair is very conservative when it comes to risks, so their decision to take it slow with such an uncertain market isn't surprising. We ought to let 2021 run its course, keeping in mind that's it's an unprecedented year that's still filled with uncertainty, and more importantly, keep in mind this is only one year. If CF tries the same thing again in 2022, then there might be some cause for concern.
They should still have the existing pass holders that renewed early, but everyone else is up in the air. For new pass holders, KD is basically non-competitive this year, with those customers going elsewhere.
Besides pass holders, they are also giving up spring break and prospectively a lot of group sales, that over time can be converted to repeat sales or converted to pass holders.
I don’t subscribe to the idea that this will all have some inevitable, long-lasting, detrimental effect on KD—but I do agree with @rswashdc as it pertains to this season. I can see where the removal of the early season is likely to decimate their pass sales hopes for 2021. I just think it’s a really hard case to make to Virginians—yeah, the weather is nice, COVID is in decline, and you’re looking for something exciting to do this spring, but we aren’t going to open till the end of May. See you then! A lot of those folks are going to become BGW or SF members.
And this is fair enough. Conversely I can see some people coming out of vaccination time and seeing both being open and being closed before didn't really matter. As much as people are still doing things, I've still know a lot of people who do little more than grocery shop, work, and stay home.
I don't think that KD is under some existential crisis where they would go out of business or sell off parts of the park, but taking a 20-30% (guesstimate) haircut on revenue one year where you don't need to has real effects on the short and medium term outlook of the business. Instead of being able to reinvest in the business, they are going to be playing catch up the next few years trying to get that business back.
This argument 100% hinges on the assumption that KD (and other parks in the area) would actually make money by opening before May - which we don't know to be true. Just because BGW is, presumably, making money doesn't mean KD would. Every park that is opening is taking some amount of risk, gambling that they'll earn more money by opening than they stand to lose. We could debate about the risk-versus-reward merits, but let's not oversimplify this discussion by assuming that KD is surrendering sure-fire profits and that making a profit is guaranteed.
All of the parks are in the position where they have to almost entirely rebuild their customer base; and this is also true for a lot of other industries. The virus changed a lot of people's perceptions on safety and what activities they did for recreation, so parks aren't front of mind for a lot of customers.
Building a customer base takes sacrificing short term profits and doing a lot of grinding to get customers in the door. BGW has been doing that since last August and it's starting to pay off. They opened despite the capacity restrictions and are doing whatever it takes to rebuild their customer base and get them committed to coming back. HP did the same last summer, opening up with rapid hiring and some ticket specials to get their customer base rebuilt over the summer, and by fall the place was packed again. KD is trying to muddle along and hope that customers simply comes back once they reopen the gates. This strategy has a much lower probability of success, as those in business who put in the work tend to see the reward too.
I 100 percent agree with this especially I Busch cases. The annimals which are obviously not something that the park can simply shut off and turn back on are expending a decent amount of money every day. But I do worry about that season pass percentage that CF relies on quite heavily. What percentage of those are more hard-core park goers that might be experiencing BGW or SFA and looker the value of getting a pass at either instead of a 2022 KD pass? I don't know the answer maybe CF did the market research and has a pretty solid idea I hope so at least.
Especially in this are, the question can somewhat be if they would leave if they are using a higher level pass to also go to other CF regional parks (like Carowinds), would they give that up just because BGW is open.
A lot of people already have 2020 KD or Platinum passes that were extended through 2021. They weren't in the market to buy one and they aren't going to stay away now because they aren't having as long of a season. And people who buy daily tickets aren't going to stay away because the season is shorter either.
Not sure how KD will be forgotten when BGW is still operating under the same restrictions that have been in place since the end of October 2019. Even with two sessions per day for 8000 max; How profitable do you think BGW will be, with the whole park open, for 8000 people in daily attendance?
Will enough people come to the park if they have not been vaccinated? Again, the latest projections now state the vaccine supply will be at a point where most folks, who want one, would be able to get a vaccine in May. Course, it might take a few weeks to have it administered (manpower & supplies like sryinges). You need a couple weeks for your immune system to build up antibodies so you are protected.
That falls in line with the opening of most Cedar Fair parks. I think corporate has a little more insider info than the GP.
My guess, is that Cedar Fair is migitating operating loss by keeping the parks closed until mid-late May. I wager that the VA governor will ease the COVID restrictions again by mid to late May. I don't think restrictions will be totally lifted; but, if they can get 10,000-12,000 folks though the turnstyles per day, then both parks can be somewhat profitable.
Will enough people come to the park if they have not been vaccinated? Again, the latest projections now state the vaccine supply will be at a point where most folks, who want one, would be able to get a vaccine in May. Course, it might take a few weeks to have it administered (manpower & supplies like sryinges). You need a couple weeks for your immune system to build up antibodies so you are protected.
That falls in line with the opening of most Cedar Fair parks. I think corporate has a little more insider info than the GP.
My guess, is that Cedar Fair is migitating operating loss by keeping the parks closed until mid-late May. I wager that the VA governor will ease the COVID restrictions again by mid to late May. I don't think restrictions will be totally lifted; but, if they can get 10,000-12,000 folks though the turnstyles per day, then both parks can be somewhat profitable.
As I said elsewhere, the late start makes sense to me for a variety of reasons. The early closure in the Fall, however, seems weird. It seems very likely that by the time we get to Haunt and Winterfest, life will be much more normal. Obviously, it is easier to extend the calendar than to reduce it, but it still seems like an odd bet to make in light of the current rate of vaccines. Additionally, if they aren't planning for the the events in advance, I have to imagine there will be staffing issues, if nothing else.
Calendar will be extended shortly before/after opening. Haunt and Winterfest are both expected to return as of now.
With all due respect, I doubt that you're qualified to say that you know better than CF's corporate executives, who likely have access to a lot more data and knowledge about the company than you do. It's fair to criticize KD for opening late as a guest - that means we get less value out of our passes and get to enjoy the parks less - but you don't really have enough information to criticize their decisions from a business perspective.