TEA/AECOM Attendance Estimates: BGW

[musicman3204]

I think a slightly important note is to remember that Universal Studios Orlando saw a 10% decrease and IOA saw at least a 11.5% decrease in attendance when comparing 2009 to 2008 season. This came after a 2.5% decrease when comparing 2008 attendance to 2007 at the same parks.

This basically concurs with your statement that the Wizarding World of Harry Potter rendered Universal Orlando recession proof. 2010 when they opened WWHP, IOA saw a 30% increase when comparing 2010 to 2009 while SWO saw a 12% decline.

 

[Zimmy]

I wonder what impact the proposed trade tariffs would have.

One of my professors was on CNN talking about this when it first hit, "If these tariffs actually happen you won't have to worry about interest rates over the next 10 years, they will be the least of our problems."

Yeah, he was not known for overstatement.

So my prediction, nothing good.

 

[Unagi]

I think a slightly important note is to remember that Universal Studios Orlando saw a 10% decrease and IOA saw at least a 11.5% decrease in attendance when comparing 2009 to 2008 season.  This came after a 2.5% decrease when comparing 2008 attendance to 2007 at the same parks.  

You can credit that to the fact that many people put off trips to the Universal Orlando resort once Wizarding World was officially announced in May 2007.  Around that same time WDW had just opened Expedition Everest in 2006 and Nemo The Musical in 2007 at DAK and Toy Story Mania opened in 2008 at DHS. Those were major additions and were the biggest draws at the time. Universal did open the Simpson Ride and Disaster! in 2008 but they weren't big enough attractions to draw visitors away from the mouse during those years.  It also didn't help in 2009 that Universal Studios first major outdoor coaster in Rip Ride Rockit opened way late after the bulk of the summer season.

 

[Unagi]

The 2017 attendance figures are out and it looked pitiful for SEAS as SeaWorld Orlando had a 10% decrease in attendance (-440,000 compared to 2016) and SeaWorld San Diego dropped 13.9% (-500,000 from 2016).  BGT saw a minor 5% drop and for the second year in a row, BGW didn't make the rankings so there is no way to tell how the park fared as far as increases and decreases in attendance went.

For other parks, DAK had the most notable increase at 15.3% (1.6 million) due to the opening of Pandora.  Universal Studios Hollywood saw a huge increase at 12% (almost 1 million more than 2016).  Universal Studios Orlando had a minor increase but they finally went over the 10 million mark in attendance for the first time ever.

Now SEAS did mention a minor increase for the first quarter of this year.  Let's hope they can drastically improve on that trend to help make up for the severe drops in attendance from the year before.

The full 2017 attendance report can be seen here...
(The North American Theme Park rankings are on page 16 out of 40).

http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_268_653730_180517.pdf

 

[whanna]

If I’m not mistaken, a report I read indicates that first quarter 2018 numbers aren’t a direct compare to 2017 due to Easter weekend falling in the quarter this year, but after first quarter last year? So variations in figures aren’t really conclusive. April 16, 2017 vs April 1, 2018.
Would you concur with those thoughts?

 

[tursiops]

Looking at the numbers I'm surprised by Hershey Park. I didn't realize that they had so many more people than BGW. Is there park larger?

 

[warfelg]

Looking at the numbers I'm surprised by Hershey Park.  I didn't realize that they had so many more people than BGW. Is there park larger?

Well few things here:
Hershey is nearly 69 acres. They use every square inch they have.
BGW is 130 acres. They do not use every square inch they have.

HP has it's waterpark inside the park.
BGW has it's waterpark as a second gate.

HP has 13 roller coasters (about to have 14 with a water coaster). Total of 76 rides.
BGW has 8 roller coasters. Total of 54 rides.

HP is open 10am-10pm everyday but Saturday where they are open 10am-11pm.
BGW is open 10am-8pm most summer days and 10am-10pm on weekends.

HP also does "Sweet Starts" for pass holders and resort stays that gives them an extra hour.
BGW as of now doesn't really do that.

So even though HP is smaller, they do more with that they have. I would wonder if you added BGW and WCUSA attendance numbers would actually be closer, because then you come closer to the total number of rides as HP.

 

[tursiops]

I'm guessing based on old BGW info it would surpass. Water Country had over 700k last year. That's assuming BGW is somewhere just below 3 million. Thanks for the info!

 

[Unagi]

Looking at the numbers I'm surprised by Hershey Park.  I didn't realize that they had so many more people than BGW.

It's not a surprise when you consider the proximity of it to the DC/Baltimore area which is pretty much a straight shot up I-83. Every time I've gone from my friend's house in Ellicott City, MD it's taken us 90 minutes or less to drive to Hersheypark. The Philly area is nearby and just a couple hours away straight down I-76. They also do quite a bit of advertising in the NYC metro area as well.

 

[b.mac]

It's not a surprise when you consider the proximity of it to the DC/Baltimore area which is pretty much a straight shot up I-83.  Every time I've gone from my friend's house in Ellicott City, MD it's taken us 90 minutes or less to drive to Hersheypark. The Philly area is nearby and just a couple hours away straight down I-76.  They also do quite a bit of advertising in the NYC metro area as well.

Hershey advertises into the Philly, NYC metro area (stretching into Connecticut), Pittsburgh, and Baltimore/DC metro area. They have their hands in so many pies it is no surprise that they have such a high attendance estimate, and that's why they're looking into expanding because they still haven't come anywhere close to a plateau in growth since they installed Storm Runner.

People say that BGW competes regionally with Kings Dominion and SFA. Hershey competes with all three of them, Dorney, Great Adventure, the NYC metro parks, and Kennywood. They are literally in a perfect market location in today's day and age.

 

[coastagal420]

Good info! (Y)

 

[Thomas]

Totes.