COVID-19 & Coasters: Coronavirus Impacts on the Amusement Industry

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You are assuming people striking rich with unemployment, but they really aren't. Yes, the Federal $600/wk supplement is added until July, but most states only pay out $200-300/wk. They are only making $800-$900 for say three months (April, May, June), then it drops to $200-300/wk. That would be enough to catch up on bills and maybe help pay down some credit cards.

I think it is reasonable to say that Busch Gardens and Kings Dominion will be some of the last places to reopen (as this conversation relates to Virginia). It seems more likely that non-tourist businesses will reopen first.

The point I am trying ton convey is that when things reopen fully (I'm looking more towards July, August, maybe potentially longer) that business is going to be stunted. Unemployment will be back at $200-300/wk. Jobs will naturally be limited because business isn't booming. There are more unemployed people than their are jobs available. This means employers get to be more picky and choosy about who they hire, making it more difficult to get a job. Where as recently, it used to be less unemployed people and many jobs available meaning employers had to compete for the person they wanted.

Think about times past when there was a high unemployment rate, it was difficult to get a job. The stimulus money will only go so far and not last forever. The government just can't keep printing new money and things continue as normal. People will have to eventually get up and fight for whatever job they can get. Over time, things will get better and business will be booming again, but that does not appear to be in our future for another year or more.
 
Assuming the recovery goes the way a couple of other recessions have gone through then sure. But we don't know if more stimulus is coming or not. We don't know how quickly the recovery is going to happen. We. Don't. Know. There's no assumptions going on here. Just relaying what's been said at other points of this thread (and others) as to what might happen.

FWIW the federal $600/wk was for 12 weeks from when you start unemployment, not until July. Also $200-300/wk is underestimating unemployment payments. The average in America is $378/wk, with Mississippi being the lowest at $213 (but play in cost of living and it's not as bad as it sounds).
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/how-much-unemployment-will-i-get-that-depends-on-your-state.html
 
Your continuous efforts to shut down any kind of talk regarding what may happen, and continuous fighting over your viewpoint, suggests that you are either trying to kill the discussion of what may happen (which is a decent discussion to have) or you are not simply satisfied with just simply saying we don't know and then moving onward.
 
Certainly not unexpected, but I wonder what impact this might have on it being delayed vs canceled.
 
It sounds like the first US park to reopen will be an FEC in North Dakota.

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Interesting that this is park is opening. According to this article about ND opening up - "However, the governor noted large music and entertainment venues will not be permitted to open yet because of concerns over the large number of people that would gather in one space."

www.grandforksherald.com

North Dakota officials outline guidelines for reopening businesses

The total number of positive tests for the virus in North Dakota is up to 991, but 409 people have recovered from the illness, including a single-day high of 59 on Tuesday.
www.grandforksherald.com www.grandforksherald.com
 
This is big:
www.dailynews.com

Six Flags rolls out plan for post-coronavirus ‘new normal’

Six Flags CEO Michael Spanos lays out a health and safety plan for when the company’s amusement parks reopen following the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.dailynews.com www.dailynews.com

Some highlights:
  1. Starting with 25% capacity
  2. Face masks and temperature checks are “the new normal”
  3. Massively increasing sanitation (any > none, I suppose ?)
  4. Coached and enforced social distancing across property
  5. Mobile ordering and cashless payments are being expanded
  6. A virtual queue system is being built
  7. Six Flags parks will need between two and three weeks notice to reopen
 
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Zachary said:
This is big:
www.dailynews.com

Six Flags rolls out plan for post-coronavirus ‘new normal’

Six Flags CEO Michael Spanos lays out a health and safety plan for when the company’s amusement parks reopen following the COVID-19 pandemic.
www.dailynews.com www.dailynews.com

Some highlights:
  1. Starting with 25% capacity
  2. Face masks and temperature checks are “the new normal”
  3. Massively increasing sanitation (any > none, I suppose ?)
  4. Coached and enforced social distancing across property
  5. Mobile ordering and cashless payments are being expanded
  6. A virtual queue system is being built
  7. Six Flags parks will need between two and three weeks notice to reopen
Click to expand...
Mid May reopening or soon thereafter
 
If I were any other park I would wait for them to be open. It seems as though from news that SF was in the worse shape going into this. So if SF opens and things go smoothly, there’s your template of how to do it. If they don’t go smoothly you stay closed. Feels as though SF thinks it’s worth the risk between the flattening and their financial situation to do what they can.
 
warfelg said:
If I were any other park I would wait for them to be open. It seems as though from news that SF was in the worse shape going into this. So if SF opens and things go smoothly, there’s your template of how to do it. If they don’t go smoothly you stay closed. Feels as though SF thinks it’s worth the risk between the flattening and their financial situation to do what they can.
Click to expand...
If Six Flags opens, then Cedar Fair, Hersheys, etc. that are within earshot of a Six Flags park need to consider opening. I don't think competitors can sit and wait more than a couple weeks without sales repercussions from being closed.
 
rswashdc said:
If Six Flags opens, then Cedar Fair, Hersheys, etc. that are within earshot of a Six Flags park need to consider opening. I don't think competitors can sit and wait more than a couple weeks without sales repercussions from being closed.
Click to expand...

Sure they should consider it. But we don’t know what the financial repercussions of waiting are. 2 weeks of 25% capacity might lead to a big quarter. Might lead to losses but just not as much. But if I were one of those parks and I felt financially comfortable waiting another month, I’d wait.
 
warfelg said:
Sure they should consider it. But we don’t know what the financial repercussions of waiting are. 2 weeks of 25% capacity might lead to a big quarter. Might lead to losses but just not as much. But if I were one of those parks and I felt financially comfortable waiting another month, I’d wait.
Click to expand...
Hershey's could probably get away with a sit and wait approach, but Cedar Fair almost certainly could not where they are competing against Six Flags regionally.
 
Making decisions right now on being competitive is a mistake. Parks need to do what’s best for them as an individual. If CF feels like they can financially wait a week or two and see if what Six Flags did works, then they should IMO.

EDIT:
And this is my personal feeling about it, but if these decisions are made on a business level or “we can’t let them get a leg up”, it could make a chain feel like they should go for 30% capacity as opposed to 25%, and possibly could lead to some issues in that regard.

The point being, if chains feel confident enough in their financials to wait and see if what Six Flags does work, maybe they should. Given how much spending is down and poll indications of low likeliness of doing large scale recreational activities, I don’t feel like it’s going to be that big of an advantage being open.

Also, and aside, this shows that Six Flags feels like they can make a profit at 25% capacity with all the extra precautions they need. Maybe that’s a good thing that the “break even” threshold is lower than I anticipated.
 
I'm not sure any of the pure parks companies (SEAS, Six Flags, Cedar Fair, etc.) can go long without revenue coming in, and we've seen the bigger ones all issue new debt just to pay current bills. Disney/Universal/Hershey have other major streams of income and can be more deliberate in their actions to reopen.

My gut is that first movers in getting open may pull members from other parks just by getting them to step in the park. The orange county beach crowds shows there's a demand for activities and my anecdotal view of golf courses which remained open are they are much busier than normal since they are pulling golfers from closed courses. A week or two difference may not make much difference, but I don't think the regional parks can sit out for months without losing some of their customer base - e.g. if KD opens in May at 25 or 50% capacity and BGW waits until mid or late summer, you could see a lot of the Hampton Roads area take the trek to KD and end up buying season passes there.
 
In last night's ACE Mid Atlantic online meetup it was mentioned that Joylnd has announced plans to open May 18th. Their Facebook page confirms this.
 
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warfelg said:
Making decisions right now on being competitive is a mistake. Parks need to do what’s best for them as an individual. If CF feels like they can financially wait a week or two and see if what Six Flags did works, then they should IMO.

EDIT:
And this is my personal feeling about it, but if these decisions are made on a business level or “we can’t let them get a leg up”, it could make a chain feel like they should go for 30% capacity as opposed to 25%, and possibly could lead to some issues in that regard.

The point being, if chains feel confident enough in their financials to wait and see if what Six Flags does work, maybe they should. Given how much spending is down and poll indications of low likeliness of doing large scale recreational activities, I don’t feel like it’s going to be that big of an advantage being open.

Also, and aside, this shows that Six Flags feels like they can make a profit at 25% capacity with all the extra precautions they need. Maybe that’s a good thing that the “break even” threshold is lower than I anticipated.
Click to expand...

I think you're misrepresenting the name of the game. A publicly owned business's goal isn't to "feel confident enough in their financials" and wait out as long as they can without going bankrupt. As long as a company is closed, they're not earning profit, and so they're failing at their one goal. I think even the most risk-averse companies at this point are going to be chomping at the bit to get any amount of revenue flowing as soon as they safely can.
 
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