I don't know why Herschend, or anyone else, would
want Kings Dominion.
Kings Dominion is a park that has long faced major headwinds. Staffing is incredibly difficult since the base of locals to pull from in Doswell is basically non-existent, its nearest city is fought over heavily by a very strong, nearly equal-distant competitor, its land is worthless, it failed to manage year round operations, and its water park can't be separated into a separate gate without an incredibly significant infrastructure investment. And remember, Herschend, at their scale, is locked out of many of the chain-level cost optimizations that Cedar Fair currently employs. A Kings Dominion under Herschend would immediately be more expensive to run than a Kings Dominion under Cedar Fair—meaning the path to profitability is steeper under Herschend than Cedar Fair.
Obviously, if the new Six Flags is on the ropes and trying to offload parks fast, maybe they're offering some great deals—but, presumably, they have a lot of levers to pull before resorting to a move like firesale-ing Kings Dominion (read: off-load old Six Flags management contract parks, dumping portions of unused land at some of their larger properties, selling the land under SFA, Dorney, and/or a Schlitterbahn or two, etc). If new SF gets to the point of providing deep discounts on the likes of Kings Dominion, I think something will have had to have gone very, very wrong. Not impossible, but I don't think it's probable.
Almost any park operator would likely be interested in a
great deal for a park like Kings Dominion, but the world in which
great deal would be offered seems unlikely. Maybe new Six Flags could be open to a
not bad deal without the company having to face major, imminent issues. I think that, in order to justify taking a
not bad deal for the property, an operator would have to be particularly enthused by the prospect of running Kings Dominion—presumably because they've identified ways in which the property could be under leveraged by current management. Unfortunately, I don't think there's another operator out there currently salivating over the thought of managing Kings Dominion. I honestly don't think the property's path to
notably greater returns than are currently realized (and, hence, would already be baked into a sale price) is clear at all. Most all of the normal ways chains would try to improve a parks' revenue (cap-ex, marketing/ticketing improvements, seasonal events, operating calendar extension, splitting the property into multiple gates, implementing onsite lodging, etc) have already been implemented, tried, or considered for Kings Dominion. I'm just not convinced that there's significant meat left on the bone for any other park chain to be super enthusiastic about the property.
Okay, well, on second thought, I take that last bit back. There is one major theme park operator who is absolutely salivating over the dream of getting their grimy little hands around Kings Dominion's neck. That is the
absolute nightmare scenario though. In fact, perhaps that's the best reason to hope Kings Dominion, as a single park, never goes on the market. There is probably an enthused bidder waiting at the door to whom Kings Dominion would represent a uniquely significant investment opportunity—but I assure you, it's not the kind of investment into Kings Dominion that anyone—sans SEAS shareholders—is looking for.
Basically, to put it more succinctly, most any chain would pick up a great deal on any park. New Six Flags probably isn't going to be far enough up a creek to offer great deals though. For someone to offer a solid enough deal for new Six Flags to sell ammo to their enemy, it would likely require an operator who sees a path to very significant upside. It's unclear what that potential vision could look like, but it would likely take a lot for the upside to match the existing and innate value in the transaction for SEAS.
Lastly, I'll add this footnote. I'm one of a relatively small number of thoosies who has actually been to a non-flagship Herschend property (Wild Adventures). I do certainly believe Herschend is one of the best operators in the business and I've enjoyed every one of my visits to their properties. That said, Herschend ownership doesn't just magically turn parks into Dollywood or Silver Dollar City. Both of those properties are long-established pillars of their respective, existing tourism hotspots with extra elements that make them especially compelling (Dolly for DW, the Cave for SDC, the locally-relevant craftsmen and historic, coal fired trains at both parks, etc). If Herschend did end up with scraps from this merger, I assure you that those new Herschend parks would look and behave a whole lot more like Wild Adventures or Kentucky Kingdom than one of the two beloved Herschend flagships.