A lot of the markets Cedar Fair and Six Flags operate in are distinct from one another which reduces the potential friction of a merger. There are markets where there could be a lot of issues though. Looking through some maps (each chains' properties, population density, highways, etc), the following conflicts spring to mind:
Carowinds & Six Flags Over Georgia are about 4 hours apart and both have their own major, growing metro areas. Neither should really have a notable impact on the other, but they seem worth mentioning because they're a pair of major parks in their respective chains that aren't really that far apart.
Six Flags St. Louis & Worlds of Fun are also about 4 hours apart and they both, also, serve their own metros. Joint ownership of both of these properties certainly reduces competition in Missouri and probably incentivizes a combined SF & CF chain against massively investing in either, but both parks should be able to coexist just fine as small, regional amusement parks. And hey, at least Silver Dollar City still exists to offer the state some competition?
Overall, in a Six Flags and Cedar Fair merger scenario, I think the markets to watch are Philadelphia and DC. NorCal would be on that list too, but that battle is already basically lost. As someone with a real soft spot for Dorney, I'm scared for its long-term prognosis in a post-merger world. As a Virginian, the Kings Dominion/Six Flags America situation looks really undesirable too. I don't see a world where both properties can coexist long-term as major amusement parks. Seems like one is likely to be relegated to neglect or, worse, shuttered eventually.
Dorney Park/Six Flags Great Adventure
Dorney Park and Six Flags America are less than 100 miles apart via highways and both compete heavily in the Philadelphia market. Dorney Park is one of Cedar Fair's smallest parks and Six Flags Great Adventure is one of Six Flags' flagships. Both parks are well outside of Philly so neither has a great property advantage there; however, Six Flags Great Adventure is far better positioned to pull from the NYC metro area. Dorney Park has long struggled to make a name for itself in its very crowded market against the likes of HersheyPark and Great Adventure and sits on a relatively small, difficult plot of land. Six Flags Great Adventure, on the other hand, has a long history of roaring success. This looks like a mighty tense situation long-term for Dorney.Kings Dominion/Six Flags America
Echoing the previous situation, Kings Dominion and Six Flags America are also less than 100 miles apart via I-95 and both pull heavily from the DMV region. Kings Dominion is a large, mid-tier Cedar Fair park while Six Flags America is a large, low-to-mid-tier Six Flags property. Six Flags America is positioned beautifully in the DMV suburbs on the Baltimore side of the city. Kings Dominion, on the other hand, is located in rural Virginia north of Richmond and well south of DC. Six Flags America's location makes it a potentially tremendously valuable park just as it relates to the Washington DC metro area but, when you toss Baltimore in there too, it's probably one of the best-positioned parks in the country. Kings Dominion's market nets it Richmond and Fredericksburg, but both cities are dwarfed by the duo of markets up north and, worse yet, the RVA area is a heavily contested market with Busch Gardens Williamsburg also fighting hard for it. This seems like another situation where I think only one of these parks could be reasonably expected to thrive long-term under the same management. KD is the obviously better park right now, but SFA sits atop the obviously better property. Kings Dominion seems to face much stiffer external headwinds while SFA's issues seem rooted solely in their own history of incompetence. This is a rough one. Do you invest in the stable, solidly good park with a lower market ceiling on worthless land, or do you invest in the rundown park with an awful reputation and a much higher potential return on investment that's sitting on a property goldmine?California's Great America/Six Flags Discovery Kingdom
No need to spend long here. Cedar Fair has already largely surrendered CGA's future. A merger like this would certainly seal that deal though. RIP GCA.Knotts Berry Farm/Six Flags Magic Mountain
Unlike the previous conflicts, I think the SoCal market can very happily support both Knotts and Magic Mountain (and has been for many years). Both parks cater to different segments of the audience and could actually see a lot of added success paired up against the likes of Disney and Universal in my opinion. Easy for Knotts to lean into its strengths as a family theme park and for Magic Mountain to continue to be the Cedar Point of the west coast.Houston & San Antonio Water Parks
Both Six Flags and Cedar Fair operate water parks in both the Houston and San Antonio markets. Once again, more than likely, both metros can support both of their respective water parks. Seems likely that you'd see unequal investment and could imagine that, long into the future, consolidation could rear its ugly head. That said, I don't think these situations are particularly dire. If you're a massive Schlitterbahn fan, it's probably good to be scared, but I think a lot of the pain will come from the reduction in competition long before any of these properties actually could potentially bite the dust.Near Misses
Aside from the properties listed above, I believe the next closest overlap is between Canada's Wonderland & Six Flags Darien Lake at about 140 miles apart. The saving grace here is, of course, that an international border separates these two properties. It also helps that they seem to pull from largely or even entirely separate markets. Right now, Canada's Wonderland is massively successful while Darien Lake is not. I'd imagine the status quo would continue with both parks continuing on their current trajectories (Wonderland expanding, Darien rotting on the vine).Carowinds & Six Flags Over Georgia are about 4 hours apart and both have their own major, growing metro areas. Neither should really have a notable impact on the other, but they seem worth mentioning because they're a pair of major parks in their respective chains that aren't really that far apart.
Six Flags St. Louis & Worlds of Fun are also about 4 hours apart and they both, also, serve their own metros. Joint ownership of both of these properties certainly reduces competition in Missouri and probably incentivizes a combined SF & CF chain against massively investing in either, but both parks should be able to coexist just fine as small, regional amusement parks. And hey, at least Silver Dollar City still exists to offer the state some competition?
Overall, in a Six Flags and Cedar Fair merger scenario, I think the markets to watch are Philadelphia and DC. NorCal would be on that list too, but that battle is already basically lost. As someone with a real soft spot for Dorney, I'm scared for its long-term prognosis in a post-merger world. As a Virginian, the Kings Dominion/Six Flags America situation looks really undesirable too. I don't see a world where both properties can coexist long-term as major amusement parks. Seems like one is likely to be relegated to neglect or, worse, shuttered eventually.
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