Over the past few years Disney has been increasing the number of events with a high price tag as well as increasing the price of just about everything in a attempt by pricing things higher or having high priced upcharge event will lower crowds or make events that have low crowd levels. But in the end they are raising prices and people are lining up at the door to but those eventsand they are selling out. You want to book a room in December...good luck unless your looking for a deluxe resort.
I tend to agree. Disney seems to have a fairly inelastic demand curve. People will complain, but ultimately, SWO, Uni, etc tend to be side trips for many Disney guests.
I also am not convinced that people who are priced out of the market by Disney are more likely to go to SWO than Uni. Especially with Harry Potter and all of their other movie-based IP, Uni offers experiences that are more attractive to many people.
i will say I see way more bookings for people that have a resort stay at WDW for a week or so that will do a day trip to UO or SWO. I have never booked anyone at a UOR and had them do a day trip to WDW. Even for SWGE opening wa are staying at WDW and day tripping to UOR for HHN. I have seen a large number of bloggers and vloggers syaing that they will not renew....yet they are the same ones that will pay unbelieveable prices for a event just to write about it.
I'm in a number of Disney passholder groups and the ones that seem the most serious about cancelling their passes already have uni passes and have said that they are considering a BG/SeaWorld pass now.
The other thing to remember that the big price increase was really to people who are not from Florida and to the Florida resident Platinum passes. If they cancel their Disney passes then it's unlikely they will be moving to a different park in Orlando. I think it's more likely that people will downgrade to a different tier pass instead of keeping their current tier if they are concerned about the price hike. Some of the lower tier passes didn't even have a price change.
All this is to say that while I think it's possible that the SeaWorld and Uni get an uptick the people most likely priced out of their passes are not Florida residents.
The reason for the lower tier passes not getting the price hike is they arent getting the preview so there no incentive for anyone to buy those passes right now. For me in a non Florida resident and have held passes since the 90s. We currently have the platinum and have had the premier as well. Even with this hike for us its still cheaper then buying tickets for each trip seperately. This dosent even consider any additional savings for merchandise or dining discounts or any room discounts.