In the wake of the Six Flags Q3 earnings call, I know a lot of people are probably engaged in similar mental exercises, but I wanted to put mine out there on the record. I'm going to categorize all the Six Flags properties by the categories provided by the IUCN Red List for threatened animal species. The categories are as follows:
And now, the properties:
I'd be super curious to know where other people stand on this analysis and see what other people's lists look like. I'm no expert and I'm sure there are dozens of angles for each and every one of the parks above that I've failed to adequately consider so definitely speak up if you have thoughts!
- Extinct (EX) – There are no known living individuals
- Extinct in the Wild (EW) – Known only to survive in captivity, or as a naturalized population outside its historic range
- Critically Endangered (CR) – Highest risk of extinction in the wild
- Endangered (EN) – Higher risk of extinction in the wild
- Vulnerable (VU) – High risk of extinction in the wild
- Near Threatened (NT) – Likely to become endangered in the near future
- Conservation Dependent (CD) – Low risk; is conserved to prevent being near threatened, certain events may lead it to being a higher risk level
- Least Concern (LC) – Very low risk; does not qualify for a higher risk category and not likely to be threatened in the near future. Widespread and abundant taxa are included in this category.
- Data Deficient (DD) – Not enough data to make an assessment of its risk of extinction
- Not Evaluated (NE) – Has not yet been evaluated against the criteria.
And now, the properties:
California's Great America
- Extinct in the Wild
- This is a dead park walking. It only exist today because it's on active life support. I don't know when exactly Six Flags is going to pull the plug, but it's hella doomed. RIP.
Canada's Wonderland
- Least Concern
- This is an easy LC. From what I can gather, the park is wildly successful. As Canadian tourism to the United States likely continues to decline in the immediate term, Canada's Wonderland only stands to gain more of a foothold too. This is a park that has been on a meteoric rise for years and, following what appears to be the booming success of AlpenFury, the hype train doesn't show any signs of slowing anytime soon.
Carowinds
- Least Concern
- This could legitimately be the new Cedar Point. The company headquarters is here now, it has onsite lodging, it has a water park with a separate entrance, the cap-ex keeps rolling in, the park has been very effectively pushed up-market, and the chain seems very happy with the performance. The Carolinas are booming (7th and 8th fastest growing states last year) and Carowinds maintains a healthy market monopoly over both. It would take an industry-ending earthquake to shake this park if you ask me. Like CW, this is an easy LC.
Castaway Bay
- Data Deficient
- I don't feel qualified to give this property a real classification as I honestly know very little about it. Given that it's in Cedar Point's sphere of influence (an indoor waterpark located at one of Cedar Point's resorts), I assume it's probably very safe, but I just don't know enough about the economics of the hotel this indoor water park is part of to say that for sure.
Cedar Point
- Least Concern
- In a surprise to no one, America's Roller Coast is safe. This is the chain's only true destination park right now and I can't fathom anything that would change that anytime soon.
DorneyPark
- Critically Endangered
- Sorry Dorney fans. I like the park too, but I really believe the writing is all over the wall in huge letters and neon paint. I was doomsaying about two parks from the moment the merger was first rumored: Six Flags America and Dorney. Especially after the statements made during the recent Q3 investor call, I simply don't see how Dorney isn't at a tremendously high risk of being demolished in the next decade. The park is super historic, houses one of the oldest operating coasters in the country, and, by all accounts, is currently healthy. Unfortunately, in my estimation, it fits precisely into the description provided on the earnings call today of "little mini cash cows [...] that do not require a lot of capital, generate a nice amount of EBITDA and throw off cash flow." If that were its only risk factor, I'd be giving it a Vulnerable or Endangered ranking though. The reason it ends up all the way up at Critically Endangered is that it has multiple comorbidities that, in a vacuum, may have already been eventual death sentences but, when taken together, make me very skeptical of the continued existence of DorneyPark—even in the relatively short term. First, it's on what is likely quite valuable land smack dab in the middle of the Allentown suburbs. Second, it's in a HIGHLY competitive market with multiple major parks nearby. Third, its nearest major metro is Philadelphia—one of the primary target markets for Six Flags Great Adventure. I'm sorry guys, but I think this park is in a lot of trouble. Oh, and because a successful Dorney is a direct threat to Six Flags Great Adventure, Six Flags won't sell this property to a park operator—it'll just get the bulldozer. I know this is grim, but I really do believe this property is in dire, dire straights.
Frontier City
- Conservation Dependent
- This one is likely to surprise many as Frontier City is a very common focus for doomsayers. People see a minor park that justifies little to no investment three hours from Six Flags Over Texas and conclude it's an easy cut. Here's the rub though: this is the first of a good handful of ~ management contract ~ parks. What that very likely means in practice is that, unlike closing parks under traditional, direct ownership structures, there's likely very little capital to be raised by offloading these management contract properties. Worse for Six Flags, if they pull out of one of these management contracts, say, about 3 hours away from one of their other properties, they've opened themselves up to competition as Six Flags cannot simply opt to shutdown these parks like they can their directly-owned locations—pulling out of the management contract only opens the door for a new management company to come in and run it instead. I'm listing Frontier City (and, spoiler, likely any other parks with a similar management situation) as Conservation Dependent as I believe offloading these parks wouldn't likely be a straight financial decision (as it would likely be a pretty financially-neutral move) but, instead, a corporate focus and broad portfolio strategy question. In other words, it's hard to imagine market pressures pushing the chain into abandoning these properties—and hence, I think their futures are much harder to predict than the core, directly-owned parks. The good news is that if Six Flags did elect to pull-out, EPR, the park's actual owners, would likely just find a new (possibly better) contractor to manage this park—and the same is likely true for most/all the other management contract situations as well.
Hurricane Harbor Concord
- Conservation Dependent
- This is another management contract property—again owned by EPR. Given its proximity to Six Flags Discovery Kingdom, Six Flags is likely very motivated to operate this park as long as it continues to exist, but again, if the corporate decision is made to laser focus on only wholly owned properties, it's not impossible that they could exit their position in this waterpark. CD rating for the same reasons as above, basically.
Hurricane Harbor Oaxtepec
- Not Evaluated
- This is a wholly Six Flags owned water park near Six Flags Mexico. I don't know anywhere near enough about Six Flags' Mexican operations to make any sort of even rough estimate of their status in the chain and, hence, will not be evaluating them.
Hurricane Harbor Oklahoma City
- Conservation Dependent
- Like the nearby Frontier City, this is another EPR park Six Flags manages. For the same reasons as Frontier City, this gets a Conservation Dependent.
Hurricane Harbor Phoenix
- Conservation Dependent
- Yet another EPR park that Six Flags runs. If Six Flags wants to experiment with offloading management contracts, this would be a mighty good candidate as it is the most remote of the management contract parks. Water park competition in Phoenix would mean nothing to Six Flags as a chain. Still gets the same Conservation Dependent as I do still believe it's a question of corporate focus and philosophy, not a financial decision.
Hurricane Harbor Rockford
- Conservation Dependent
- Here's a fun one. Hurricane Harbor Rockford is a management contract water park, but it's owned by a local, municipal park service. Given how close this property is to Six Flags Great America, the fact that it's a one-off partnership, and the fact that said park service would almost certainly replace Six Flags with another, competing operator if Six Flags were to pull out, I think this is one of the safest management contract parks in the chain. Still Conservation Dependent as Six Flags could just decide they don't want to expend any resources on parks they don't own outright, but I feel pretty positive overall about this property's future in the chain.
Hurricane Harbor Splashtown
- Conservation Dependent
- Stop me if you've heard this before. This is a management contract parks owned by EPR. It's in a hot Six Flags region (Texas), but it's also sorta remote. Regardless, it's a management contract so Conservation Dependent.
Kings Dominion
- Near Threatened
- Remember, "Near Threatened" sounds worse than it is. It's not actually a category of threatened species—it's just also not a situation where we should have no concern (Least Concern). Kings Dominion has very fringe market overlap with Carowinds (not a concern) and competes heavily with Busch Gardens Williamsburg (bigger concern). The park also recently lost its Christmas event (concerning) and failed to launch an upcharge for their Halloween event (spooky). Six Flags is already attempting to sell off land in Doswell which could be a harbinger of bad news, but hopefully not. Thankfully, Kings Dominion manages to sustain one of the highest-priced passes in the chain, it was one of the first prestige pass parks, and it was recently identified by Six Flags (Q2 earnings) as one of five overperforming legacy Cedar Fair parks over the summer (alongside the previous-mentioned Cedar Point and Canada's Wonderland). The chain also just killed Six Flags America—partially to reduce Kings Dominion's competition in the massive, relatively non-competitive DC-area market. If a pattern of investments doesn't pay off things could change, but for now, Kings Dominion is feeling a lot safer than when the merger was first announced in my opinion.
Kings Island
- Least Concern
- Speaking of legacy Cedar Fair parks recently identified as overperforming, here's another of the five. This is a rock-solid, dependable, major park for Six Flags with a long history of responding well to Cap-Ex. Zero concerns re: Kings Island in my book.
Knott's Berry Farm
- Least Concern
- Rounding out that list of five overperforming legacy Cedar Fair parks is Knott's. This is as close as Six Flags gets to Disneyland (figuratively and literally) and I'm confident it will long have a place in their portfolio. Easy Least Concern.
La Ronde
- Conservation Dependent
- Everyone wants to pretend like Six Flags should shutter Le Ronde, but there's a problem. Six Flags doesn't own the land here—it's land leased from the city of Montréal. All signs point to La Ronde being profitable and, given that there's no underlying asset to cash out, Six Flags seems to gain very little from leaving the city. Though not direct geographic competitors, in some perverse way, Canada's Wonderland does likely benefit from La Ronde's poor state though—CW's status as the premier Canadian amusement park remains completely unchallenged. If a different park operator came in and actually offered a great park on the La Ronde site (a possibility since Six Flags can't determine the future of the property if they were to exit), it could put some undesirable market pressure on CW. At the end of the day, given the minimal upside, I, again, think this just comes down to a corporate focus and philosophy question and, hence, Conservation Dependent.
Michigan’s Adventure
- Endangered
- Yikes. Like Dorney, this is a quintessential "little mini cash cow." Given the pattern of essentially zero investment over the recent decade, it seems clear that Cedar Fair believed this park has already reached its easy-to-achieve ceiling. In the current chain, that alone is sounding like it could be a death sentence. Sadly, the next closest major parks are other Six Flags properties too so the chain likely wouldn't lose much of anything to competitors by flattening this property either. I don't think the straights are quite as immediately dire as they are for Dorney (as the market shared with MA and other Six Flags properties is far more fringe), but vibes are still not great here in my opinion.
Schlitterbahn Galveston
- Critically Endangered
- Another wholly-Six-Flags-owned, obvious "little mini cash cow," but this one can likely be sold for some real cash as an operational park. A water park in Galveston in a competitors' hands doesn't threaten any of Six Flags' other Texas operations. It's a rare opportunity to cleanly exit a park while selling the property with all of its assets intact. I'll be surprised if, given what the chain said in the Q3 call, they don't capitalize on this asset to pay down debt sooner rather than later.
Schlitterbahn New Braunfels
- Critically Endangered
- Easiest Critically Endangered call on this list. This park directly competes with Fiesta Texas' on-site water park. It's wholly owned by Six Flags, sits on land ripe for suburban development, has almost certainly already reached its market ceiling with minimal future expansion/capitalization opportunities, and it's yet another "little mini cash cow" that the chain almost certainly doesn't have any interest in supporting long-term. This is the Six Flags America of the chain's water parks. Can't imagine it surviving the likely coming purge.
Six Flags America
- Extinct
- RIP
Six Flags Darien Lake
- Conservation Dependent
- This is another popular "just get rid of that one!" target that likely makes absolutely zero financial sense in reality. This is another management contract dry park like Frontier City. Like Frontier City, it is also an EPR property that's located about three hours from a major investment focus for Six Flags—in this case, Canada's Wonderland. I have the same things broadly to say about this park as Frontier City, but this one seems a little more potent to me as Darien Lake likely has the land and market to be much bigger and better than it is and, from Six Flags' point of view, in the wrong hands with the wrong strategy, this property could legitimately put a little, fringe market pressure on Canada's Wonderland. Broadly I don't think it makes much sense to dump these management contracts for financial reasons, but this one in particular seems particularly well-suited to stay in the fold.
Six Flags Discovery Kingdom
- Near Threatened
- This is an easy Near Threatened to me. In the immediate term, there's little cause for concern, but longer-term, if investments start missing, the line looks like its hit a ceiling, or even if the development environment worsens for this property, it's feasible to imagine this park dropping to non-core pretty quickly. For now though, this is the Kings Dominion of the West Coast. California's Great America is in line to be expeditiously executed, in part, for the benefit this park. I expect the chain to run some cap-ex experiments here in the not too distant future to test the market—particularly following the actual closure of CGA. The Bay Area is a huge, wealthy, largely uncontested market which should, in theory, place SFDK on similar footing as Least Concern parks like Carowinds, Six Flags Over Georgia (whoops—spoiler), etc. but I think the realities of SFDK in particular make its footing far less sure. The park's property is tiny, awkward, and fully built-out. It's largely surrounded by relatively dense, single family housing. The property is likely quite valuable. Building in California is difficult broadly, but in a location like this, it's way harder. This is partially an animal park with dolphins in California—in its current state, it sounds all sorts of brand risk alarm bells. If this park doesn't perform WELL after CGA is shuttered, there are very good reasons to be quite concerned about this park's future in my opinion. For now though, Near Threatened. Fingers crossed for its post-CGA success—hopefully replacing a lot of animal exhibits with more significant, traditional, less-brand-risky, attraction investments. Because this park is so remote for the chain though, if Six Flags did decide to unload it, I could see it selling to another park operator. United Parks? I could see it.
Six Flags Fiesta Texas
- Least Concern
- There have been a lot of depressing evaluations in a row up above, so it's nice to finally get to another Least Concern. This park shares a market with the world's worst SeaWorld which is a bit of a strike against the property, but that is HEAVY outweighed by the booming Texas market and the seemingly endless plot armor provided to this park in particular by whatever incredible pile of blackmail Jeffrey Siebert has compiled on Six Flags corporate leadership. I kid, but even during the leanest of recent Six Flags years, this park apparently not only justified ride hardware investments, but also significant thematic and guest experience cap-ex that was basically completely alien to the chain at the time. This was also the first of four legacy Six Flags parks to be named in the Q2 call as an overperformer this summer. As long as the deal Siebert made with the devil to turn this park into an absolute rocketship doesn't have a sudden expiration date in the form of, say, all of the canyon walls collapsing 50 years later, this is an easy Least Concern.
Six Flags Great Adventure
Least ConcernNear Threatened- This should be an easy Least Concern—it's an enormous property, the land likely isn't worth much without the park, development seems super easy, it pulls from two absolutely gigantic metros, and the park has a long legacy of enormous amounts of success. Despite all of this, there seems to be something weird about how both legacy Six Flags and current Six Flags have treated the property over the recent years. I don't know what management has seen that makes them seem so incredibly weary of making the SIGNIFICANT investments this park seems to justify in my mind, but it makes me really squeamish to project confidence re: its future in the chain. Because of the pattern of, to me, inexplicable behavior this park has endured, it's getting a Near Threatened. It's also a park with a major animal component which certainly concerns me brand-safety-wise as well. If I were a park operator today, I'd be rehoming animals by the truckload. Maybe it makes sense to rehome the entire park instead though...? Definitely a park to watch closely in my opinion—particularly if this upcoming strata shuttle spinner doesn't pay off in spades.
Six Flags Great America
- Least Concern
- This is the second of the legacy Six Flags properties that Six Flags identified as an overperformer in the Q2 call. It has long seemed to justify a lot of investment, and new Six Flags keeps signaling that they believe that strategy remains justified. It's a park with great, Marriott-designed bones positioned in such a way as to maintain nearly uncontested control over Chicago, Milwaukee, and even reaching over into Madison and the like with only minor players creeping in around the extreme outer edges of the market. Look for this park to continue to be a rising star in the chain.
Six Flags Great Escape
- Vulnerable
- This is another, very obvious "little mini cash cow." Of our little cow friends though, this is probably one of the safest in my estimation. Its saving grace? It has it's own resort turning Great Escape into a sorta mini destination park. Assuming the numbers aren't bad, I think this is the type of "little mini cash cow" that the chain would likely want to hang onto if reasonable. I definitely think it's at risk if the chain becomes particularly cut-hungry, but I think other dominoes would definitely fall first unless Six Flags specifically received a crazy offer they couldn't refuse for the park.
Six Flags Magic Mountain
- Least Concern
- This is the third of four legacy Six Flags properties the chain stated were overperforming in Q2—and that is despite what I'd call many years of very obvious neglect. Assuming cap-ex performs well in the decade ahead and Six Flags is able to turn Magic Mountain into the Cedar Point of the west coast (as it has long pretended to be), I think the future here is very bright—and I think Six Flags agrees.
Six Flags Mexico
- Not Evaluated
- As with Six Flags' Mexican water park, I'm giving this an NE because I simply know next to nothing about Six Flags' Mexican operations.
Six Flags New England
- Least Concern
- I've seen some skepticism about New England, but I honestly don't know why. It's not the biggest park, it's not the flashiest park, but it seems to me like the ceiling here is likely quite high. It's a park with a number of tiny competitors in its sphere of influence, but it is very obviously the dominant player. I don't have any reason to believe the land is particularly valuable, the park seems successful, and it does pull from a lengthy list of medium-sized cities in the region. This park isn't going to boom like Six Flags Great America or Over Georgia, but it seems more stable than the likes of Discovery Kingdom, Kings Dominion, and somehow Great Adventure to me. Open to counterarguments, but I'm not concerned about this one right now.
Six Flags Over Georgia
- Least Concern
- I've already spoiled this one multiple times in this post, but this is an easy, crystal clear, Least Concern to me. Outside of some fringe competition with Dollywood and Carowinds, this park possesses nearly unchallenged dominance throughout the vast majority of its full sphere of regional influence. Its home, Atlanta, is a huge, uncontested boomtown (no, Fun Spot doesn't count). Six Flags has just recently moved to buy the park's other shareholders out of the property so, soon, this future flagship will be entirely under Six Flags' direct control. I firmly believe this park was one of the primary targets that were driving motivators behind this merger. Post-merger, this is also the fourth of the four legacy Six Flags properties that was identified as a Q2 overperformer this summer. This park has some reputational issues rooted in many, many years of atrocious management and bad press resulting from a pattern of safety issues, but I could have said the same about Kings Dominion or Carowinds pre-Cedar Fair ownership. I fully expect Six Flags wants to run the Carowinds playbook here and I have no reason to believe it won't pay off. Over Georgia is a major park on the rise in my assessment. There is one exception to this rosy forecast though—see the Six Flags White Water section for that.
Six Flags Over Texas
- Least Concern
- The original Six Flags now seems to enjoy the invincible Texas Six Flags plot armor provided by Jeffrey Siebert. Like Over Georgia, I fully expect Six Flags is excited to run the similar-market-proven playbook from Fiesta Texas at this property and, hopefully, reap the rewards. There's a nonzero chance the Dallas/Fort Worth market doesn't respond quite as well as San Antonio has, but like the weaker-end-of-Least-Concern rating that I gave Six Flags New England, I think it would take a lot to knock this park out of Six Flags' good graces.
Six Flags St. Louis
- Endangered
- I don't think this is the most at-risk park on this list, but I do definitely believe it's Endangered. Like with Michigan's Adventure, the vibes feel bad to me. In a medium-sized chain downsizing, I think this would definitely be among the parks cut. It's almost certainly one of the "little mini cash cows" which immediately puts it at some level of risk per the Q3 earnings call, but this park does seem to have a comorbidity or two as well. First off, it's a park that seems to suffer from some of the same reputational issues that faced Six Flags America—a perception that it's a dirty, poorly maintained park full of old, rundown attractions. Like Six Flags America, the perception re: the age of St. Louis' attractions is honestly pretty fair too—with SFStL actually having an even worse, more poorly-aged attraction selection than Six Flags America I'd argue. I think there's a fair chance Six Flags tries a bit of cap-ex here before making the call, but I don't think that lifeline a given. If a press release came out next Spring announcing St. Louis was shutting down at the end of the '26 season, I wouldn't be surprised. Long-term I'm more confident that Dorney is doomed, but if the chain just wants to offload a distressed park quickly (as they did with Six Flags America), I think Six Flags St. Louis is probably one of the chain's most obvious problem children at the moment. Potentially the park's saving grace? Its land may be nearly worthless—that is what sets it apart from Six Flags America in my mind.
Six Flags White Water OR Over Georgia's Hurricane Harbor
- Critically Endangered
- This is a weird one. I'm lumping Six Flags White Water, a separately ticketed, dedicated water park about half an hour north of Six Flags Over Georgia, together with Six Flags Over Georgia's on-site, non-separately-gated water park, Hurricane Harbor. As touched upon in the Over Georgia section, currently, Six Flags Over Georgia is a partnership arrangement between Six Flags and a collection of private investors. Six Flags White Water's ownership is structured the same way. Six Flags has already agreed to exercise their right to buy out their Atlanta area partners to bring all of their Atlanta interests directly under Six Flags corporate's wings. When that transaction completes (2027 I believe?) it's my assessment that either Six Flags White Water or Over Georgia's Hurricane Harbor will be doomed. I tend to believe Six Flags will want to centralize their Atlanta operations and sell off the (likely pretty valuable) White Water land for a quick buck, but I could imagine a world in which they decide to do the opposite and shutter the on-site Hurricane Harbor in favor of boosting the entirely-separately-ticketed White Water park to the north. Long-term, I just don't see why Six Flags would be motivated to keep both of the properties and I suspect they only lasted this long due to the current, soon-to-be-deprecated, complex ownership situation of the Atlanta area Six Flags parks.
Valleyfair
- Endangered
- Here's another quintessential "little mini cash cow" that seems to fit the profile of the parks Six Flags was warning about in their Q3 call perfectly. I don't think there's good reason to believe Valleyfair has some large gap between its current performance and its potential ceiling, Cedar Fair never showed much interest in investing into this property, and in the new chain, it is almost certainly shoved far, far lower on the totem pole than it was pre-merger. The land is likely pretty easy to offload, the attraction collection is aging, and Six Flags likely views this property much akin to Michigan's Adventure—a park that has likely reached its plateau. It would be tragic to see part of the original Cedar Fair namesake bulldozed, but, like Six Flags St. Louis or Michigan's Adventure, I could see Valleyfair evaporating depressingly quickly in a medium-sized corporate downsizing.
Worlds of Fun
- Near Threatened
- I'm definitely concerned that Six Flags may think this park has reached a sort of plateau, but I'm not concerned that it's in any trouble in the immediate future as I think Worlds of Fun's plateau is at a far higher altitude than the likes of Six Flags St. Louis, Valleyfair, Michigan's Adventure, and even Dorneypark. Worlds of Fun is the rare Six Flags park with a water park with its own gate and onsite lodging (in this case a campground). The build-out here seems far more monitizable than the smaller, more archetypical "little mini cash cows" we discussed previously. One could even say it's uniquely well suited to pick up a little traffic from Six Flags St. Louis three hours away if, say, something unfortunate were to happen to SFStL. Like Discovery Kingdom or Kings Dominion, I have World of Fun at Near Threatened not because I think it's in any immediate danger, but because it is certainly less core than the likes of Carowinds, Over Georgia, Six Flags Great America, etc and it's feasible to me that, given a series of unsuccessful investments or similar substantial headwinds, the park could, one day, find itself endangered—I just definitely don't think it is at the moment.
I'd be super curious to know where other people stand on this analysis and see what other people's lists look like. I'm no expert and I'm sure there are dozens of angles for each and every one of the parks above that I've failed to adequately consider so definitely speak up if you have thoughts!
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