Impacts of the Six Flags/Cedar Fair Merger on SFA

[kiltguy2112]

With todays announcement, do you think that this will be good or bad for our little local park?

Cedar Fair, Six Flags officially merge together

Cedar Fair, the Cedar Point parent company, and Six Flags are merging together, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal.

fox8.com

 

[rswashdc]

Maybe good, but at the expense of KD and Dorney. The problem with shutting down SFA is the land isn't valuable enough for any use but single family housing, which is probably less than the current park value.

 

[Brianloveskd]

There is a 0% chance that this new version of Six Flags would see SFA as a more valuable property than Kings Dominion. I live in Northern Virginia and a majority of the people up here would rather drive to KD than SFA even though it is significantly closer.

 

[mtpelepele]

I could easily see them shutting down SFA, but keeping and expanding the water park.

 

[Zachary]

There is a 0% chance that this new version of Six Flags would see SFA as a more valuable property than Kings Dominion. I live in Northern Virginia and a majority of the people up here would rather drive to KD than SFA even though it is significantly closer.

That's a commentary on the current state of Six Flags America though, not a result of people's love of driving down to Kings Dominion.

If new Six Flags is thinking long-term, I can definitely imagine an argument for redirecting Mid-Atlantic investment to the the huge, prime plot of land in the DC suburbs between one of the most economically stable and prosperous regions in the country and Baltimore, another large metro area without a park of its own.

Everyone would rather drive to KD now, but in ten years, if KD is stagnant and SFA has added a couple great coasters and massively improved the guest experience, I think that DC to Doswell drive won't be appealing at all anymore for Northern VA folks.

 

[horsesboy]

That's a commentary on the current state of Six Flags America though, not a result of people's love of driving down to Kings Dominion.

If new Six Flags is thinking long-term, I can definitely imagine an argument for redirecting Mid-Atlantic investment to the the huge, prime plot of land in the DC suburbs between one of the most economically stable and prosperous regions in the country and Baltimore, another large metro area without a park of its own.

Everyone would rather drive to KD now, but in ten years, if KD is stagnant and SFA has handed a couple great coasters and massively improved the guest experience, I think that DC to Doswell drive won't be appealing at all anymore for Northern VA folks.

The other possibility is that regulators would force the sell off of properties in the same market as part of the terms off approval. It's even possible that they could require an as is sell meaning no you can't rezone it for housing and just remove the rides and sell the land. If this were the case SFA might be a VERY attractive purchase for any of the three other major regional park players.

 

[rswashdc]

That's a commentary on the current state of Six Flags America though, not a result of people's love of driving down to Kings Dominion.

If new Six Flags is thinking long-term, I can definitely imagine an argument for redirecting Mid-Atlantic investment to the the huge, prime plot of land in the DC suburbs between one of the most economically stable and prosperous regions in the country and Baltimore, another large metro area without a park of its own.

Everyone would rather drive to KD now, but in ten years, if KD is stagnant and SFA has added a couple great coasters and massively improved the guest experience, I think that DC to Doswell drive won't be appealing at all anymore for Northern VA folks.

If this merger had happened a year ago, CFs dive and wing coaster plans could easily have been redirected to SFA. Get a decent chef in there and that park starts looking a lot more attractive.

 

[Hamlet]

Would be an interesting concept if the new Six Flags sold off SFA to Disney, then we could see the Disney's America concept reborn on that plot of land.

 

[rswashdc]

Would be an interesting concept if the new Six Flags sold off SFA to Disney, then we could see the Disney's America concept reborn on that plot of land.

No way they give up SFA to a competitor. They have a pseudo monopoly of the DC/Baltimore area now. More likely you see regional passes and tactical investment to drive guests where they want them.

 

[horsesboy]

No way they give up SFA to a competitor. They have a pseudo monopoly of the DC/Baltimore area now. More likely you see regional passes and tactical investment to drive guests where they want them.

The FTC still has a say and has the power to force their hand. Disney isn't likely but I could see SEAS, Merlin, or Hersch taking it. Not saying it will happen but that it could.

 

[warfelg]

The FTC still has a say and has the power to force their hand. Disney isn't likely but I could see SEAS, Merlin, or Hersch taking it. Not saying it will happen but that it could.

I think this is SFA’s most likely fate. Just picking Lancaster PA (since I lived there) in a 3 hour drive you would have:
HERCO - Hershey Park
Palace - Dutch Wonderland
SEAS - Sesame Place
SF - SFA, Dorney, SFGA, KD

They wouldn’t have a full monopoly on the area, but if you took out DW and SP for being purely for children then you are left in a 4v1 battle.

 

[paintervision]

SFA's not a bad park, but it was already lost inside the wider Six Flags chain.

Yes, there is room to grow, and there's a nice (DC/Baltimore) metro within comfortable driving distance to this park... but there's also a ton of competition. Could be more of a family park if they decide to go that way, and give up on the larger thrill rides like Batwing. Maybe de-flagging the park to rebrand it would be a good idea? That would take money, time, vision....

I said the same thing about Geauga Lake before it closed, too. Like it was running with a 3-train B&M (Dominator) to low crowds. Lower ticket prices, lower (or remove!) parking fees, remove some expensive thrill rides, offer more catering packages for company picnics, focus more on family coasters/rides and less on upcharges... basically try to be more like Holiday World with a combined amusement and waterpark, and hit a "quality over quantity" approach. Give it time to figure out a direction to take the park in, and go slow. But we see where that all wound up.

 

[Chorizo]

Six Flags America has a lot of potential, and I'd love to see a new major player take a stab at it, but I don't foresee it doing well under the new Six Flags chain. Give it to Herschend or Merlin and see if they can make something great out of this. It has the advantage of a large amount of land, a major suburban area to pull from (a lot of whom don't visit the park because of the negative Six Flags connotations and the lack of investment), and a major tourist destination nearby in Washington DC (and the Mormon temple lol). With good investment and a decent vision, I think this park could do very very well.

 

[horsesboy]

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[Mushroom]

If either KD or SFA were the get the Geauga Lake treatment (and I’m not convinced either would), I don’t see how SFA wouldn’t be the logical choice to kill off.

Especially from the southern portion of NOVA/DMV, KD isn’t substantially farther away than SFA, especially when you factor in traffic. (London County is about 70 minutes from SFA while KD is about 90, for example.)

More importantly:

• Investment: SFA would require significant capital investment over many years to improve enough to adequately serve the wealthy DMV market. Even then, there’s no guaranteed payoff for the investment. KD, by contrast, is much farther along. Why invest potentially hundreds of millions when you already could have a potential monopoly on the market with a more viable park just a bit father south?
• Property value: I’m not convinced that SFA, in its densely and increasingly populated area, wouldn’t be more valuable if sold off and used for housing development. KD, meanwhile, sits on relatively worthless land in the middle of nowhere. As I believe @Gavin has suggested before, SFA may be more valuable as real estate than it is as a theme park. The opportunity cost of selling off KD’s land vs. SFA’s is a no-brainer.

Obviously, I don’t want either park to die — no park should suffer Geauga’s fate. But in a world where there can only be one Six Flags park within driving distance of DC, I struggle to see the logic in choosing SFA over KD as the park to spare.

 

[Gavin]

Wild thought, they segment overlapping parks. For example, make SFA a smaller children's focused park with a waterpark and KD the more traditional theme park.

 

[Zachary]

Wild thought, they segment overlapping parks. For example, make SFA a smaller children's focused park with a waterpark and KD the more traditional theme park.

In my opinion, this is the absolute best possible option. A good, high quality children's park in the DC area would do gangbusters. It could shed the Six Flags name and leverage all three of the chain's IPs for different themed lands. If a smaller property like that existed in the immediate DC area it would make combination passes with KD further south way more appealing. Together, it's easy to see it being a potent combination to fight off Hershey.

 

[warfelg]

In my opinion, this is the absolute best possible option. A good, high quality children's park in the DC area would do gangbusters. It could shed the Six Flags name and leverage all three of the chain's IPs for different themed lands. If a smaller property like that existed in the immediate DC area it would make combination passes with KD further south way more appealing. Together, it's easy to see it being a potent combination to fight off Hershey.

I want to take this a step further:
Take Superman and Batwing to KD too.

 

[Gavin]

During the presentation call a question was brought up concerning anti-trust specifically with KD and SFA. Their response was that they don't see it being an issue, that they view "Other Forms of Entertainment Outside of the Home" (such as bowling, skiing, sports games, theaters, etc) as their real competition. They mentioned that they only capture about 5% of consumer spending in this category.

 

[paintervision]

I want to take this a step further:
Take Superman and Batwing to KD too.

Batwing is in a weird spot, and has a lot of upkeep and uptime issues. It's also far too aggressive of a thrill machine for the park, and has no business being there. Because it's in the back of the park, it also opens late (looks like 11:30 openings). The park's other 54" rides are Superman, Firebird, and Joker's Jinx... and I think those are more approachable or repeatable thrill rides. Batwing is the least necessary ride in that group, IMO. (And that's coming from someone who LIKES the Flying Dutchmen rides). Reminds me of the dynamic when Chang was in Kentucky Kingdom... decent ride, but way too big/aggressive for the park it's in, extreme overkill.

If it was in a larger park, I think it would get more attention. As it is, the ride has no business being in a park with 9 coasters total. Swap that out for a family ride (Vekoma Suspended coaster or similar) or even an RMC single rail (that's more like Jersey Devil) closer to the hill by catering, and I think the park would get some buzz again.