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Aug 23, 2017
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New Thread for stock discussion.

I noticed that cedar fair is really having a rough time. Bad quarterly report seems to have plummeted the value. Price currently at about 51.33 is by far the worst it’s Been on 52 weeks.
 

b.mac

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New Thread for stock discussion.

I noticed that cedar fair is really having a rough time. Bad quarterly report seems to have plummeted the value. Price currently at about 51.33 is by far the worst it’s Been on 52 weeks.

Its high point in the past year was in February, trading at over $70. There's been an $18 drop in the span of 6 months. That's mildly concerning.
 

Ice

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I don't see it as very concerning, Cedar Fair is a great amusement franchise and I think it will take a lot to wipe them off the map.

Worst case you see slight budget cuts similar to SEAS, except the consequences won't be as noticeable since most of the SEAS casualties came in the form of theming and attention to detail, whereas Cedar Fair doesn;t care so much about the intense theming and immersion.

It could be interesting to see what budget cuts impact for Cedar Fair parks
 

mtorange

Grand Carnivale, Haunt, and WinterFest Aficionado
Jul 26, 2014
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I listened in to their Q2 conference call and it seems that the main reason for their declining attendance numbers is the weather for this season has been abnormally wet. I've noticed this, especially for Kings Dominion in particular. The weather in Virginia has been very rainy this year, especially throughout the mid-summer. Now, I don't know how Kings Dominion's attendance numbers have fared, but I would like to think that Twisted Timbers has helped those numbers a little bit.

One thing people are overlooking is that the second half of the year is ALWAYS better for amusement parks, especially Cedar Fair. The chain's Halloween events have always brought bigger crowds to their parks; for KD in particular, I heard that the last Saturday of Halloween Haunt last season had the biggest crowd that the park had EVER seen at the event, with the Saturday before that being the second largest. WinterFest has also brought a fair amount of money to the few parks that have it, and Cedar Fair stressed that the rollout of WinterFest to Kings Dominion is sure to help their numbers... it is an understatement to say that a lot of eyes will be on Doswell this holiday season to see if KD performs well.

People are also worried about the longer effects of the chain's Fast Lane program. While it is making the park more money at the forefront, a lot of people who do not buy the Fast Lane are getting frustrated by the longer waits that Fast Lane unintentionally brings to the normal line as Fast Lane always gets priority. This might result in lower attendance numbers for those not buying Fast Lane, which could eventually lower the incentive of buying Fast Lane in the first place because of shorter lines. Cue domino effect.

EDIT: Added a sentence or two to my argument.
 
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Aug 23, 2017
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It’s also worth noting that the usual q4 price bump didn’t really hit CF this past year. I suspect some sort of rebound when sept-oct roll around. This company is quite large and I do t see any major long term concerns unless the price keeps dropping into next year.
 
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Mar 9, 2010
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One thing that concerned me based on the conference call and press release, is they've seen very lack luster results through July. I mean based on the press releases, in July alone, they were down about 270,000 guests in 31 days. Also, from the conversations and press release, the tone insinuated that some days are positive, but other days are very not. Obviously more days are negative. Based on the tone of the conversation they're expecting lack luster results, at the very least, through Q3. This seems to be a chain wide issue which is being exacerbated by the weather, but not the fault of the weather alone. They've even stated they aren't even expecting to hit there bottom line guidance figures they projected at the start of the year, unless they get some good momentum through August. Obviously, these are my own opinion, formed from the call and the press releases.

I just feel that 270,000 guest visit decline in 31 days, and 480,000 guest visit decline in the first 7 months, is more than weather. Especially when for Q1, they were up about 110,000 guest visits. Heck, I thought for sure they'd being having a great year because even my group of friends visited Kings Dominion (for the first time in 4 years) to try out Twisted Timber. We even tried to plan a trip to Cedar Point (with no success) for Steel Vengeance.

Why it is so concerning to me is this is a pretty big drop coming off of good solid years of growth. Almost half a million guests through 7/31 have opted not to visit their parks. Even if they have a great event season, these summer season losses are going to be hard to overcome. I'm just really shocked that the line-up of new attractions didn't drive a modest increase in attendance so they could see a modest increase in stock price.

Curious to see how SEAS faired in Q2 now. With Six Flags less than anticipated performance and Cedar Fair's pretty big declines, I'm trying not to have any expectations. I really thought Cedar Fair would be sitting pretty right now.
 
Aug 23, 2017
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SEAS still seems to be on the upswing, and somewhat surprisingly so is SIX. Given how regular SIX has been over the past several years, I suppose it's been earned. I find it very interesting how consistently on target the earnings reports have been. Like, spot on every time...
 
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Mar 9, 2010
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SEAS still seems to be on the upswing, and somewhat surprisingly so is SIX. Given how regular SIX has been over the past several years, I suppose it's been earned. I find it very interesting how consistently on target the earnings reports have been. Like, spot on every time...

For me being spot on, every time, leads to a reaction just like FUN experienced when Q2 was released. They had been hitting the notes in near perfect unison. One faltering step and you get a modest decline.

Personally, I set an unrealistic expectation for SEAS this year. 5-6% attendance and revenue growth. Little ole me ended up shocked so far this year with the results. Still standing on no expectation island. When SEAS was relatively flat in 2016, I thought 2017 would be the year. Proved me horribly wrong. If they're actually up my personal goal, they'd be over 2016 results.
 
Aug 23, 2017
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So SIX crashes to $50 today after barely missing its Q3 target. It was Around $75 a month ago and was much higher than any other stock in the industry
 
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